The SchifferLine

Timely Real Estate……………………………………………15 March, 2020

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Happy St. Patrick’s Day….everyone loves the Irish

This year, St. Patrick’s Day will be observed on Tuesday, March 17. Even if you’re not Irish, you can be on March 17. The significance of March 17 is that it’s said to be the date of St. Patrick’s death in the late 5th century (circa A.D.) Today, it is a day of revelry and a celebration of all things Irish. Just don’t forget to wear green!

Los Angeles doesn’t have an official St. Patrick’s Day Parade like New York, which has been cancelled — most of our celebrations take place in local Irish pubs …or at home.  Ireland, on the other hand, has suspended all St. Patrick’s Day parades because of the coronavirus. I wish all of you Irish out there (the real Irish and the one-day-only Irish) — Happy St. Patrick’s Day and wearing of the green!

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Sales “boom”…up 34% through February

We continued to see strong sales volumes through February as buyers took advantage of historic low mortgage rates in the five communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City, and Brentwood.  Sales in these five areas were up 34% compared to this time in 2019, with a total volume of $542 million vs. $403 million a year ago.

March appeared to be clicking along at the beginning of the month, but to be quite honest, these February numbers reflect what was happening in the market before the real impact of this global virus took hold and for the most part reflect sales that took place at the end of 2019.  The good news is that mortgage rates remain very low and, yes, it’s a good time to buy or refinance.  I’m going through a re-fi now and the rates have gone up slightly in the past few days, but they’re still near historic lows.  Basically, for me, my loan adjusts in October, and so while my payment is low and will continue to be so until October, I decided to take advantage of the interest rates now as we don’t know what they will be in the fall.

Year to date, sale volumes were up in Beverly Hills by $54 million compared to volumes at this time in 2019, and Beverly Hills Post Office was up $90 million and Westwood/Century City was up $24 million vs. 2019.  Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, the major leader in recent months was down $6 million, and Brentwood was off $26 million vs. February 2019.  Santa Monica February sales were $98 million.

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Median sales prices up, too

This is not a new trend — median sales prices in our area have continually moved up over 12 months, with some areas up, some down each month.  Beverly Hills is the “down” area this month, with its median sales price of $6.520 million — down 11% compared to 2019 of $7.400 million.  But Westwood/Century City MSP was up 40% for this past February compared to 2019 at $2.607 million.  Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 21% at $1.940 million vs. $1.604 in 2019 at this time.  Brentwood was also up — 19% at $2.995 million over 2019 February of $2.512 million.  Santa Monica came in with $2.374 million median sales price for February 2020.

What is interesting to note is that “Days on Market “for homes listed in these five communities continue to show modest improvements as homes are selling closer to the original sales price, which means we are seeing less over-priced homes which languish in the marketplace.  In comparing February’s DOM vs. January’s DOM, most of those properties sold in anywhere from 16% to 64% less time. Buyers are much more sophisticated today and they shy away from overpriced homes for obvious reasons.

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Mortgage forbearance options available…

The Federal Housing Finance Agency announced that borrowers who are unable to make their monthly mortgage payments due to COVID-19, also known as the coronavirus, have options to postpone payments. FHFA Director Mark Calabria reminded mortgage servicers this week to offer forbearance options to those who are affected as the virus continues its spread through the U.S.

“To meet the needs of borrowers who may be impacted by the coronavirus, last week Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reminded mortgage servicers that hardship forbearance is an option for borrowers who are unable to make their monthly mortgage payment,” Calabria said in a statement. “For borrowers that may be experiencing a hardship, I encourage you to reach out to your servicer.”

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Economists say now’s the time to lock in low mortgage rates

This is good advice:  If you’re thinking of buying or re-financing, economists across the board are urging you to get your paperwork ready now.  Mortgage rates reached the lowest point in 50 years last week, and one economist predicted they could possibly go lower. As we all know, interest rates are tied into the bond rates, and when those rates go to low as they did recently, mortgage rates go up to protect the bond market.   The Treasury yield began last week by hitting a record low as well. Should consumers consider locking in a mortgage rate now or, instead, play the waiting game?  Most say ‘yes’.

Lending Tree Chief Economist Tendayi Kapfidze said it’s hard to anticipate what rates are going to do, but if you’re a consumer and there are already savings on the table, “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” He recommends you go ahead and lock in a rate…. We don’t know how this is going to play out he stated.

Please note — there are fees often associated with a rate lock, but if the rate is so low — and expected to rise — the actual cost could be negligible. Short-term rate locks — those of less than 60 days — range from free to roughly 0.25-0.5%of the total loan.  If you need a longer period, the rate goes up.

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Get ready for spring…spreading your roots!

Yes, it’s that time again.  Although Spring officially arrives March 19, it feels more like winter, doesn’t it?  Here are some handy hints from noted landscape designer Nan Sterman…. #1 — With or without rain, your smart irrigation controller should adjust to schedule based on the weather, which has been cold and wet recently…Make sure it’s working correctly.  #2 — when it starts to warm up, prune away dead leaves and stems…now is a good time to do that.  #3 Finish pruning your flowering shrubbery and perennials before flower buds form.

One of the key points she recommends is to renew your garden mulch…using a 3-inch layer that will hold the moisture in the soil, moderate soil temperatures, and keep weed seeds from sprouting.  These are always irritating.

As the organic matter breaks down, it feeds beneficial soil microbes, improves draining in heavy soils and improves the water-holding capacity of fast-draining soils.  And always, keep mulch a few inches away from stems and trunks.

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GenXers most likely to be denied mortgage

According to the National Association of Realtors, mortgage applicants 40 to 54 years old—those in Generation X—have the highest loan denial rates.  In their 2020 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends report, low credit scores and high debt-to-income ratios are the chief causes—perhaps lingering problems from the Great Recession. Lenders denied 7% of Gen Xers’ applications, compared to a 5% denial rate across all other age groups.

Generation X has a higher share of denied mortgages because they are most likely to have sold a distressed house or have been underwater during the recession. Plus, they may have taken on more debt from their children’s student loans according to Jessica Lautz, NAR’s vice president of demographics and behavior insights, told Yahoo! Finance.

15  % of Gen Xers also have sold a distressed property since becoming a homeowner. That is the highest of any other age group, according to NAR data. Many Gen Xers have also taken out student loans for their children. Credit card debt and student loan debt are big burdens on this age group, the data shows.

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The Ultra-Rich are investing more in real estate 

This is not a surprise — at least not to us on Los Angeles’s Westside — but the ultra-wealthy may be looking to expand their real estate portfolios. The industry is watching closely as the number of high-net-worth individuals grows: About 31,000 more ultra-rich people emerged globally in 2019, which is an annual growth rate of 6%, according to a new report from U.K.-based real estate firm Knight Frank and a New York based real estate fire. The growth rate of the ultra-rich, or those with a net worth of at least $30 million, was 4% in 2018.

North America saw the highest uptick in this segment, adding 13,911 people in 2019—higher than Asia’s 11,788 and Europe’s 4,682. Ultra-high-net-worth individuals’ ranks are expected to grow by about 27% over the next five years globally, according to the report. By 2024, there could be about 650,000 people around the world who each have at least $30 million. The countries seeing the fastest growth among this population are India (projected to see a 73% increase by 2024), followed by Egypt, Vietnam, and China.

About 43% of 620 wealth advisers who manage the mega-rich’s money say they would increase their real estate exposure in 2020. Notably, Asian buyers have made the U.S. their top destination for residential real estate outside of their home country.

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Buyers can expect Spring bidding wars

With a severely limited supply of homes on the market and the lowest mortgage rates in history, house hunters should expect steep competition this spring.  The new coronavirus remains a wild card for the housing market, but if the scare is short-lived, buyers are poised to swoop down in droves. The wild card in all of this is the uncertainty of the impact of the stock market and the global economy.  With my new listing at 2218 Canyonback in Mountaingate, after being on the market for 5 days, we received a fairly decent offer, which we have issued a counter offer, unfortunately the buyer elected not to proceed. At my open house last weekend, we had about 8 guests, with most of them expressing interest in the house!

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What is happening in my world?

We have had a strong response to my listing at 2218 Canyonback in Mountaingate.  Given the drippy weather, concerns about the corona virus and the stock market, it will be interesting to see if it continues.

While the concerns about the virus are certainly real and valid  (my Mom is 97 so we are watching her very carefully and keeping her quarantined in the house for the most part – cabin fever comes into play), I  personally am also trying to keep this whole thing in perspective, do whatever I need to do to stay healthy and hope you all are as well.

In my next mailing which will be the quarterly update, I will be sending you a copy of the recent reminder all property owners in Los Angeles County received regarding brush clearance.  Given that we have had two major fires in our area in the last two years, it is imperative that we all make sure that the brush clearance on our property is taken care of.

For those of you who receive the Schiffer Line via snail mail, I am inviting you to participate in a fun cross word puzzle contest.  In order to win, you will need to email me a photo of your completed cross word puzzle  to ceschiffer@gmail.com   You can use the information in the various articles in this issue of the Schiffer Line for the clues.  The first person who submits the correct answer will receive a gift certificate for Trader Joes.  I love doing cross word puzzles and hope you do also!

Please let me know how I can assist you with any and all of your real estate needs and/or answer any questions you might have.  Looking forward to seeing you.

Carole Schiffer, Realtor Coldwell-Banker Residential Brokerage/Brentwood Office 310-442-1384 (office) or e-mail me at carole@caroleschiffer.com  www.caroleschiffer.com

CalBRE  00677619

©2020 Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC.  Coldwell Banker is a registered trademark licensed to Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC 234567An Equal Opportunity Company.  Equal Housing Opportunity.  Owned and Operated by NRT LLC

The SchifferLine

Timely Real Estate……………………………………………1 March, 2020

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Mortgage rates plunged to 8-year low

Here’s some good news:  Mortgage rates are falling fast, and they could sink even lower according to Mortgage News Daily, a respected real estate journal.  They reported that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.34% last Monday, a rate last reached in 2012 and briefly in 2016.

It was also noted that long-term mortgage rates loosely follow the 10-year Treasury yield. While the coronavirus fears are hitting financial markets and prompting bond yields to move lower; mortgage rates are following suit. 

The report pointed out that when rates fall this quickly, it’s not so much that big banks draw the line on mortgage rates, but rather, the underlying mortgage-backed securities market refuses to improve as quickly as the Treasury market.    

Refinance applications surged 165% annually as homeowners rushed to lock in rates, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports. Restrictive lending, however, may block some mortgage shoppers from taking advantage of the low rates.

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Health and Wellness lead the global luxury market trends

According to the recent Coldwell Banker Global Luxury Market study done in 2019, three-quarters of people shopping for a home in the U.S. consider housing an essential or extremely important contributor to their health. When asked what constitutes health and well-being, 75% responded “having more energy,” while 65% said “feeling better rested.” More than half mentioned “achieving a happier state of mind” and “increasing mental alertness.”

From custom designed homes and new condominium buildings to planned residential communities, the inclusion of wellness structurally as well as in the design, features and amenities, is becoming the rule rather than the exception, especially for the affluent in their real estate choices in some ways replacing the long standing dictum of “location, location, location”.

Luxury is the trend leader in wellness, but developers are starting to leverage the benefits to create more affordable smart-healthy homes and neighborhoods. There is a sharpening focus on wellness at the center of new home conception, design, and creation.

Advancements in science and technology have produced longer life spans around the world, but also enabled daily human life to become more sedentary, presenting people with the unappealing possibility of living longer but unhealthier lives.

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California and LA to experience less growth

Despite a booming economy through the U.S., California and Los Angeles in particular, are headed for a ‘slowed-down’ economy.  But it wasn’t so long ago that economic growth in California and Los Angeles far surpassed that of the nation.

Those days are coming to an end, according to the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., a nonprofit group that works with local businesses.  In 2018, while the U.S. economy expanded by 2.9%, California’s grew by 4.3% and Los Angeles County’s by 3.7%. In 2019, economic growth slowed to 2.3% in the U.S., 2.6% in California and 1.6% in L.A. County.
This year, California’s growth will slow to 2%, and L.A. County’s economy will expand by just 1.8% — close to the nation’s 1.9%, the LAEDC predicted Wednesday in its annual forecast presented to business executives and government officials last week.

The assessment is in line with other forecasts. “Though the pace of real GDP growth has slowed this year, there are few signs that the longest U.S. expansion is on its last legs,” the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reported last November. “The consensus of professional forecasters is that real GDP growth will dip below 2% in 2020.”

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Fun Facts about Leap Year!
Leap days are needed to keep our calendar in alignment with the Earth’s revolutions around the Sun. It takes the Earth approximately 365.242189 days – or 365 days, 5 hours, 48 minutes, and 45 seconds – to circle once around the Sun. This is called a tropical year. Without an extra day on February 29 nearly every four years, we would lose almost six hours every year. After only 100 years, our calendar would be off by approximately 24 days.

All the other months in the Julian calendar have 30 or 31 days, but February lost out to the ego of Roman Emperor Caesar Augustus.  Under his predecessor Julius Caesar, February had 30 days and the month named after him – July – had 31. August had only 29 days.  When Caesar Augustus became Emperor, he added two days to ‘his’ month to make August the same as July.  So, February lost out to August in the battle of the extra days.Are you a Leap Year baby?  Happy Birthday!

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49% Admit strained relations in buying house 
This certainly isn’t news to many. Forty-nine % of buyers admit that house hunting with their partner strained their relationship, according to a survey from Porch.com, a home remodeling website. Porch surveyed more than 980 homeowners.
Nearly one in four homeowners say their current home does not have all the features that their partner considers important. Certain home features tended to lead to the most bickering among couples, particularly wood- burning fireplaces and hardwood flooring, the survey found.
Indeed, a separate survey found that 77% of Americans who have purchased a home and 71% of those who have sold a home with a significant other in the last decade admit to arguing during the process, according to a survey conducted by The Harris Poll.

Buyers said they most often fought over the size or style of the home to purchase, the home’s must-have features, the location or neighborhood to buy in, and the budget. As for sellers, they tended to argue over financial decisions involved, such as what price to list the home for, whether to drop the price, and whether to accept an offer.
Other common disagreements involved whether or not to make repairs, strangers walking through the home during an open house, and keeping the house clean for showings.

One of the pieces of advice I give all of my buyer clients is to make two lists for themselves individually, one a “must have list”, and the other the “fantasy list”.  Then as a couple, repeat the process, but as a couple.  It eliminates a lot of problems, and many times highlights what they are both looking for.  They should also be prepared to throw all of that out when they walk into a house that may not have any or most of the items on their list, but “rings all of their respective bells”. I know about that personally as it happened to me.

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Nation’s delinquency rate flattens out to 3.9%
In November 2019, 3.9% of home mortgages were in some stage of delinquency, down from 4% a year earlier and the lowest for the month of November in more than 20 years, according to the latest CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Report

The measure, also known as the overall delinquency rate, includes all home loans 30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure. For the month of November historically, the share of delinquent mortgages peaked in 2009 at 11.5%. Since March 2018, the overall delinquency rate each month has been lower than during the pre-crisis period of 2000 through 2006, when the rate averaged 4.7%.

The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.3% in November 2019, down from 1.5% in November 2018. The serious delinquency rate has stood at 1.3% since April 2019. The foreclosure inventory rate – the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process – was 0.4% in November 2019, unchanged from a year earlier.

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More couples delay marriage…home first!
Is the declining number of marriages contributing to fewer first-time home buyers? In the 1980s, the number of married couples in the ranks of first-time buyers peaked at 75%. Flash forward to today, when only 53% of first-time buyers are married couples, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
So, who are the other buyers making up the housing market today? The share of unmarried couples purchasing their first home is now matching single females at 17%, the largest share recorded by NAR to date.Also increasing is the share of “galentines” buying a home together, notes Jessica Lautz, NAR’s vice president of demographics and behavioral insights, at the association’s Economists’ Outlook blog. Galentines refers to platonic friendships, such as roommates. These buyers have made a notable jump, from 2% to 4% of the market in the last year, Lautz notes.

Unmarried couples and roommate buyers may have an advantage over single buyers helping them to increase their numbers: dual incomes. “Dual incomes allow them to navigate the housing market and perhaps allow them to purchase a home that is at a higher price point where they may face less competition in the buying market,” Lautz writes.

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California reopening grants for earthquake help
Putting off an earthquake retrofit of your house? California is reopening applications for grants of up to $3,000 to fund seismic strengthening of older homes that can slide off their foundations.

There are an estimated 1.2 million California homes with a deficiency that can render them unlivable after strong shaking. It involves houses that were built before 1980, but especially before 1940, that are a few steps off the ground and have a crawl space between the living space and the ground the house sits on.

The problem is the homes haven’t been properly braced and bolted to the foundation. Walls and wood beams that keep the house off the ground aren’t fastened tightly to the ground, and the lack of grip can cause the home to be shoved off the foundation — as if the shaking has broken the building’s knees, and a rug has been pulled from underneath the home.

If you think your home needs help, please visit this website: https://www.earthquakebracebolt.com

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Speaking of Moving & Shaking

For those of you who enjoy doing cross word puzzles and receive the Schiffer Line via snail mail, starting with the next issue of the Schiffer Line in two weeks, you will be receiving a cross word puzzle linked to articles in the newsletter which you will need to complete and send in via my email address.  There will be a prize for the first person who gets the most correct answers.  

Please remember all responses will need to be via email ONLY at ceschiffer@gmail.com.

Please stop by my open house at my new listing at 2218 Canyonback on the 8^th and 15^th of March from 2-5PM .
Of course, it can also be seen by appointment any time before then.  It is priced at $2,775,000 and will be in the MLS with photos on the 3^rd.
It will be a treat to see and priced to sell!

A lot of going on behind the scene with regard to   the rapid transit proposals for the Sepulveda Corridor as well as the Berggruen Institute. 

I very much look forward to hearing from and seeing you. Please let me know how you like the changes we are making in my marketing and how I can assist you with all of your real estate needs.

Carole Schiffer, Realtor Coldwell Banker Realty/Brentwood Office
310-442-1384 (office) or e-mail me at carole@caroleschiffer.com 
www.caroleschiffer.com

CalBRE  00677619

©2020 Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC.  Coldwell Banker is a registered trademark licensed to Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC 234567An Equal Opportunity Company.  Equal Housing Opportunity.  Owned and Operated by NRT LLC

The SchifferLine

Timely Real Estate……………………………………………15 February, 2020

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2020 Starts off with a ‘bang’…. January sales surge

Starting last Spring, real estate sales has been steadily surpassing previous year-to-year volumes on the Westside, but in January, sales leaped off the charts, showing a 32% increase in total sales volume for the five communities

I regularly report each month in The Schiffer Line — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City and Brentwood.    

Total sales volume through January 31, 2020, for these five was $284 million vs. $214 million for January 2019, thus the 32% surge.  That’s amazing considering there were no large transactions as we had in December except the $150 million Bel-Air sale.  The leader in sales volume was Beverly Hi

lls Post Office with a plus of $58 million over January sales in 2019…. Westwood/Century City was up $17 million in sales volume, and Brentwood was up $36 million.  Beverly Hills and Bel-Air/Holmby Hills were down slightly from a year ago.  Venice, one of the communities I regularly cover as well, was down 35% from the previous year, with $31 million sales in January 2019 vs. $19 million in January 2020.

The major transactions include one in Beverly Hills –$15 million sale, BHPO— $37 million, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills –$24 million and Brentwood –$20 million.  What January’s performance is telling us that we have entered our “new normal” — not exactly the same in the pre-recession period (as we’re still behind in 2007 dollars because of inflation), but overall, our communities are showing strength across the board.  That’s good news.

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Median sales prices continue their ups, downs

One month does not a year make, and although we had a strong sales surge in January in these five communities, we are still going through the same ups and downs as we did in 2019 — median sales prices are just bouncing around from month to month. But this is normal, too.

There is no trend for this year at this early date, but based on sales in January, the “ups” include Beverly Hills Post Office median sales prices grew 21% to $2.298 million compared to a year ago.  Westwood/Century City was up 39% to $2.593 million…and Brentwood was up 66% to $4.150 million, one the highest in recent years, but again, this is probably an anomaly, we will have to wait and see.

On the negative side, Beverly Hills was down 55% to $5.300 million (BH had a phenomenal January in 2019), Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was off  30% to $1.631 million (which is very low for this area), and Venice was down 1% to $1.980 million.

With the projection that we should not experience a recession in 2020 based on current comments from the Federal Reserve, I expect that our sales performance… communities and areas I work in, will continue an upward climb in sales prices and in sales transactions as well.  Open houses were strong at the end of 2019…and continued that way in January.  I’m seeing a lot of action now that the weather has warmed up (yes, we need more rain).  2020 is starting out to be a great year…let’s keep it rolling.

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Here’s the scoop on fire insurance….

Since the Woolsey and Getty fires, our western Los Angeles County has been challenged with rebuilding and post-fire insurance issues.  There were initially mass evacuations of insurance companies leaving the state, and leaving homeowners without coverage as well.

But Governor Gavin Newsom stepped in… here is a recap of the current policy of California Insurance Commission office:

“Recent insurer actions created considerable disruption for California’s residents; particularly those who live in or near regions of the state potentially threatened by wildfires. in many communities across the state, finding affordable comprehensive fire insurance has become difficult. So difficult that real estate transactions have stalled or been cancelled due to the Governor Gavin Newsom’s October 27, 2019 declaration, “…no admitted or non-admitted insurer shall cancel or non-renew for one-year policies of residential property insurance due to wildfire risk in the following ZIP Codes:
Getty Fire — 90049, 90025, 90024, 90272, 90403, 91403, 91436, 90402, 90077, 90095.
If you reside within these ZIP codes, you will be protected by the latest edict from the Insurance Commission.

In addition, all admitted and non-admitted insurers writing residential property insurance in the state of California must offer to rescind any notices of cancellation or non-renewal issued since the Governor’s October 11, 25, or 27, 2019 Declarations, respectively, and offer to reinstate or renew the policies in place at the time of Declaration, if any such notices of cancellation or nonrenewal were issued on or after the date of the Declaration, were due to wildfire risk, and the properties are located in ZIP Codes identified by this bulletin.

I just had a conversation with my insurance agent, Karl Susman of Susman Insurance to evaluate both my fire and earthquake insurance coverage and amounts, and he was sharing with me his frustration of dealing with the different insurance companies and the rules such as the ones above as they seem to change from day to day.
Please take heed…and if you have any questions about this, please contact me…. Carole Schiffer, 310-442-1384.

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Federal Reserve rates to remain for rest of 2020

Testimony by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicates that there are no plans to raise rates this year, although there are some warning signs on the horizon connected to the corona virus epidemic that is putting the brakes on in China, which is disrupting supply chains for US manufacturers.

In his previous statements in January, Powell indicated that with the growing economy and with consumer confidence up, he saw no threat of a recession for 2020, however, in his appearance this past week in Congress, Powell said that their concerns were now focused on a less desirable inflation rate of 2%, which has been the target of the Fed for this year.

The Fed formally adopted a 2% inflation target eight years ago because officials saw that level as consistent with a healthy economy. But inflation has mostly undershot that goal, and interest rates around the world have remained at much lower levels than before the 2008 financial crisis.
“The news in general continues to be good for the consumer sector,” according to Philadelphia Fed chair, Patrick Harker. “Thanks to the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years and growth in wages, consumers are upbeat about the economy. Consumer confidence is high, and the optimism should support household spending this year.”

Nationwide…home prices increased 4%

According to CoreLogic, one of the nation’s foremost real estate trackers, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 4% in December 2019 compared with December 2018.  Prices also increased month over month by 0.3% in December 2019 compared with November 2019 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates newly released public data to provide updated results)
The CoreLogic forecast indicates home prices will increase by 5.2% on a year-over-year basis from December 2019 to December 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to increase by 0.1% from December 2019 to January 2020.
“On a national level, home prices are on an upswing,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Price growth is likely to accelerate in 2020. And while demand for homeownership has continued to increase for millennials, particularly those in their 30s, 74% admit they have had to make significant financial sacrifices to afford a home. This could become an even bigger factor as home prices reach new heights during 2020.”

We are seeing median sales price increases on the Westside, but they have steadied over the past 12 months, too.  Some areas are up one month, down the next, and as always, I follow the median sales prices on a year-to-date basis…because we see these swings in every area each month.  But we are starting off well this year.

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Mortgage applications reach highest volume since 2013

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced last week that the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, reached its highest level last week since May 2013.

The gain in the Market Composite Index for the week ending January 31 was 5% greater on a seasonally adjusted basis than the previous week, which had been adjusted to account for the shortened week due to Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.
Had the results of that week not been adjusted for the holiday, the index last week would have risen 20% compared to the previous week. The Refinance Index also reached a high since June 2013 — the index jumped by 15% and was 183% higher than the same week last year. Some indexes did fall, however.

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It’s taking longer to find a home….

Lower mortgage rates are drawing out more prospective buyers to look at properties, but house hunters are taking their time in committing.

In the final quarter of 2019, 60% of actively engaged buyers reported spending at least three months searching for a home. That is up from 58% a year earlier, according to the Housing Trends Reports from the National Association of Home Builders.

This is the fourth consecutive annual gain in the share of active buyers who have spent three months looking for a home to purchase.

“This trend is closely related to persistently low levels of inventory of new and existing homes for-sale,” notes Rose Quint, the NAHB’s assistant vice president of survey research, at its association’s Eye on Housing blog.  

While the Internet has allowed the creation of new tools for homebuyers, the frustration comes in the inability to find affordable homes for sale in their most desired locations — close to work or schools.  Therefore, homebuyers are forced to extend their searches outside the preferred areas, causing other decisions regarding transportation costs and accessibility. In the end, one can shorten the research time by working with a qualified real estate agent like myself who knows the market.

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Many Americans move for “love” …. really?

Of course, they do!  How many times have you heard from a friend or work associate when asked….” why did you move to California?”  You know the answer.  It was a “love” interest that pushed them to decide to come out West.

Consumers are willing to move—even more than 500 miles–in order to be with a significant other. Generally, the move tends to be worth it, according to a survey by Bellhops, a professional moving company. Bellhops analyzed nearly 2 million online conversations in the U.S. from June 2018 to March 2019 to find themes in moving. “Moving for love” was among those themes they found.

Sixty % of the people whose conversations involved moving for love are now married or in a long-term relationship, the study showed. Women are more likely to move for love than men.
One-third of the people who moved for love did so more than once too. Fifty-seven % said they’d do it again, if necessary, too.  Americans are willing to move long distances to be with their significant others—44% moved 500 miles or more for love, the study found.

For those who move, the majority rent an apartment. But 25% are so confident in their choice that they skip renting and buy a home in their new location once they move.  Indeed, love is on the move!

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Speaking of Love

Love is in the air! I hope you had a wonderful Valentine’s Day with the special someone or the someones in your life.

Originating as a Western Christian feast day honoring one or two early saints named Valentinus, Valentine’s Day is recognized as a significant cultural, religious, and commercial celebration of romance and romantic love in many regions around the world.
The day first became associated with romantic love within the circle of Geoffrey Chaucer in the 14th century, when the tradition of courtly love flourished. In 18th-century England, it grew into an occasion in which couples expressed their love for each other by presenting flowers, offering confectionery, and sending greeting cards (known as “valentines”). Valentine’s Day symbols that are used today include the heart-shaped outline, doves, and the figure of the winged Cupid. Since the 19th century, handwritten valentines have given way to mass-produced greeting cards.^[9] In Europe, Saint Valentine’s Keys are given to lovers “as a romantic symbol and an invitation to unlock the giver’s heart”, as well as to children to ward off epilepsy (called Saint Valentine’s Malady)

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February is Black History Month

Black History Month is an annual observance formed in the United States in the early 20th century and was known as Negro History Week.

Its foundation was Negro History Week in 1926, originated by historian Carter G. Woodson and the Association for the Study of Negro Life and History.

While this effort had some limited success, it wasn’t until 1969 when black educators and the Black United Students at Kent State University proposed Black History Month. Its success was quickly mirrored around the United States — and was endorsed by President Gerald Ford during the country’s Bicentennial celebration in 1976, which brought national recognition to the event.

Events are planned throughout the country each February to recognize the history and achievements of black citizens in all endeavors, not just in education but in all walks of life business, culture, government, arts, sports and entertainment.
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News & Gratitude

First of all, THANK YOU TO ALL OF YOU WHO HAVE PARTICIPATED IN MY “ONE WARM COAT” CAMPAIGN.  Your generosity to assist others is greatly appreciated!  I am still collecting more coats and clothes so if you still have some items in your closets you no longer use, please get in touch with me (310 442-1384 or ceschiffer@gmail.com) and I will gladly swing by and pick them up.I take them to the Peoples Concern facility in Santa Monica.

We are also collecting slightly worn and/or shoes as a companywide campaign, and my office has been amazing in the number of shoes we have collected, over 300 pairs!  I have cleaned out some from my closet that I have not worn in years. Maybe you have some in that same category also. Just let me know.

Real Estate news.  My new listing at 2218 Canyonback is finally coming on the market.  Priced at $2,775,000 it is a 5 bedroom, 4.5 bath with great views.  We are in the process of staging it now, but it can be shown before it goes into the multiple listing which will be in a week or two I have a few other homes that we are getting ready to market, but that will be a little later in the year, and like all active real estate agents, have buyers who are frustrated in the lack of luck in finding homes to buy. Please let me know if you are considering selling your home, we might be able to sell it before it actually comes on the market.

Carole Schiffer, Realtor Coldwell-Banker Residential Brokerage/Brentwood Office
310-442-1384 (office) or e-mail me at carole@caroleschiffer.com 
www.caroleschiffer.com

CalBRE  00677619

©2020 Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC.  Coldwell Banker is a registered trademark licensed to Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC 234567An Equal Opportunity Company.  Equal Housing Opportunity.  Owned and Operated by NRT LLC

Timely Real Estate……………………………………………1 February 2020

Prices and sales surged in December 

We started off 2020 with good news as year-end housing data showed improvements in both prices and sales in December.   Southern California home sales in December rose by the most in 19 months and sales surged 22.1% from December 2018. These are, indeed, impressive results to take with us into 2020 — the latest sign that the housing market is gaining steam after a prolonged slowdown.

The six-county median sales price hit a new all-time high of $550,000 last month, a 7.2% increase from a year earlier, according to data from DQNews. Sales, meanwhile, surged 22.1% from December 2018 — the largest gain since late 2016. The dramatic bounce of sales and home prices reflects the depressed state of the market a year earlier.

At the time, concerns over affordability and the direction of the economy were heightened.  We’re still facing inventory and affordability issues in Southern California, but the momentum we gained in the past two quarters clearly gives us optimism as we move into the new year.

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How much does curb appeal affect home value?

It is estimated that nearly 50% of buyers make their decision to buy a home before they get out of the car.  That’s called “curb appeal”. First impressions count, a lot!

Homes with high curb appeal tend to sell for an average of 7% more than similar houses with an uninviting exterior, according to a joint study by the University of Alabama and the University of Texas at Arlington. Further, the premium rises to as high as 14% in slower real estate markets with greater housing inventory, shows the study.

Researchers examined Google Street View photos and sales data from 88,980 properties in the Denver metro area to find how much curb appeal matters to a home’s value. The researchers found that the curb appeal of neighboring properties also has an impact on a home’s value. The appearance of the yard next door accounts for about a third of a home’s overall premium, the study notes.

Researchers considered homes to have low curb appeal if the property includes blemishes like a broken pavement or overgrown grass. Homes were considered to have high curb appeal if they included features like well-kept lawns and professional landscaping. Many appraisers evaluate a home based on interior features like the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, square footage, and home improvements.  But they don’t always take into consideration the more subjective evaluations of ‘curb appeal’.  Curb appeal?  It’s real!

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Pending homes sales fell in December

While we’re seeing an uptick in sales and prices through the end of 2019, pending home sales data sent a sobering note, too: Pending home sales fell in December, taking a step back after increasing slightly in November, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Each of the four major regions reported a drop in month-over-month contract activity, with the South experiencing the steepest fall. However, year-over-year pending home sales activity was up nationally compared to one year ago.

The Pending Home Sales Index which is a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, fell 4.9% to 103.2 in December. Year-over-year contract signings increased 4.6%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.

“Mortgage rates are expected to hold under 4% for most of 2020, while net job creation will likely exceed two million,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. While he noted that these factors are promising for the housing market, Yun cautioned that low inventory remains a significant longer-term concern.

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Many appraisers evaluate a home based on interior features like the number of bedrooms and bathrooms, square footage, and home improvements.  But they don’t always take into consideration the more subjective evaluations of ‘curb appeal’.  Curb appeal?  It’s real!

Young home buyers are stressing out….is that new?

Maybe I didn’t get the memo — was I supposed to be nervous about buying my first house?  As a real estate professional for over 35years, I deal with young buyers all the time — even older buyers get anxious buying a home. And, no, it’s not new.  Here’s the latest….

Young adults may be eager to buy, but 75% of first-time home buyers say they’re overwhelmed about the purchase process, according to TD Bank’s First-Time Homebuyer Pulse of more than 850 millennial buyers between the ages of 23 to 38.

Many have not taken the first step to talk with a lender before they start actively looking. Only 30% of respondents say they have spoken to a mortgage lender before starting their house hunt. “To put the cart before the horse is to pursue a significant life decision with possibly incomplete or inaccurate information,” says Simon Atik of Guaranteed Rate Affinity, my lender of choice.

Young adults have a lot on their mind. They’re concerned about their job stability (51%) and the stability of their relationship with their significant other (35%). They’re also concerned about the economy (57%) and potential changes in policies due to the 2020 election (47%).

It’s that time of year and young buyers are facing more than just the issue of finding a mortgage lender or dealing with house searches.  They’re also dealing with finding a home at a price they can afford.  Inventory and price continue to plague young and old alike.  Will this ever change? Probably not!

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What used to be an option is now “standard”

Home buyers are a demanding lot these days.  It’s not that they’re ‘unreasonable’ — but they are now expecting features in their next home that used to be an option only years ago.

First-time and repeat buyers say they’d rather have a smaller home with high-quality amenities than a bigger property with fewer such features, according to a survey the National Association of Home Builders. The NAHB’s report, titled “What Home Buyers Really Want,” identified the following features as being most desired by both segments of buyers:

Builders are now including flexible spaces that add great functionality to laundry rooms for example.  The survey also uncovered the most likely features that single-family homebuilders say is becoming standard in most new homes built today, including: walk-in master closets, low-emissivity (low-e) windows, and energy-efficient environmental systems.

• Hardwood flooring
• Walk-in pantries
• Hardwood flooring
• Walk-in pantries
• Patios
• Ceiling fans
• Kitchen double sinks.

Builders are now including flexible spaces that add great functionality to laundry rooms for example.  The survey also uncovered the most likely features that single-family homebuilders say is becoming standard in most new homes built today, including: walk-in master closets, low-emissivity (low-e) windows, and energy-efficient environmental systems.

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Nationally High-end sales for 2019 almost even with 2018 

For high-end sales on Los Angeles’ Westside, 2019 has been a challenging market for most of the year, but we’ve made progress in The last two quarters.  Overall, the year ended almost even with 2018…there were 560 closed sales of $5 million-plus vs. 587 in 2018, down 4.6%.  Of these, 161 were $10 million-plus vs. 160 the previous year.

In the $20 million-plus category, there were 43 sales in 2019 vs. 45 sales in 2018, down only 4.4%, and 21 of these sales were for $40 million-plus in both years, another strong showing.

High-end sales attracted buyers from around the globe, but the majority were Americans (70%) and other countries represented were two each from Qatar, Bulgaria, Canada, Germany, England, France, Russia and Saudi Arabia, and three from China.

The areas of the $20 million-plus sales were: 12 in Beverly Hills, 11 in Bel-Air, 6 in Malibu, 4 in Beverly Hills Post Office, 3 in Brentwood, 2 each in Sunset Strip., Palisades and Westwood…Only one in Holmby Hills

There were two sales of $100 million, and one for $150 million, the highest sale ever in Los Angeles.

The good news is that the Westside is slowly returning to its former robust self.  I expect a solid year for 2020.

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Humpback whales and the eco-system in turmoil

There is nothing more spectacular than to see a giant humpback whale breach, soaring from beneath the calm sea into the bright sunlight, leaping dozens of feet into air, and then crashing magnificently to the water below.  It’s breath-taking.  But the sightings of humpback whales, especially in California is becoming more endangered.

In a recent LA Times article (27 January 2020), a recent study pointed to the complicated marine ecosystem where species and humans are bumping into each other.  Because of warming ocean trends, especially in California, humpback whales have had to move closer to shore to access their favorite food — anchovies.

Fisherman, who have long used these same waters, are now seeing humpbacks being entangled in their fishing gear, causing serious damage or even death.  And rescue efforts to help the humpbacks has dramatically increased — one marine ecologist stated that “we went from virtually no entanglements to one every other week, and during the peak in Spring 2016, we were on call every day.”  Scientists and the Scientists and the fishing industry are now focusing on broader, more long-term approaches to resolving the challenges of avoiding conflicts between fishermen and whales.  Climate change, warmer waters, and the content interfacing of humans with ocean species will not end.  But at least California is working on the problem. There is hope.

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A HUGE LOSS – FAR TOO SOON

Kobe Bryant’s death shocks our world! It wasn’t supposed to end this way.  When I was on my out from Trader Joe’s last Sunday, I heard the tragic news of Kobe Bryant’s death in a helicopter crash in Calabasas.  The news shocked me to my very core.  How could this happen?

Like many of us, we only knew Kobe when we could see him in a Lakers’ uniform. Or reading about his amazing career.   Spending his entire 20-year career with the Lakers, Kobe became part of our daily lives, creating his own Kobe-brand of basketball.  He set the basketball world on fire, winning five NBA championships, just one of the many accolades he accumulated in a star-crossed career where he was recognized as one of the game’s all-time greatest players.

Kobe was a total and real person. Coming to the NBA straight out of high school, he was fluent in three languages — English, Italian and Spanish. He was multi-talented — a singer in his youth, writer and author in later years, and winning an Oscar for his Best Animated Short Film — Dear Basketball.  He found his inner self mid-career — Mamba, a term he attached to himself because of the snake who struck with 99% accuracy and repeatedly.  Kobe’s 2018 book “The Mamba Mentality: How I play” became a NY Times best seller. He was working on a children’s book at the time of this death.

He devoted his life to helping others and was the official ambassador for After-School All-Stars, and non-profit offering after-school programs

It seems the entire world took pause to mourn his passing on learning of Kobe’s death that Sunday morning.  Eight others, including his 13-year-old daughter Gianna, and college baseball coach John Altobelli, were also killed in the crash.  He will be long remembered.  We miss him terribly already.

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What’s happening in my world?                           

Business is going along well, and as the news reports of the condition of the real estate market, I am plagued like the buyer’s with a severe lack of inventory.  The buyers are there, out in forces attending open houses, wanting to buy a home, but with the slim amount of choices out there, it makes it difficult.  I have a listing coming up on Canyon back in Mountain gate, but we are still working on getting it ready to put on the market.  I also want to once again thank the resident of The Terrace in Mountaingate for her generosity in the donation of a beautiful warm coat and some additional shoes and clothes.

Listening to the recent howling winds, particularly at night put me in a fire watch mode.  So, on a recent morning, I was not surprised to see the racing fire engines going down Sepulveda.  Then to watch the heroics of the LAFD working to once again save lives and property made me once again think how precious life is and how we need to make the most of every day.  I was also reminded of it after spending 24 hours with my Mom at the ER at UCLA Santa Monica.  Fortunately, all of her tests results came back OK, but we are still looking to see what got her/us there in the first place

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Please get in touch with me for all your real estate needs. I am very much looking forward to working with you.
Carole Schiffer
ceschiffer@gmail.com, carole@caroleschiffer.com
310 442-1384

Carole Schiffer, Realtor Coldwell-Banker Residential Brokerage/Brentwood Office 310-442-1384 (office) or e-mail me at carole@caroleschiffer.com www.caroleschiffer.com
CalBRE 00677619 ©2020 Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC. Coldwell Banker is a registered trademark licensed to Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC 234567An Equal Opportunity Company. Equal Housing Opportunity. Owned and Operated by NRT LLC. Not intended as a solicitation if your property is already listed by another broker. Real estate agents affiliated with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage are independent contractor sales associates, not employees. ©2020 Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage. All Rights Reserved. Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage fully supports the principles of the Fair Housing Act and the Equal Opportunity Act. Owned by a subsidiary of NRT LLC. Coldwell Banker, the Coldwell Banker logo, Coldwell Banker Global Luxury and the Coldwell Banker Global Luxury logo are registered service marks owned by Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC