The SchifferLine
Timely Real Estate News………………………………15  September 2020
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Sales volume down…but improving
Nothing surprises us these days, especially in the real estate market. Median sales prices continued their climb in August while total sales volume was down a touch for the five communities I regularly report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City and Brentwood. Our market’s performance for the year has reflected what has been happening across America during this pandemic: Price increases reflect a strong demand, especially when supply remains somewhat tepid, and sales volume continues to lag behind 2019.

Nationally sales volume was down 11% through August 2020, reaching $2.295 billion vs. $2.602 billion through the first eight months.

Locally, the sales volume leaders through the end of August were Beverly Hills Post Office, up $180 million through August, and Brentwood, up $128 million. However, the other communities were down substantially in volume compared to this time in 2019— Beverly Hills down $110 million, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills down $197 million, and Westwood/Century City down $63 million. Santa Monica, another one of the areas I cover, sales volume was even with 2019 at $391 million vs. $392 million last year.

As I have reported many times, sales volume can be strongly influenced with several large sales of $20 to $40 million-plus, which happens frequently in our market.

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Median sales prices are up
For the most part, median sales prices continued their strong upward movement as mortgage rates reached all-time lows and buyer demand generated multiple offers across the board. Buyers are hungry and armed with rates below 3% for the first time since 1971, sellers are taking advantage of the strong Westside market.

Median sales prices are up in all of the five communities I report on — Beverly Hills is up, but barely, just 1% above last August 2019 at $$6.250 million; Beverly Hills Post Office was up 12% at $3.975 million; Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 6% at $2.332 million; Westwood/City Century was up 19% at $2.575 million , and Brentwood was up 4$ at $3.350 million. Santa Monica was down 1% to $2.700 million.

What we are seeing on the Westside is that our real estate market continues to show its resiliency month after month. I am not concerned about the sales volume, because as we have seen over the years, a few blockbuster sales self-correct this statistic in a matter of months, not years.

What is important to look at is that Days On Market reflect buyers and sellers coming to agreement on price. Excluding Beverly Hills, the average DOM in August listed for those communities above was only 23 days — that is incredibly short. Beverly Hills, because of their substantially higher prices, was 112 DOM for last month. Even with Beverly Hills thrown in, the average DOM was just 39 days. This tells us that our market is not out-pricing itself and values are reflected in competitive prices. This is all good news going forward as we march through these challenging, pandemic times.

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Mortgage market recorded best quarter in years
Even though this pandemic, we are seeing bright spots in the housing industry. The mortgage market recorded its best quarter in years this spring, a reflection of how the housing market is booming in 2020 even as much of the economy stumbles.

Lenders issued $1.1 trillion in home loans between April and June, according to mortgage-data firm Black Knight. That was the biggest quarter in the company’s records, which date to 2000. Lenders extended roughly $2.5 trillion in home loans in all of 2019.

Refinancing, up more than 200% from a year ago, drove the increase. Mortgage rates hit new lows multiple times this year, falling below 3% for the first time in July. The low rates have made millions more Americans eligible to save money on their monthly payments.

Purchase mortgages, though, fell 8% from a year earlier. But there remain serious challenges as stimulus money is not entering the economy, homeowners, and renters — unable to make mortgage or rent payments — could be facing evictions and foreclosures when moratoriums are over. So, while mortgage rates are at their lowest in nearly 50 years, there is good news for those who have incomes, jobs, and the ability to weather this pandemic storm.

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No surprise…. New homes larger, apartments smaller!
Times are a changing. New homes have gotten larger, many with a room dedicated to each family member, plus a guest bedroom. On the other hand, apartments are feeling more cramped. With the ’stay-at-home’ and shutdowns rampant throughout the country, homes are now being re-purposed as never before.

For example, new single-family homes have increased 18% in size, or 143 square feet, over the last decade, according to new research from StorageCafe.com. That is about the size of a new bedroom according to their research which analyzed the evolution of new-home and apartment sizes from 2010 to 2019.

The average size of a new single-family home built in 2019 was 2,611 feet. While new homes get larger. Apartments, though, have dropped in size by nearly 90 square feet over the last decade, averaging 1,156 square feet in 2019 according to the study..

The main reasons for the boost in square footage in new-home construction are that builders are maximizing plot sizes and buyers are showing an interest in larger homes—a trend which could grow even more during the COVID-19 pandemic. New or larger home office, gym, entertainment room/center — are all being phased into new home design.

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July home prices set 2-year record
According to CoreLogic last week, home prices grew in July by the fastest rate in nearly two years, a 5.5% annual gain. The firm’s leading indicator Home Price Index (HPI), showed that the month-over-month change was 1.2%. The company said it was the one-two punch of strong purchase demand – bolstered by falling mortgage rates and further constriction of for-sale inventory that has driven upward pressure on home price appreciation.

CoreLogic reported that on an aggregated level, the housing economy remains rock solid despite the shock and awe of the pandemic. A long period of record-low mortgage rates has opened the flood gates for a refinancing boom that is likely to last for several years according Frank Martell, President and CEO of CoreLogic.

The Index report noted that after a momentary COVID-19-induced blip, purchase demand has picked up, driven by low rates and enthusiastic millennial and investor buyers. Spurred on by strong demand and record-low mortgage rates, we expect to see more home building in 2021 and beyond, which should help support a healthy housing market for years to come.

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Millennials are driving US housing market recovery
Millennials, long viewed as perennial home renters who were reluctant or unable to buy, are now emerging as a driving force in the U.S. housing market’s recent recovery.

Demand from millennials, who today range from their mid-20s to late 30s, has been increasingly important to the housing market since at least the middle of the last decade. But more recently, these new homeowners have been pushing aside older generations to become an even bigger influence.

Millennials reached a housing milestone early last year when the group first accounted for more than half of all new home loans, and they consistently held above that level in the first months of this year, the most recent period for which data are available, according to Realtor.com. They made up 38% of home buyers in the year that ended July 2019, up from 32% in 2015, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Moreover, millennials now account for more than 50% of all mortgage applications. Last year, millennials surpassed baby boomers as the biggest living adult generation in the U.S., according to the Pew Research Center. The largest cohort of millennial births was in 1990, Pew said, meaning that group turns 30 sometime this year.

According to one major lender — “Millennials are roaring into home-buying age. It is what we have been talking about for years. It’s now happening!”

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Kids in college with leased units? Good luck.
The abrupt conversion from in-class to remote teaching is now causing a swell of vacated units in college towns across the U.S. Landlords are scrambling to figure out what to do with leases that were signed by parents in January and February, before the pandemic, and how to recover.

For many landlords, who have saved for years to buy investment properties near colleges and universities, are now faced with vacated units and a signed lease that is not being honored. Breaking a lease is not inexpensive prospect, and in some areas, students return to college and occupy a near-college unit but still work remotely. Others return home and let the chips fall where they may

Landlords are filing suit or they are getting creative, filling the units with non-students eager to get an apartment or share a home…and getting offers of a move-in discount to fill up the empty property

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Engulfed by smoke and ash, LA deals with fire, again
We are no strangers to fire, and as we are seeing daily now, smoke hangs over most of us in Los Angeles as the El Dorado and Bobcat fires burn incessantly in our local San Bernardino and San Gabriel mountain ranges. The scenes of the horrible air and the amazing brilliant orange sun and sunset are shocking to witness.

Here are some tips in handling the poor air quality from the Air Quality Management District
• Stay indoors, if possible.
• Keep windows and doors closed.
• Check local public health alerts and the Southern California Air Quality map
• Find an air-conditioned place, like a designated LA County Cooling Center
• People with heart or lung disease (including asthma), the elderly and children should take             extra precautions as they may be more likely to experience poor health if they breathe in                 wildfire smoke.
• Avoid vigorous physical activity.
• Run your air conditioner if you have one. Make sure it has a clean filter and that it is                        recirculating the indoor air to prevent bringing additional smoke inside.
• Create a clean air space in your home by using a portable air cleaner instead of or in                          addition to your air conditioner. Do this in one or more rooms with the doors and windows            closed.
• Avoid using a whole-house fan or a swamp cooler with an outside air intake.
• Avoid using indoor or outdoor wood-burning appliances, including fireplaces and candles.
• Do not rely on dust masks for protection. Paper “dust masks” can block large particles such as sawdust, but do not protect your lungs from the small particles or gases in wildfire smoke. Disposable masks such as N-95 or P-100 respirators can offer some protection if they are worn properly and have a tight fit.

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Moving and Cleaning Out
Starting today, they are going to be remodeling my Coldwell Banker office, so until sometime in November, I along with my assistant Antione will be working out of my house. We have working together in my CB office in Brentwood. Cleaning the office out and moving everything including the computers, gave me the opportunity to purge a lot of “stuff”, and I made a promise to myself that I will not start collecting “stuff” again once I am back in the office.

We are also in the process of doing some cleanout of my Mom’s house. WOW, she had a lot of stuff. One of the challenges I have been facing is finding a safe place to bring her unused meds. If you know where I can do that, I would appreciate hearing from you with that suggestion.

While I am working at home, the best phone number to reach me is 310 471-2007 or ceschiffer@gmail.com.. I have a complete office set up here at home and can fulfill all of your real estate needs.
Stay safe and vigilant!

 

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

 

 

 

                          

 

                               

 

 

The SchifferLine
Timely Real Estate News………………………………1 September 2020
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Southern California home sales and prices jump
You wouldn’t know we were in a pandemic if you only saw how the real estate sales and prices have markedly improved. In July, households brushed off economic uncertainty and rushed to take advantage of rock-bottom mortgage rates.

Across the six-county Southern California region, sales of new and previously owned houses, townhouses and condos rose 27.7% from June and managed an increase of 2.5% from the prepandemic days of July 2019, according to data released last week by DQNews.

The Southland’s median sales price — the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less — climbed by the most since 2018, rising 8.5% from a year earlier to a new record of $585,000.

The July numbers are the latest evidence of a housing market rebound from spring, when stay-athome orders and fear over the coronavirus froze buying.

This past week, the National Assn. of Home Builders reported that its monthly gauge of homebuilder confidence tied a record high, while the Census Bureau released data showing buildersn are increasingly breaking ground on new homes.

This is the kind of news that continues to drive a new sense of optimism in our real estate market. I have always had confidence that we will endure the downsides of the market and whatever hits us, including this pandemic. The next story really makes a strong case for being optimistic!!!
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Some Great News…. High-end sales rebound
Across the board, high-end sales on Los Angeles’s Westside have rebounded with sales for homes selling above $5 million, are 7% ahead of last year at this time. There have been 373 closed sales of $5 million-plus this year, versus 349 at this time last year, (up 7%).

Of these, 123 were $10 million-plus, and there were 95 at this time last year, (up 29%).

Thirty-three (33) were $20 million-plus this year and there were 25 closed sales of $20 millionplus at this time last year, (up 36%). Twelve (12) of these sales were $30 million-plus this year, and there were 11 $30 million-plus sales at this time last year. Six (6) were $40 million-plus this year and there were 5 $40 million-plus sales at this time last year.

There are 101 pending sales of $5 million-plus as of now, with 20 of these at $10 million-plus and 5 are $20 million-plus. Of the 33 sales of $20 million or more this year, the buyers are still mostly American: 28 Americans, 2 Taiwanese, 2 English and 1 Chinese. The areas of the 33 $20 million-plus sales are: 10 in Beverly Hills, 5 in Bel Air, 4 each in Malibu and Brentwood, 3 each in Sunset Strip and BHPO and 2 each in Holmby Hills and Palisades.

This really is great news for our market as we have been experiencing a definitive decline in high-end sales for over the past 18 months…but despite the pandemic, we are thrilled to see this great rebound.
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Federal Reserve approves major shift in interest rates
The Federal Reserve approved a major shift in how it sets interest rates by dropping its longstanding practice of pre-emptively lifting them to head off higher inflation, a move likely to leave U.S. borrowing costs very low for a long time. This is good news for borrowers.

It will not lead to a significant change in how the Fed is currently conducting policy because it had already incorporated the changes it formally codified last Thursday.

But the shift marked a milestone. Had the strategy been adopted five years ago, the Fed would have likely delayed rate increases that began in late 2015, following seven years of short-term rates pinned near zero. It amounted to the most ambitious revamp of the central bank’s policysetting framework since the Fed first approved a formal 2% inflation goal in 2012.

By signaling it wanted inflation to rise modestly above its 2% target, the Fed revealed how the global central-bank principle of inflation targeting, widely adopted over the last quarter century, might have outlived its usefulness in a world of lower interest rates.
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Controversial new fee on mortgage re-fi’s is delayed.  A reprieve has been granted for extra fees on mortgage re-finances. Fannie Mae’s and Freddie Mac’s regulator is delaying for three months a controversial new fee on most mortgage refinances that could raise costs for borrowers. The 0.5% charge will take effect December 1, not September 1 as initially planned.

The agency also said loans with balances of less than $125,000 will be exempt from the fee, meaning it will not affect many people with lower incomes.

Lawmakers and industry groups have criticized the fee, arguing that it is inappropriate to make refinancing loans more expensive during the COVID-19 pandemic. The added charge could also hurt people who are eager to take advantage of historically low borrowing rates.

In its statement, the Federal Housing Finance Agency defended the fee, saying it’s necessary to cover pandemic-related losses for Fannie and Freddie that are projected to reach at least $6 billion.

The companies, which have been under the government’s control since the 2008 financial crisis, have pursued several costly actions during the economic slowdown to keep renters and homeowners in their residences, the agency said.
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More news from Freddie and Fannie
Fannie and Freddie are extending their suspension of mortgage foreclosures through at least the end of the year. They are also extending their moratorium on evictions on so-called real estate owned properties also until at least the end of the year instead at the end of August. Combined, these companies backstop approximately $5 trillion in loans.

FHFA Director Mark Calabria whose agency regulates Fannie and Freddie said the extensions will protect more than 28 million borrowers with a loan guaranteed by the companies. Congress has also protected homeowners from foreclosures who have been affected by the pandemic by allowing them to delay their monthly payments for more than a year without going into default. That provision was part of the $2trillion stimulus bill that was approved in March. The eviction moratoriums apply only to tenants living in houses that have not been foreclosed on.

This will add $1.1 billion to the $1.7 billion in expenses that Freddie and Fannie have already absorbed. Fannie and Freddie buy mortgages issued by lenders and package them into securities that are then sold to investors. Bondholders are guaranteed payment even if borrowers default.
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Listing price growth puts sellers in the driver’s seat
Listing prices are experiencing the fastest growth since January 2018, realtor.com reports. The median listing price in the U.S. is 10.1% higher than a year ago, buoyed by low inventory and strong buyer demand, according to realtor.com’s latest Weekly Recovery Report, covering the week ending August 15.

“With supply and demand moving in opposite directions, sellers are clearly gaining the upper hand in the market as buyer competition builds up and prices gain momentum going into the fall,” says Javier Vivas, director of economic research for realtor.com. “Buyers hoping to close on a home this year should expect some hot competition, especially if they are looking at more affordable or entry-level housing.” Buyers who want to get ahead of the competition should consider getting preapproved for a mortgage so they’ll be ready to make offers quickly, Vivas adds.

More new listings are gradually coming to the market, which will open up more choices to buyers. “The lack of options of homes for sale has been a key factor limiting buyers in the market, so continued recovery in new listings is key for home sales and overall market health in the coming months,” realtor.com® reports. Homes are spending less time on the market, selling four days faster than last year.

A caveat to this information is that buyers are very knowledgeable and sophisticated today, and while they understand the need to move quickly, homes that are not priced properly within the perimeters of the current market, and are not positioned well will continue to sit unsold,, thus sellers must remain realistic in their pricing of their homes. Also, it is imperative that buyers getmpre-approved before they start searching for their new home. My favorite lender has a wonderful program where they can pre-approve a buyer through the underwriting process (this is generally he part that takes the longest in the loan approval process), so that the buyer can compete with an all cash offer. For more information, and to begin this approval process, please contact me at ceschiffer@gmail.com
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Mortgage applications down but home purchases still a bright spot
According to a new survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association, purchase applications are up 33% compared to a year ago — the 14th straight week of annual gains. Mortgage applications fell 6.5% from the previous week in the week ending August 21, but continued to rise compared to a year ago, according to a weekly survey from the MBA.

MBA’s Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier and dropped 7% on an unadjusted basis, MBA said in a press release.

Refinances accounted for 62.6% of total application activity, down slightly from 64.6% the week before. The trade group’s Refinance Index declined 10% from the previous week but increased by 34% compared to the same week one year ago.
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What has the pandemic brought? New priorities at home
If you look at Home Depot’s or Lowe’s market price lately, both are zooming upward, experiencing strong gains as more homeowners are in the DIY mode.

Among all the shifts that have happened this year, is the fact that businesses rely on a distributed workforce which has become an accepted fact; as a result, we know homeowners spend the majority of their time in their houses and condos. This has proven especially true in the luxury real estate market, where buyers are often remote-working professionals with the means to afford a property that supports this new lifestyle.

Here’s a snapshot of what is happening with many who have now ‘enjoyed’ over six months in our shut-down…. #1 Space is trending upward — buyers are looking for more space, more flexibility in floor plans so they can expand for office, gyms, entertainment. #2 Outdoor dining is priority — built-in outdoor kitchens and amenities are a big plus, and having a place for these new areas also is important. #3 Amenities for all age groups — some buyers are looking for tennis courts, and swimming pools…. boat owners want to live near Marinas. #4 Reworking the workplace —Moving permanently to your home office? It’s a big trend, and homeowners are reconfiguring their workspace to reflect their day-to-day office needs! #5 — Remodeling outside — landscape projects long forgotten are now coming back to life. Guilt takes over and homeowners are now getting creative with their outdoor spaces. #6 Prioritizing practical luxury — vacation homes are turning into four-season homes. Homeowners want the luxury they had with other homes found in the deserts, beach or ski resorts. They are leaving the city for luxury resort living — all year long. These are all the latest trends…and I am seeing this every day with my clients — looking to improve their surroundings and ‘mindset’.
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The Second Emergency we are facing
The fires raging across our beautiful state are heartbreaking to watch. I am sure we all know people who have lost their homes to this tragedy. Being a wine lover myself, I cannot think of the damage that has been done to the wine industry, in the Napa/Sonoma area and how this will impact all of us for years to come. Also, with the heat we have been experiencing, we need to reduce our water consumption as well as energy. I know it is not easy, but remember it takes a village!

How many times, have we witnessed careless, thoughtless drivers toss their cigarettes out their car windows? We all need to be vigilant about being careful and observing the No Smoking signs all over. I must also remind you about doing everything you can to protect your property from fires, including maintaining the brush clearance, clearing away any combustible materials away from your property, and possibly install the fire prevention vents on your house (again, please contact me for more information on this potentially valuable resource for our homes).
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What is my news?
After a struggle with a lender who could not seem to get their act together (asked for the same condo information 5 times!!!), which is another reason for you to use my lender, Simon Atik at Guaranteed Rate Affinity, we finally closed the escrow on 12541 Promontory Road in Mountaingate. Please meet and great your new neighbors!

It seems these days I am working with more buyers than sellers, and have a number that in some cases are basically looking at the same thing. Hopefully we will settle on what they want soon and get them into escrow also. In the interim, we are looking for homes from Malibu to Century City and all points in between. I love it, it is sooooooo much fun to see all of these houses!

As always, I am here to assist you with any and all of your real estate needs, answer questions, or just catch up with one another in these trying times. Please reach out and let’s talk.Carole – ceschiffer @gmail.com or Carole@caroleschiffer.com

Please stay safe, wear your mask and remember that social distancing

The SchifferLine
Timely Real Estate News……………………………………..15  August 2020
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Sales down for July – not a surprise!
As expected, home sales were down for July, the 6th month we have endured this pandemic, but
median sales prices were up across the board, which has not been the norm this year.

Total sales for the five communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office,
Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City, and Brentwood, have reached a total of $1.819 billion in single-family residence sales, compared to $2.332 billion through July 2019. This represents a decline of 19%, which is about the average from around the nation as real estate sales have taken the Covid-19 hit.

The big sales winner was Beverly Hills Post Office, up $158 million over the past year. The losers in sales through July 2020 were Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, down $256 million, followed by Brentwood, off $224 million, Westwood/Century City minus $84 million, and Beverly Hills down $43 million. We are seeing somewhat of a slowdown in sales in the higher-end markets, which have always led sales performance in our area. There are a lot of high-end sales in escrow, which should change the numbers significantly in next month’s report.

BTW, have you heard that Prince Harry and Meghan have moved out of the house they were leasing in the Beverly Hills area, and have purchased a home in Montecito for $14,700,000?

Malibu and Malibu Beach sales were up a combined $472 million compared to $291 million a year ago this time of year, a 62% increase, where there are a large number of $10 million-plus homes on the market.
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Median prices are all up…. good news
Prices are holding up during Covid-19 period, as we have seen increases — not by much — in all of the five markets I report on. Beverly Hills Post Office was up 21% at $3.330 million, Westwood/Century City was up 19% at $2.225 million, followed by Bel-Air/Holmby Hills a 6% increase to $2.330 million, with both Beverly Hills at $6.362 million and Brentwood at $3.3350 million both up 2%. Malibu Beach median sales prices was $7.495 million, up 20% from last year, and Malibu was down 7% at $2.499 million.

In comparing July’s numbers to 2019, median sales prices were trending lower, with only BHPO showing a strong positive increase of 24% compare to 12 months ago. Westwood/Century City was up 2%, but the other areas were all down with Beverly Hills reporting a 45% decline in median sales prices, followed by Brentwood with a minus 39% and Bel-Air Holmby Hills down 16%.

What is the market telling us? Sales are being made — that is a given, and as I have noted for years, homes that are competitively priced and well positioned are going to sell. The fact that sales are down is not a reflection that the market is off, it just means that in our market, where we have an abundance of very high-end properties in the $5 million-plus range and up, our sales can fluctuate wildly from month to month. From where I sit in Coldwell Banker’s Brentwood office, we remain busy, and homes that are attractive and priced correctly are all getting multiple offers. That means only one thing: Buyers are still hungry…. but discriminating. I heard from another agent in my office about a property that had 58 offers! I do not know where or what it was, but will share the news with you when I find out.
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Mortgage applications up, multiple offers dominate|
Buyers are on the hunt! Make no mistake: Buyer demand remains robust, with mortgage applications 22% higher than they were a year ago. Those homebuyers surveyed planning to purchase in the next 12 months — found that three out of four have had their plans impacted by the pandemic — and one out of four want to move or speed up their move as a direct result of the pandemic. With mortgage rates hitting a new low of 2.88% the week ending August 6, this month is shaping up to be the home-buying peak of 2020 (typically, the month of May sees the most home buying activity).

According to the California Association of Realtors, multiple offers and bidding wars are holding strong in California’s luxury markets, and as more employees are able to work from home, rents are being driven down in expensive metro areas.

There does seem to be a mismatch between buyer demand and available inventory, with listings down 6.8% last week. That sellers remain cautious — even with homes selling so fast and often facing multiple offers — suggests recovery may be slower than hoped for, and buyers who are eager to purchase may not be able to afford to. Still, from where I sit, I see these increases in mortgage applications as a strong, positive sign for our local market. There is also a great increase in the amount of re-financing applications as well. In speaking with my favorite loan officer, Simon Atik of Guaranteed Rate Affinity, the lenders are processing purchase applications before and/or faster than re-fi’s.
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Core consumer prices jump…good news? Sort of….
Consumer prices, excluding food and energy rose the most in one month in nearly 30 years in July, but the unexpected increase is seen more as a recovery from the Covid-19 recessionary hit rather than the start of an inflationary spiral.

Core inflation, less food and energy, was up 0.6%, and is now running at a 1.6% rate year over year on an unadjusted basis, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is the biggest jump since January 1991, but it is still considered to be a low rate and it is below the Fed’s 2% target.

Motor vehicle insurance was up 9.3% in July, on top of a 5.1% increase in June. Wireless telephone services rose 3.6%. Goods also rose. Prices for used cars and trucks climbed 2.3%, while new car prices increased 0.8%. Airline fares also rose, up 5.4% in July, on top of a 2.6% jump in June. Shelter costs rose 0.2%, or 2.3% year over year. The cost of food at home fell 1.1%, after rising 0.7% in June. Food away from home also rose 0.5% in both June and July, as restaurants reopened and consumers could have more meals outside of their homes.
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Homeowners finding ’stuff’ to do during pandemic…
Is sitting around beginning to get on your nerves? Well, for others, the pandemic has prompted many homeowners to take on updates and renovations projects.

More than three-quarters of nearly 1,000 homeowners surveyed in July say they have carried out at least one home improvement project since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, according to a new survey from porch.com

More importantly, homeowners have spent a median of $17,140 on improving their homes since the pandemic began, with an average of five improvement projects per household. To fund these household projects, 38% dipped into savings, 23% used credit cards, and 13% used their government stimulus checks.

Outdoor projects have been among the most popular. 61 % of homeowners reported doing upgrades to their garden, patio, or renovating the structure of the house, the survey shows. 58 % also made improvements inside, such as repainting walls, adding new flooring, or renovating a bathroom. What are you doing in your house? Share with me… carole@caroleschiffer.com. I am replacing the flooring in most of my house, have installed the fire vents I discussed recently in the Schiffer, and am considering installing solar panels.
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Rapid Transportation Plans for the Bel Air Area
I am not sure how many of you have taken the time to read the mailing we received from the Bel Air Association a few weeks ago. It contains some critical information that all of us living in the area need to be aware of. The information that follows I have taken directly from the mailing itself.

As reported in this mailing, in 2016 Angelenos passed Measure M which allowed for additional funding and construction of transportation projects. We all know about the traffic conditions in the Sepulveda Pass area, and with that in mind, to relieve North/South traffic congestion it has been proposed that an underground rail line running from Sherman Oaks to the 10 Freeway and ultimately to LAX be constructed. Not only would the funds provided in Measure M be utilized ($9 Billion), but private companies are being asked for proposals for public/private partnerships to cover the expected costs over the initial $9Billion. The current Metro proposals would ultimately cost $15-20 Billion to complete. The goal is to not only improve the traffic problems in the area, but to have the project completed in time for the Olympics that will be held here in Los Angeles in 2028.

Metro has proposed 4 scenarios that appear to take 4 different routes through Bel Air.
1. One scenario places the tunnel under portions of Bel Air Road and Beverly Glen.

1. Another has the subway running under Stone Canyon Road before veering off at the reservoir and heading towards Stradella and Roscomare.

2. Another one has the subway running under the Westside of Bel Air, near Glenroy, Thurston, and Bentley before traveling above ground along Sepulveda, likely blocking the entrance to Bel Air Crest.

4. The 4th proposal would be for an elevated monorail using the existing center median of the 405. This would stretch from Sherman Oaks to LAX, and would fit within the monies approved 2016, and could be completed in time for the Olympic Games that are coming to Los Angeles in 2028.

This is just a small example of the information contained in this mailing. I don’t know about you, but it all sounds alarming to me! In my humble opinion, it is critical for all of us to make our voices heard as whatever is done, needs to have community involvement, and there definitely will be something done. For more information, please go to www.belairassociation .org/Metro. Or info@belairassociation.org.To look at the maps of the proposed projects, please go to metro.net/projects/Sepulveda corridor.
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Strange Times for Everyone
Living under the dome of Covid-19 has made for strange and difficult times for everyone. I am constantly amazed by people’s creativity in how we are teaching our students with the various programs of home schooling vs. in the classroom schooling, things to occupy oneself while staying at home, etc.

The same has held true for conducting real estate business today. The old ways of meeting with clients both buyers and sellers has changed, perhaps never to go back to the way it was.

The majority of listing consultations are being done virtually, and on line, and we do not see any open houses any more where a property is held open for the world to see during specific hours. Instead if there is an open house, it is done by appointment only with specific times assigned to specific buyers.

I have found that there is still a great deal of “business” being conducted as evidenced by the stories above, but that a great deal of business in being done by a minority of agents. Fortunately, I find myself among the group that is doing the business.

As we head into the general election, and the holidays, it will be interesting to see how the market is impacted, particularly by the election.

I look forward to hearing from you as to how I can assist you with all of your real estate needs.

 

 

 

The SchifferLine
Timely Real Estate News……………………………………..1 August 2020
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Existing home sales surge to record in June
Existing-home sales rebounded at a record pace in June, following three consecutive months of sales declines, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported this past week. Each of the four major regions of the U.S. posted month-over-month increases in June, with the West posting the largest jump.

Nationally, total existing-home sales—completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and co-ops—increased 20.7% from May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.72 million in June, NAR reports. Sales, however, are still down 11.3% from a year ago. I will have our local stats in the Schiffer Line on the 15th of August issue. Without having the specific local stats, I can tell you that homes that are well positioned (well-priced and presented well – staged) are selling quickly and many times with multiple offers. There is a home here in Bel Air Crest that sold in 4 days, and there are two potential back up offers, with one buyer stating they will pay $50,000 over asking!

“The sales recovery is strong, as buyers were eager to purchase homes and properties that they had been eyeing during the shutdown,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “This revitalization looks to be sustainable for many months ahead as long as mortgage rates remain low and job gains continue.”
Housing inventories, a big obstacle for buyers before the pandemic, have tightened further. Inventory levels in June fell 18.2% compared to a year ago, NAR reports. The low inventories continue to press on home prices. NAR pegs current inventory to be 4.0 months, down from 4.3 months one year ago.
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Fed maintains stimulus commitment as outlook dim
The U.S. economy faces a long road to recovery that will require greater public vigilance to prevent the spread of the coronavirus pandemic and more spending from Congress and the White House according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after the July 29 meeting.”

Fed officials did not announce new policy steps at the conclusion of their two-day meeting and reiterated their pledgeto maintain aggressive measures to support the economy. “The path of the economy is going to depend to a very high extent on the course of the virus, on the measures that we take to keep it in check,” Mr. Powell said at a news conference. “We can’t say it enough.”

The economic backdrop has weakened according to the Fed since its rate-setting committee last met seven weeks ago. After surprising rebounds in employment in May and June, many states have seen significant increases in virus infections, learning to renewed curbs on certain commercial activities and a dampening of consumer confidence.
Powell said various data sources the Fed monitors suggested hiring and consumer spending had slowed recently. He encouraged greater adoption of measures to contain the virus by disputing the idea of a tradeoff between virus suppression and a resumption of commercial activity. “Social distancing measures and fast reopening of the economy actually go together,” Mr. Powell said. “They’re not in competition with each other.”

“The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term,” the Fed stated. According to real estate analysts, this show of support will continue to keep mortgage rates low.

The officials have been weighing how to provide more support for the economy after moving quickly this spring to cut interest rates to near zero, to ramp up purchases of government debt and to establish an array of emergency lending programs to stabilize funding and credit markets.

The economic backdrop has changed notably since the Fed’s rate-setting committee last met seven weeks ago—mostly for the worse. After surprising rebounds in employment in May and June, many states have seen significant increases in virus infections, leading to renewed curbs on certain commercial activities and a dampening of consumer confidence. So, we will see how the virus continues to play out as it dampens our economic recovery.
With Congress scrambling before they leave on their month long recess and scrapping over various bills dealing with more unemployment support and a second round of a stimulus package, we have to wait and see how it all plays out.
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Working remotely is changing ‘life at home’
It has been less than five months, and many companies are now compelling all workers to “stay at home”, or what has become the new trend — Working From Home or WFH according to a recent report in the Wall Street Journal. Not only has the WFH altered home life by re-arranging work and living spaces, it has had a major impact on our total living environment.

Beginning in late March, employers moved quickly to disperse employees from occupied offices and sent them home packing, many with a new desk, new computer, and an ergonomic office chair. New network software and Internet connections were installed for WFH users, and during the first four months, the word was in “We want to stay at home.”

Not so fast. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that researchers surveyed more than 2,000 employees in March and April of this year in Australia, France, Germany, New Zealand, Singapore, the UK and the United States. They found that the pandemic is impacting mental health around the world.

Over 40% of people said their mental health has declined since the COVID-19 outbreak. In that same time period, the number of people who describe the state of their mental health as a 3 or less on a 10-point scale has doubled. Workers report more anxiety and stress.

On the positive side, other studies show that almost 60% of Americans think COVID-19 has changed the way we work for the better. Indeed.com pointed out that workers who were in the WFH crowd, stated that they had more independence, increased their productivity, improved their technical skills, and did not experience office distractions. From where I sit, working from home has benefits, but losing the congenial and supportive office environment we have at Coldwell Banker cannot be replaced by working 24/7 in my office at home.

In the last issue of the Schiffer Line I talked about the trend that we have experienced the last few years, where buyers prefer open floor plans rather than separated spaces. Then along comes Covid and we are all working, teaching, and just plain living at home together and now the separated spaces do not look so bad. I have some clients that are selling their condo in Culver City that has the separated spaces, and while buyers love the condo, they want an open floor plan and are finding the cost to remove walls, etc. too expensive. Bottom Line -there just is not a right answer, we just need to find the right buyer who likes the floor plan the way it is, and it looks like we did as they just got a full price, all cash offer with a 14 day escrow!!!
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Despite a pandemic, high-end sales doing just fine
Considering what is going on with the pandemic, we are doing just fine in the high-end real estate market on Los Angeles’ Westside. There have been 280 closed sales in June of $5 million-plus so far this year, versus 298 at this time last year, just down 6% compared to 13% negative in May.

Of these, 88 were $10 million-plus and there were 83 $10 million-plus sales at this time last year, up 6%. 21 were $20 million-plus this year and there were 23 closed sales of $20 million-plus at this time last year, down 11%. 10 of these sales were $30 million-plus for both years and five were $40 million-plus this year, versus three $40 plus million sales at this time last year, up 66%.
There are 79 pending sales of $5 million-plus now, of which 20 of these are $10 million-plus. Five are $20 million-plus and one is $30 million-plus.

Who are buying these homes? — of the 21 sales of $20 million-plus homes this year, the buyers are still mostly American — 18 Americans, two Taiwanese and one Chinese.
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Foreclosure filings hit all-time low…. but for how long?
During the first six months of 2020, foreclosure filings hit an all-time low of 165,530 properties, according to a new report by Attom Data Solutions. During the first six months of 2020, there were a total of 165,530 properties with foreclosure filings — an all-time low, down 44% from the same time one year ago and down 54% from the same time two years ago. (Foreclosure filings are qualified as default notices, scheduled auctions, or bank repossessions.)

As pointed out by ADS, foreclosure starts, and completions were already declining rapidly last year because the housing market and the economy were riding so high. But now they are down to lows not seen for at least 15 years as the federal government has banned lenders from pursuing most delinquent loans until at least the end of August 2020 to help people weather the pandemic.

The elephant in the room — how long will the federal government continue to support banning foreclosures after August, which certainly does not seem to be the ‘end’ for the pandemic? Whenever the fed decides to call an end to preventing foreclosures, we can expect a jump in foreclosure filings, which is a lengthy, painful process. Hopefully, for the millions out of work or sidelined with reduced income, there will be help along the way for them during this national crisis.
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When is the ’sweet spot’ to buy a home?
Is there a sweet spot for homebuyers when it comes to matching ample inventory with a reasonable sales price? According to a new analysis by NerdWallet, the answer is “yes!”

Although late spring and summer are often popular seasons for homebuyers, there is reason to believe there are better times of year to buy a home, according to a new study released by NerdWallet, a consumer data tracking firm.

By analyzing the 50 most populous metro areas in the U.S. with five years of sales data from the National Association of Realtors. NerdWallet found that in 44 out of 50 metros, home sales prices are most expensive in June and July, and least expensive in January and February. However, inventory is often highest in June and July and lowest in January and February, leaving homebuyers the tough decision between having fewer options to choose from or paying a premium to have more options. When is the right time to buy?

NOW!, says NerdWallet. The time usually starts at the end of July and lasts through October, when inventory starts to fall dramatically. This is the time because we still have strong inventory at levels we haven’t seen for quite some time, and homes competitively priced are getting purchased by ’smart buyers’ — who come prepared with pre-qualified approvals and are able to compete, which means negotiate, aided by a smart agent (like me!). So, the answer is, “yes!”, this is a good time to buy.
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Accessory Dwelling Units (ADU) are on the rise
The Covid-19 pandemic has spawned a rise in ADUs. As the housing inventory crunch has sparked a dramatic increase in the number of accessory dwelling units in the U.S., most notably in high-cost areas that have seen growing populations over the last decade, Freddie Mac reports in new study on ADUs.

Freddie’s research identifies 1.4 million ADUs in the U.S., including granny flats, garage apartments, and in-law suites. These ADUs can be either attached or detached from the main residence.

Freddie Mac researchers examined 600 million MLS transactions dating back to the late 1990s to study the growth of ADUs in the country. In 2019, 70,000 properties with ADUs were sold, which is 4.2% of homes sold on the MLS, the research shows.

ADUs are fast growing in California, Florida, Texas, and Georgia, with Los Angeles having one of the highest increases in these new living quarters.
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My Business
I am busier now than I have been in a long time. I was incredibly lucky to be referred to some buyers who knew exactly what they wanted to buy, and we found it. YEA! We are closing escrow in a few weeks. Sometime in the next week or so, there will be fabulous home in Brentwood proper that is an Art Lover’s Paradise” with soaring ceilings, white walls, and great natural light from the many windows! It is incredibly special, and has had a great deal of updating done in the last few years. It will be priced just under $4,000,000. In addition, my buyers and I are running fast to find a home that works for them, and not be involved in multiple offers.

Please let me know how I can assist you with any of your real estate needs and or just to talk.
310 442-1384.

PLEASE STAY SAFE, BE SMART AND WEAR THAT MASK!!!!!!!

The SchifferLine

Timely Real Estate News………………………19, 2020
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Happy Income Tax Day
I hope those of you who took advantage of the extended income tax day were able to send your taxes to the IRS. I had been able to get mine in on the original date. It will be interesting to see what the deadline or deadlines will be next year!
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Prices up, sales down…the more things change, the more….
During these very challenging times, the world of real estate continues the familiar path it has been on lately — prices are up and total sales volume is down. Not unexpected, this trend continues across America as we are all dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic.

In the five communities I report on each month, sales volume has seen a drop since the March 18 kick-in of the coronavirus lockdown. Total sales volume for these five communities is $1.507 billion through June 30, 2020, compared to $1.740 billion a year ago, a 13% decline. The biggest drop in sales occurred in Brentwood, which has seen sales volume down $175 million compared to last year at this time. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills is down $92 million, and Westwood/Century City is off $85 million since last year.

The big winner in sales through June was Beverly Hills Post Office, which was up $119 million over 2019, and Beverly Hills was up a modest $8 million since June 2019. But as we have witnessed so many times in the past, these numbers reflect only half the story still to be told as we move through another shutdown in Los Angeles County due to Covid-19.

Significantly, total sales volume for these five communities for June 2020 vs. June 2019, sales for last month was up 215% over the previous year, from $115 million to $363 million, a good sign that sales are progressing upward.
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Median sales prices are all up
Frankly, it is rare, but in all of my areas’ median sales prices are up through the first six months of 2020. This is a testament to the appeal and strength of our communities that continue to lead the nation and the world in attracting discriminating home buyers. Beverly Hills Post Office median sales price is up 22% at $3.400 million through 2020…Beverly Hills is up 6% at $6.612 million, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills is up 7% at $2.335 million. Westwood/Century City is up 16% at $2.510 million, and Brentwood is up 8% at $3.300 million.

What was surprising is the large sales jump in BHPO where the median sales price for June 2020 was $11,050 million, a 342% increase over June 2019 — the highest we’ve seen in the Westside for years. Beverly Hills was up 70% at $5.620 million for the month over 2019, and Brentwood was up 41% for June. Mind you as we have seen in the past, we have had some very large sales which impact the stats for a particular area.

As far as our real estate world is concerned, the Covid-19 shutdown has had an impact for sure, but houses are being listed and sold. There are buyers out there armed with mortgage rates near historic lows. Houses are selling IF they are positioned properly which includes being competitively priced, staged and well presented. Please remember the old adage about first impressions, with us being in a virtual world today, people are shopping on line and then if interested, setting up an appointment to see the property, and 85% of buyers have made a decision about the property before they even get out of their car!
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Mortgage rates are amazing….
MarketWatch, a publishing arm of Dow Jones & Company, stated “it should no longer come as a surprise that the pandemic continues to create never-before-seen circumstances in all corners of society. In the housing and mortgage markets, one of the first major manifestations of the crisis was a quick move to incredibly low rates. With record after record being set in close succession, the mortgage environment has been ridiculously good for most homeowners.”

As we are seeing every day, mortgage rates are moving downward. As MarketWatch said, it’s just been ridiculous. The 15-year fixed conforming hit 2.25% last week. Record low rates make a lot of sense given the economic outlook. In general, economic weakness coincides with lower rates, and there’s been plenty of that to go around. On the other hand, much of the economic weakness is assumed to be temporary.

We do know that smart buyers are getting their financial platforms in order so they can take advantage of these low rates. How long will they last? It is anyone’s guess|
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One-in-five Americans have relocated or know someone who has
The pandemic is having a noticeable effect on housing. According to the Pew Research Center, millions of Americans have relocated this year due to the COVID-19 outbreak. New data released this week shows that 22% of Americans either moved or know of someone who did.

The reasons vary, researchers say, such as college students moving out of dorms as schools closed abruptly, homeowners and renters leaving communities perceived as unsafe, and people moving from housing they could no longer afford. The findings are based on a survey conducted in early June of nearly 10,000 people.

Young adults have been the most likely to move. Thirty-seven %of those ages 18 to 29 said they either moved, someone moved into their home, or they knew someone who moved because of the pandemic. One of the other reasons people are moving is that after having spent the last number of months in their homes people are finding that the make up of their homes no longer works for them. For example, one of the trends we have had the past number of years have been to have open floor plans of one’s home. However, after now having spent most of their time in their home generally with the entire family there, we are finding that people want to go back to the separated areas in the house for privacy, work space, etc.

Overall, 28% of those who have moved during the pandemic say the most important reason was to reduce their risk of contracting the virus. An additional 23% say it was because their college campus closed, 20% said they wanted to be with family, and 18% said it was a financial decision driven by either a job loss or another money-related reason.
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High-end market is picking up….
Here is some really good news: The high-end market has picked up, and we are ahead of last year in sales of $10 million-plus homes, but slightly behind in the $5-to-$10 million-plus homes. There have been 219 sales of $5 million-plus homes so far this year, versus 246 at this time last year, which is down 11%. Of these, 70 were $10 million-plus sales, and there were 67 $10 million-plus sales at this time last year, meaning we were up 4%.

There were 19 $20 million-plus homes sold this year, versus 16 a year ago, up 19%. Nine of these sales were $30 million-plus this year and there were eight at this time last year. Five $40 million-plus this year and there were three at this time last year.

The future? There are 76 pending sales of $5 million plus. And 10 are $10 million plus while three are over $20 million. Of the 19 sales of $20 million plus this year, the buyers are mostly America — 14 are American, (84%). The other three buyers are two Taiwanese and one Chinese. 6 of the 19 sales of $20 million plus were not officially listed when sold.

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What does the Real Estate Market Look Like Toda
After a hiatus of a month or two of not working, I am back at it full time as I mentioned and am finding lots of prospective buyers and sellers to keep me busy. I am still playing catch up with everything, and trying to stay on target with everything also. Most likely I will not be sending out the quarterly update again for the 3rd quarter as I also missed the 2nd quarter update as well. Stay tuned. Some general comments:

1. Inventory is low – This is not new, but is particularly low now. With the second phase of closing business in Los Angeles, I am not sure what impact this will have on inventory.
2. Given what the interest rates are today, buyers are hoping on the purchase train to take advantage of the low rates. They are somewhat frustrated with the low inventory, but we do seem to be finding properties that will suit their needs and requirements.
3. Sellers are somewhat concerned about the safety of showing their property, with good reason. That is why each potential buyer is being encouraged to view the virtual tour of the property before making an appointment to actually physically go to the property. Open houses are pretty much only being done virtually as well. We are not sure as to when these practices will revert back to the way things were done before Covid, but it doesn’t appear it will be any time soon. Once we have an appointment, there is a release form that the buyer must sign and strict guidelines have to be followed with only three (3) people allowed in the property at a time.
4. I am finding that home inspectors (physical, mold, fire place, sewer line, termite and geological – I have my buyers do all except the geo on every sale I do) are booked a full week in advance, which is an indication of the strength of the market.
5. Are agents working in their real estate offices or at home? For the most part, the majority of the 100 agents in my office are working at home. For now, I am working in the office as I have a new assistant, Antonie and am training him, which basically requires that the two of us be in the office. Sometime in the next few months, my office is being remodeled. When that happens, we will be working out of my house, but for now, the best way to reach me is to call 310 442-1384 or shoot me an email at ceschiffer@gmail.com
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   US heading for hottest year on record….
   We can all agree, we’ve seen some hot weather lately, and as we approach the “dog days of summer”, will probably have more. U.S. government data shows that so far, 2020 is the second-hottest year on record globally. trailing only 2016.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates 2020 has a 36% chance of becoming the hottest year on record. NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt thinks the odds are even worse, giving 2020 a three-in-four shot of overtaking 2016.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention states more than 600 people in the United States are killed by hot weather each year, but the true death count is almost certainly much higher. Last month, a new study estimated heat contributes to an average of 5,600 deaths in the U.S. each year — and that is just in a few hundred counties making up three-fifths of the country’s population.
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What do you think? Solar or not
I have just started doing the research on installing solar panels on my house. Have you done so, and if so, what differences have you noticed in both your utility bills and the heating/cooling in your home since the installation? I have also been told that upgrading the heating and air conditioning systems I have will in effect accomplish the same thing as having solar panels. Some of the arguments is that it will take a number of years to see the cost benefit of having solar panels, where the cost benefit for the heating/ac system change will cost itself out much sooner.

It is very difficult to find unbiased information as to the benefits of each change so if you have comments and/or opinions and want to share that knowledge, I would greatly appreciate it.
Please give me a call at my office 310 442-1384.
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Thank you
After my own illness in recent weeks and the passing of my mother last month, I am back in the saddle and business is robust. It feels really good and I also want to acknowledge and thank all of you for your messages of condolence about Mom. It really meant a lot. THANK YOU!!!!

I hope you are fairing well with all of the stress, changes and challenges we are facing. As we have said from the beginning, we are all in the together, and will get through it, it seems more difficult at times than others. Communication in my opinion is key to getting through it.
Please be safe, smart and careful.
I CARE!!!!!!

Carole
310 471-2007 – home office land line
310 413-3680 – cell
310 442-1384 – office land line