Opposing Opinions

Timely Real Estate News…………………………………….15 August 2022

Sales prices remain strong despite market fluctuations
The traditional law of supply and demand continues to favor higher home prices as we are seeing moderate to
stronger median sales prices in the communities I serve — Beverly Hills, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Brentwood,
Westwood/Century City and Santa Monica.

Leading the year-to-date sales price increases through July 2022 is Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, which recorded a
62% increase to $4.650 million from $2.485 million year-to-date. Brentwood had a 15.8% increase in prices at $2.200 million vs. $1.800
million a year ago. Santa Monica had a 14.7% increase in prices for the first seven months at $2.900 million vs. $3.400 million a year ago. And Westwood/Century City showed a 10.4% increase, ending July with $1.293 million median sales price vs. $1.190 million a year ago at this time.

Overall, we are seeing prices maintain increases every month as inventory (new listings) continue to lag. We are seeing more & more properties
come on the market, and the predictions are that we will continue to see more. For example, Beverly Hills new listings through the first seven
months of 2022 were down 22% compared to a year ago, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was down 19.4%, Westwood/Century City was down 24%,
Brentwood was down 31% and Santa Monica was off 37%.

Prices jumped significantly compared to a year ago
A year ago, at this time, we were heading for the end of the pandemic, or so we thought. We were finally getting this Covid thing under control. Didn’t happen. But what did happen — home prices, while still running strong since the pandemic started
on March 18, 2020, would continue to their upward climb and pandemic or not, were not going to stop.

A year ago— July 2021, median home prices in Westwood/Century City were $1.075 million and for July 2022, they are
$2.350 million, a 118% increase. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 59% compared to last July at $4,150 million for this July; Beverly Hills is up 20% to $3.810 million; Brentwood was up 28% to $2.432 million when compared to July 2021. Santa Monica was up 27% to $.200 million compared to July 2021’s prices.

As we have seen in the recent past large declines in number of new listings, thus causing increased demand which drives up our prices. This has not abated,
and all forecasts say this condition will continue, as long as we continue to offer the very best in community planning, neighborhoods, educational excellence,
and culture, shopping and recreation jewels, we will always be in demand….and as I have seen in my 40-plus years of selling real estate in this market, we
will never have enough inventory. still have an enormous buyer pool, with a good percentage all wanting to purchase the same type of property. Some buyers
stepped back due to the increase in interest rates, but with the knowledge and understanding that interest rates are lower now than they were a month or two
ago, and perhaps in the next few month, they are holding their noses and jumping back into the pool! The train is leaving the station…get aboard.

June home prices increased…so what’s new?

As I mentioned in my last Schiffer Line, it is important that we all remain knowledgeable about the real estate market in our area (that is
why you want to have me in your corner and to talk to me – carole schiffer 310-442-1384),

All media, print and broadcast is looking for “eyeballs” on a continual basis, so when they talk about the state of the real estate market,
they are speaking regionally, not locally. You want to know what is happening in your back yard and has someone with their “boots on the ground” every day.

The market is still strong and active. This past week a sweet house in a great part of Santa Monica came on the market on Friday, and the first time anyone could get into it was at the open house on Sunday. No exaggeration here… there were over 100 people at the open, and at last count had 15 offers… all over asking. Not sure where it will end up selling for… My client decided to bow out because of the number of offers.

According to Core Logic, one of the prominent real estate trackers and analysis, reported home prices nationwide including distressed sales, increased year over year by 18.3% in June 2022 compared with June 2021.

On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.6% in June 2022 compared with May 2022/ The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home
prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.6% from June 2022 to July 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 4.3% June 2022 to June 2023.
No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year over year were Florida (31.8%), Tennessee (25.8%) and Arizona
(24.9%).

Home prices may not accelerate
Altos Research CEO, Michael Simonsen, reported despite sluggish growth in inventory and mortgage rates that until
recently were on an upward march, home prices have largely avoided further acceleration.
Simonsen suggests while the housing market may have already dipped into a recession, the worst the real estate
industry may face is a contraction, not a crash. The slowing rate of inventory may be tied to a steep increase in lumber prices, which
rose 15% last week.

High lumber prices make it more expensive for builders to complete housing developments, leading to less new inventory on the
market. Simonsen also pointed to the share of listed homes for sale with price reductions, which shot up as homes sat on the market
longer, with the share now at around 37.6% nationally. The huge increase came as the market shifted and sellers were caught off guard,
with many of them feeling forced to drop their prices at once.

What does this all mean?

Mortgage rates are steadying and coming down (depends on what day you’re looking), but they declined to under 5% last week,
which was the lowest in several months. Money is available at decent rates, and with inflation still in the mix, and with the Fed
looking to raise interest rates again, soon, do not count on ‘waiting for your ship to come in’ with respect to better market
opportunities.

If inflation continues at the 8%+ range, that is going to raise real estate prices along with it, and while homeowners are building equity via inflated prices, home prices are not going to be going down any time soon. My advice: Stay the course for searching for your new dream home — they’re out there…and may disappear before you know it. If you’re selling, this continues to be a hot market, so there is no time like the present to list your home as long as it is competitively priced. It will move quickly. I have at least six hungry buyers looking now… and have managed to connect on new leases or sales recently. Call
me — Carole, at 310-442-1384.

High-end Westside market doing well
The high-end market is doing well but slightly down in the $5 million-plus range. There have been 650 closed sales of $5
million-plus so far this year, versus 675 at this time last year, down 3.7%. Of these, 221 were $10 million-plus this year and also
221 currently last year. Fifty-nine (59) were $20 million-plus this year and there were 57 at this time last year, almost even.
We are ahead of last year with sales of $30 million-plus, there have been 27 closed sales this year, versus 17 at this time last year, which is up 58%. Of these,
17 were $40 million-plus and there were 10 at this time last year, up 20%

We have had two closed sales of $100 million-plus so far this year. They were in Bel-Air, which sold for $141 million, and in Holmby Hills which sold for
$119,.8 million There were two sales for over $100 million in all of 2021.

At the moment, there are 80 pending sales of $5 million-plus and at this time last year, there were 127 so we are down so far this year. Of these, 29 are $10
million-plus and there were 49 at this time last year. Nine (9) are $20 million-plus this year and there were 12 at this time last year.

The 59 $20 million-plus sales this year were: 12 in Bel-Air, 11 in Malibu, 10 in BHPO, 9 in Beverly Hills, 8 in Palisades, 3 in Brentwood and 2 each in
Holmby Hills, Sunset Strip and Hancock Park.

Loan performance — delinquencies drop to 23-year low
The U.S. overall mortgage delinquency rate declined for the 14th consecutive month on an annual basis in May to the lowest
level recorded since January 1999. While the national foreclosure rate remained flat year over year and month over month, the
rate did have a small monthly uptick in March of this year. However, it, too, remains near a historic low.

As in previous months, home price growth and the resulting equity accumulation helped keep foreclosure rates low in May, with year-over-year appreciation topping 20% this spring.

The nation’s overall delinquency rate for May was 2.7%. The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 1.1% in May 2022,
down from May 2021.

The share of mortgages 60 to 89 days past due was 0.3%, unchanged from May 2021. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due,
including loans in foreclosure – was 1.3%, down from 3.2% in May 2021. As of May 2022, the foreclosure inventory rate was 0.3%, unchanged from May
2021.

Angelenos achieved 11% water reduction, but….
We achieved 11% reduction in water usage for June, officials urged residents to keep going. It still shocks me to be driving around and seeing
gardeners watering lawns, etc. by hand at the middle of the day. It really is up to all of us to assure that anyone who works for us is abiding by
the water conversation rules.

“It’s clear that our customers have made conservation a way of life and are doing things like taking shorter showers, watering only on designated days of the
week and taking advantage of our water conservation rebates to save water and save money,” DWP general manager and chief engineer Martin Adams said in
a statement. “But our job is not done. We are now entering one of the hottest months of the summer season and ask that our customers continue to save every
drop.”

We are making progress, but is it enough? In another promising sign that residents are taking calls for conservation to heart, Angelenos in July achieved an
11% reduction in water use — more than any other July on record, officials announced this week.

The report from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power comes as drought continues to sap supplies across the region. But while July’s conservation
surpassed the record 9% reduction

Indeed, long-range forecasts indicate that the hottest, driest, hosted days of summer are yet to come, and forecasters say a stubborn La Niña climate pattern
may hang on into 2023. La Niña is often associated with drier conditions in the Southwest.

Already, more than 97% of California is under severe, extreme or exceptional drought, the three worst categories under the U.S. Drought Monitor. The
state’s largest reservoir, Lake Shasta, is at only 37% capacity.

Life is Interesting
One of the many things I love about selling real estate is the opportunity to meet new people. We are all such interesting ducks, and everyone has their story ,some
more amazing that others. I would love to get together with you for a glass of ice tea and talk about our local real estate market. Just give me a call and I will be there, Lately in meeting and working with new clients I love to hear them sharing
those stories.

 

The lease that I spoke about was leased in 10 days and the new tenant is moving into the house on the 12th. The house needed a little work, and fortunately we have been able to get it done in record time, so it is sparkling and freshly painted waiting for its new occupant. The stories you hear and read are all true in that we had multiple offers on a lease of $11,900. I would love to speak with you about any real estate questions. Please reach out to me.

Security is of the upmost importance for all of us these days, so please make sure you are locking your homes, using your alarms, and being diligent about observing what is going on around you. I just heard of a theft ring in the Benedict Canyon area.

I also want to express my Gratitude for my family, friends, clients, health and to all of you, my loyal readers of the Schiffer Line. Every time I meet one of you, you always share with me how much you enjoy reading it. Please share the gratitude you have in your life with me. I would love to hear it.

 

 

Talk to you soon
Carole: 310 442-1384
carole@caroleschiffer.com
www.caroleschiffer.com

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