Timely Real Estate News……………………………….15 May 2019

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Memorial Day commemorates fallen military
On Monday, May 27, the U.S. will commemorate and honor the U.S. men and women who died while in military service for their country.  Formerly known as Decoration Day, it was enacted to honor those fallen Union soldiers of the American Civil War, but it was later expanded to World War I and to include any American casualties of any war or military action.

Many view this as the unofficial start of summer and for those of you who live in West Los Angeles, it is a beautiful sight to see all of the flags that have been placed at every grave site at the Veterans Cemetery off of Sepulveda, Veteran and Wilshire Boulevard.

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Sales volumes improve, prices mixed
Peeking through the June gloom, which always arrives as May Grey for some reason, we’re seeing slight improvements in sales volume.  After a somewhat miserable first quarter, which saw sales volume decline by nearly 25% compared to a year ago at this time. We’re now just 13.5% behind the four-month totals of 2018. And while it may not sound like a big deal, we are moving in the right direction.  The softest part of the market is in the high end which basically starts at $4,000,000 and up.

Sales for the five communities I focus on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City, and Brentwood, total sales through April 2019 were $948 million compared to $1.096 million this time last year.  As I have mentioned a number of times, in comparing the sales from year to year, one has to look at the actual sale prices to see how the numbers get skewed.  For example, in Beverly Hills this year there were 9 closed escrows over $3,000,000 in April with the prices ranging from $3,100,000 to $34,000,000, and for April of last year there were 6 ranging from $3,212,000 to $17,000,000.  For Beverly Hills Post Office, the difference is far greater.  This year there were 4 sales within the price range of $3,000,000 to $6,195,000 where as last year there were 5 sales but the range contained a very large sale of $32,000,0000 against other sales from $3,900,000 to $12,400,000 so obviously the large sale threw all of the averages off.  In Bel Air – Holmby Hills, this year we had 5 sales above $3,000,000 from $5,925,000 to $11,000,000 (there were 2 at this price) vs. 5 again last year from $3,100,000 to $20,750,000.  In Westwood-Century City this year we had only 1 sale above $3,000,000 at $3,550,000 vs. again only 1 sale above $3,000,000 and that closed escrow at $4.095,000.  We had some healthy sales in Brentwood for both years.  This past April saw 10 sales above $3,000,000 with prices ranging from $3,100,000 to $33,000,000 and last April there were 6 above $3,000,000 from $3,650,000 – $19,000,000.

As you have seen, each month I also talk about the stats from other communities as well and this month it is Pacific Palisades.  In April of this year, there were 5 sales above $3,000,000 with the numbers running from $3,035,000 to $7,350,000.  Last April in the same category – the prices for the 15 sales ran from $3,252,000 – $19,000,000.  As a result, the stats show a 45% drop in sales volume, registering $167 million through April versus $305 million a year ago.  Look at the number of sales as well as the sales which shows a decline were across the board, with Beverly Hills Post Office suffering the most with $73 million behind 2018.  Westwood/Century City was down $43 million while Beverly Hills was only off $17 million, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was down $20 million, and Brentwood was negative $24 million. We’ve been seeing steeper declines in year-to-year sales, but the market is picking up, albeit slowly.

As you know, I run a “hot sheet” every day which gives me an eyeball look at what is happening in the market.  The other day I saw a house in Beverly Hills Post Office that came on the market for $1,000,000.  It sold in 10 days for $3,400,000.  How did that happen??  It was/is a house that is a major fixer or tear down that was designed by a well-known architect and was marketed specifically for someone who knows the market and knew what can/could be done with the house. You need an agent who knows that market, I am that agent and can assist you in finding your hidden gem!  Just ask me to help.

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Median Sales Prices — a mixed bag
I always regard year-to-date median sales prices as the best stat to measure just how strong the market is.  As you have seen from the previous paragraph, three markets were up in positive territory — Beverly Hills was up 11% to $8.950 million; BHPO was up 21% to $2.900, and Brentwood was up 5% to 3.150 million.

Trailing 2018 median sales prices year-to-date were Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, down 39% at $1.710 million, Westwood/Century City off 15% to $1.925 million and Pacific Palisades, down 11% to $3.080 million.

April was a hot month for several areas — for example, Beverly Hills, which was over $11,000 median sales prices in February, was still impressive — registering $9.325 million for April, 2019, a 117% increase over April 2018 Brentwood was up 75% to $4.450 million,

All of the other communities were down in year-over-year median sales prices — Beverly Hills Post Office was down 5% to $2.337 million, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was down 38% to $2.279 million, Westwood/Century City was down 13% to $1.975 million, and Pacific Palisades was down 31% to $1.987 million.

So, what does this all mean? Volumes are climbing back up as we are hitting the Spring selling season.

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There is mold, and then there is mold….
Mold is four-letter word at the mere mention of it send buyers running for the hills. It’s gotten so bad that in some states, home inspectors are advised to no longer use the word mold, instead they are told to use the term “fungal growth.”

Here’s what you need to know about mold and all of its impact when purchasing or selling your home as well your home maintenance.

Fact No. 1 — Not all mold is “mold”. There are more than 10,000 species of mold living in North American homes, according to CDC estimates (more if you expand the search globally.) Molds that grow inside an enclosed space, such as a house, are different than mold that grows outdoors.

Fact No. 2 – Many homes already have mold –According to a Harvard study, roughly 50% of homes in North America have some type of mold present in the home — despite a lack of smell or any visible infestation. If allowed to grow in your home, mold can cause significant damage to your home’s structure by disintegrating less stable products, such as drywall and rotting wooden beams and posts.

Fact No. 3 — Fighting mold requires constant diligence

Moisture in a home can result from many issues: from excessive condensation on uninsulated pipes; a lack of insulation in the walls; and a lack of vents in the roof, which restricts the air circulation throughout the home.

There are numerous ways to combat mold — repair water leaks, clean/replace furnace filters, vacuum often, reduce stored materials such as clothes, paper, and stored furnishings.  Mold grows in fabrics, paper, wood, and practically anything collecting dust and holds moisture.  Having a regular inspection by a qualified mold specialist could save homeowners money. I highly recommend that we all have our homes inspected on a regular basis not only for mold but termites as well.  If you need a recommendation, I can give you some.  Not only can it make it easier when you decide to sell your home, but it can also be helpful for potentially solving any health issues your family may have.

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Birth order influences housing preferences
Yes, there are people who actually want to know answers to buying preferences by birth order.  Whether one is first born, second or middle, last born, or an only child, researches have now identified who buys what and why, as chronicled in The Birth Order Book by Kevin Leman.

According to Leman, first borns are more apt to look for neatness and orderliness in their housing preferences.  They also prefer places that offer independence and solitude.  But the middle child may display some of fewest preferences because they never had a mom or dad to themselves, and therefore, they gravitate to a condo or community where shared interests dominate.

As for the baby of the family they tend to prefer condos that are stacked on each other, apartments, or a place with a community pool where they can meet others.  And the only child — as they go through life — are likely to prefer isolation or a home on top of hill because they are more used to solitude and quiet for the most part.

I personally don’t agree with his theory, but it is fun to think about isn’t it?  So, where do you fit in?******************
Hottest trends — Front yards, front doors
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), nearly 50% of home buyers make their purchase decision before entering the front door.  So, what prospective buyers see from the curb is going to have a major impact on their decision.

People are re-discovering the joys of using their front yard and porch as an extension of their living room according to the NAR.  This gives the homeowner actual benefit from the front yard other than just showcasing the house from the street.  And besides, neighbors also enjoy well maintained front yard because it lends to a better sense of community.

Over recent years, builders have been taking note of consumers’ increasing desire to have a front porch again and are including it in more home blueprints. The front porch was once a mainstay in home design in the early 1900s, but over the years, it was replaced by garage-facing homes. The entertainment focus of the front porch was then shifted to the backyard, which also affords one greater privacy, too.

Some of the things you can do to enhance your “urban appeal” is to spruce up the front yard with rocking chairs or a swing, designers suggest. Also, display colorful planters and hanging plants and fill window boxes with bright flowers. It isn’t just about getting your home ready to sell…it’s also about enjoying your home more while you’re still there!

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Harden your home — brush clearance season
With all of the wonderful rain we got this past fall and winter, it helped all of the brush and vegetation grow and the forecast is that not only are we heading into a hot summer, but also the potential for a very dangerous fire season.  The Los Angeles County Fire Department has put homeowners on notice that it’s not only brush clearance time, but this year, they’re going beyond that.  As Los Angeles homeowners prepare to trim grass, weeds and trees for the annual brush clearance inspections in May and June, the L.A. County Fire Department’s Forestry Division advises moving beyond standard procedures when it comes to reducing wildfire risk.

California, which suffered major fire disasters in the past year, wants homeowners to “Harden your homes”, which will give homeowners the best chance for a home to survive by protecting the first 30 feel surrounding the home.  “We know it works,” the Fire Department stated.  And that means that it’s not just about clearing out the brush but also removing nearly all vegetation and trees next to dwellings and windows.

Homeowners are taking initiatives to work with neighbors in making sure all nearby homes are ‘hardening’ their homes against wildfire.  For example, North Topanga Canyon Fire Safe Council recommends neighbors band together to form their own local fire safe council.  With smart design and landscaping, homeowners can create plenty of “defensible space” around their homes. This goes beyond Neighborhood Watch — focusing on making homes safer during the wildfires which consumed more than 90,000 acres in the Woolsey Fire, not to mention fires in Montecito, Santa Rosa and Paradise.

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One more home safety tip
A few weeks ago, those of us who live in the Sepulveda Pass area suffered a power outage which not only shut the power off for a few hours, but cut all of the land line phones off as well (I am talking about the phones that are plugged into an outlet rather than the hands free ones that always go out when the power goes out).  As I don’t yet have some kind of back-up generator, and the “juice” on my cell was low, and that I have a 97-year-old Mom, I wanted to make sure I could leave if I had to. I am trying to figure how what kind of generator to get, but am leaning on the solar powered one.  I was able to by-pass the power on my garage door and open it manually, but was unable to close it manually.  This along with my desire to have some kind of backup generator for power lead me on a quest for more information.  I am still in the process of doing that research, but in having a conversation with one of my lovely neighbors (thank you Vivian & Bob), I found out that effective 1 July 2019 all new garage door openers HAVE to have a battery back-up.  I did some more research and am having one installed in my house tomorrow.  I am looking forward to feeling a little safer in my house.  If you would like more information or have any information to share, please do not hesitate to give me a call.

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The World According to Carole
 As I discussed in an earlier paragraph, we are in the Spring Selling Season.  We have a larger number of new listings by some of my fellow agents in the office than we have seen in a while. Last week, we also had a number of multiple offers on various properties with different price points.  As for me I am busy with my two lease listings in Bel Air Crest, Brookshire and Folkstone as well as a number of Buyers who are part of “that quest” to find “the house”.  The process can be frustrating, but we will prevail.

Personally, we are getting ready to celebrate my Mom’s 97th birthday on the 23rd with everyone coming from all parts, my daughter & son in law from Oregon, my sister, brother in law, niece & her husband from Vancouver, and my nephew from Montreal.  It will be a multi-day celebration including a BBQ at my house culminated with a concert with a Mariachi band.  I have also hired a new assistant who starts on the 28th of the month.

Please do not hesitate to check out my web site, and or/ my FREE app. for UP TO SECOND listing update

I look forward to hearing from and seeing you.

 

 

 

 

Timely Real Estate News……………………………………..1 May 2019
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Home prices fall for first time in 7 years
The handwriting was on the wall. With lower sales volumes being recorded through the first three months of 2019, it comes as no surprise that home prices were next in line to tumble. And they have. Southern California median home prices dipped slightly in March from a year earlier, the first annual decrease since 2012. It is a sign of a downshift from the once-sizzling regional housing market.
The 0.1% drop, reported last week by CoreLogic, means prices for the six-county Southern California region were essentially flat year-over-year. But given a pullback in previous months, prices are $18,500 off their June 2018 peak, and that raises the possibility of a sustained decline in months ahead.

The median price for new and resale houses and condos — the point where half the homes sold for more and half for less — was $518,500 in March, $500 less than a year ago and off the all-time high of $537,000 reached in June of last year.

The dip from March 2018 doesn’t mean values declined across the board. In fact, when broken down by county, the median price only dropped in Orange County, while remaining areas — including Los Angeles County — still posted a slight or modest increase compared to a year earlier.

Sales, however, also continued their declines across the board and have now dropped in each county for at least eight consecutive months. Sales for the region fell 14.1% in March.

This retrenchment in Southern California reflects a market that was bloated and full of very optimistic sellers who felt they could cash in on the previous recent years of high prices. Buyers weren’t forthcoming — they have not left the market but have become more cautious and discerning. At my most recent sales meeting, I heard the largest announcement of new listings that I have heard in a while. Inventory has definitely picked up.

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Balancing act — buyer struggles in a stronger economy
The recent report from the Commerce Department that the economy outperformed predictions, coming in at 3.2% GDP growth for the first quarter of this year, could provide some optimism for the coming year. According to economists, the benefactors of a rising GDP are rising employment and the housing market. So, what is really happening now?

We have seen on the Westside, sales (units and volumes) and prices are now dropping below recent high-performance years, post 2009. But as we know, the Westside is a high-end market, but there are bright spots elsewhere in LA County. Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, said the shift toward lower-priced homes indicates the softening is focused on the top of the market — a dynamic that recent tax changes may be contributing to.

In L.A. County, the softening could also stem from people leaving the area, or refusing to move here given high costs. According to the latest census estimates, L.A. County’s population declined by 13,000 in the year ended July 2018. That is significant — a trend we have not seen in recent memory. “It appears we may have hit an inflection point,” in terms of population growth,” Green said.

Regional trends, of course, can mask hot markets, particularly less expensive neighborhoods where higher-income individuals are moving because they’ve been priced out elsewhere. I’m seeing strong buying trends in Culver City, Palms, Mar Vista and South East Los Angeles and lower priced homes in Westwood and Century City.

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Ah, ha! Good news in new housing
There is good news also. For example, nationally sales of new U.S. single-family homes climbed 4.5% in March, reaching a 16-month high, as falling mortgage rates and prices and stronger wage gains bolstered demand. This was a major factor in the GDP 3.2% increase according to economists.

New homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000 last month, up from 662,000 in February and 3% above the total a year ago, the Commerce Department said last Tuesday.

Nationally, the median sales price of a new home was $302,700, down 9.7 percent from a year ago and the lowest level since February 2017. Obviously, these are NOT the median sales prices in Los Angeles County where the MSP is over $615,000.

“This trend supports the fact that lower mortgage rates have started to entice buyers this spring and foreshadows a potential strengthening of pending and existing homes sales in the months to come.” says Danielle Hale, chief economist of realtor.com.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate was at 4.17% last week, down from 4.94% in November. And average annual wage gains have topped 3% in recent months, according to the Labor Department.
There were 344,000 new homes on the market last month. At March’s sales pace it would take 6.0 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, down from 6.1 months in February.

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Home ownership dips for first time in two years
Rising home prices and an uncertain economy may have spooked some Americans in the first quarter of the year. For the first time in more than two years, the U.S. homeownership rate fell, dropping to 64.2% in the first quarter of 2019 from 64.8% in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to newly released data from the Census Bureau.

The homeownership rate has been on an upswing since the start of 2017 and nearing its historic average of about 65 percent, The Wall Street Journal reports. The latest quarter’s dip has captured headlines.

Higher home prices and lower housing inventories may have attributed to the slight dip in owner occupied households, economists say. Younger buyers have been driving the bulk of the rise in the homeownership rate for the last few years, but they posted some of the most significant drops in the first quarter. The homeownership rate of households headed by those under 35 years old dropped from 36.5% to 35.4% in the fourth quarter.

“The homeownership rate is volatile, and it would take several straight quarters of decline to indicate owning a home is once again in decline in the U.S.,” The Wall Street Journal reports. “While the homeownership rate fell over the quarter, it was virtually unchanged from a year earlier.”

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Would you pay $4 to drive the Westside?
That is the question on the table. The Southern California Assn. of Governments (SCAG) recently completed a study that revealed how charging drivers $4 to enter a 4.3-square-mile area of the Westside, including part of the Wilshire corridor, could reduce traffic delays by 24% during peak periods. The area they are talking about is right where I drive along with many others every day (West Los Angeles and Santa Monica just west of the 405 and north of the 10 freeway). Charging drivers, a fee to reduce traffic jams has worked in London, Milan and Stockholm, and the idea is gaining ground in New York.

But in Southern California, elected officials have approached the question of congestion pricing with trepidation, saying that such a dramatic shift in a driving-dependent region would require detailed study of its impacts. The study also revealed that such a drop-in driving would correspond with a 9% increase in transit ridership, a 7% increase in biking and a 7% increase in walking inside the zone, indicating that the region doesn’t need sky-high tolls to reduce traffic congestion.

The SCAG study assumed tolls would be assessed through the Fastrak transponders already in use across California, including on the 110 and 10 freeway toll lanes. License plate readers could be installed.

Do I think this is going to ever become a reality? My gut tells me, “no” – the residents and businesses could potentially be the most affected and would most likely not favor the idea if it ever came to  a vote. A side note: The study also stated that of all the areas in Southern California that would be rated as “most in need” of congestion relief — the Westside is ranked #1! Like they are telling us something we don’t already know.

Also, I am sure that you have heard about the various plans being floated by LA Metro to deal with the traffic and congestion between the valley and the Westside with the ultimate goal of LAX. These ideas include various modes of transportation. The money is there to make this happen, just what to do is not yet decided. I am sure it will be bit before any decisions have been made.

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Air quality challenges in Southern California
The Southern California Assn. of The South Coast Air Quality has given a ‘warning ‘about the extreme impact of smog in Southern California — now focused in the Coachella Valley, and in doing so, sending out the message that climate change may be the culprit.

Air quality officials will miss a 2019 federal deadline to clean smog in the Coachella Valley, saying the challenges of “hotter summer weather and the threat of climate change” are hampering efforts to slash health-damaging ozone.

The South Coast Air Quality Management District, which covers Southern California’s four counties — said last week that because of an increase in smog over the last two years it would seek to downgrade the area’s ozone pollution rating from “severe” to “extreme” — the worst federal classification. The change, if approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, would give the agency five more years to cut Coachella Valley ozone levels below 80 parts per billion.

Cleaning Southern California’s air to federal health standards will require sweeping emissions cuts and billions in spending to switch to lower-polluting vehicles and equipment over the next several years.

The South Coast Air Basin, a region of 17 million people across Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties, has long suffered the nation’s worst ozone pollution. The point is: We’re all in this together, and implementing solutions continue to be of the highest priority.

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Snifflers and Sneezers beware…it’s allergy time
It’s pollen time and every spring, the snifflers and sneezers are at again. But it’s not only Spring that affects them, it can last all year long. And what most people don’t know — your home can be a breeding ground for some nasty allergy attacks.

Two thirds of people with allergies suffer them year-round, said allergist James Sublett, M.D., co-founder of Family Allergy & Asthma in Louisville, Ky. And the leading cause of those year-round allergies are dust mites, animals and cockroaches, he said, all of which make their homes inside of ours.

Outdoor allergens will make it into our homes through normal ventilation, Sublett said. “And of course, it gets tracked in, too.”

If you can’t escape allergens, it’s time to go on the attack. Here are Sublet’s tips on allergy-proofing each room of your home.

The bedroom — Your bedroom deserves the most attention since you lie and breathe there for eight or so hours a night. Dust mites live primarily in bedding, so buy a set of high-quality, mite-proof encasements for your pillows and mattress. They should be tightly woven with zippers that seal completely.Wash all your bedding weekly in any temperature of water to kill any mites. If you’re allergic to pollen, it’s a good idea to shower at night before bed. And consider keeping your room a pet-free zone, as a Golden Retriever can track in allergens on a high pollen day.

The living room — Your living room, and any space you spend much time in, should have “smooth surfaces as much as possible,” Sublett said. Smooth, clear surfaces wipe down easily, such as a hardwood floor or a plastic chair. Window blinds are perhaps preferable to drapes for the same reason, he said. Avoid rugs or carpeting whenever possible.

The kitchen — Your biggest enemy in the kitchen is mold. Periodically clean any spots where leaks or spills might occur, including under the sink and your refrigerator’s drain pan

The bathroom — Using a ventilation fan when you shower helps cut back on your home’s humidity, which should stay under 50% to ensure dust mites lack the moisture to thrive, Sublett said. A humidistat will help you measure it. Avoid humidifiers or vaporizers in the home, too.

The laundry room — Don’t leave out piles of damp clothing and towels, Sublett said, which become a welcome mat for dust mites and mold. Ensure your clothes dryer vents to the outside of your home, too, doing away with excess moisture.

This is a battle we all have to fight, not only for ourselves today, but for all of our future generations.

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My story
Ok, so last time I talked about having closed my last escrow and the need to fill up that proverbial pipe line again. It has happened and I am working with both buyers and sellers all of whom understand the changes in the market, from both perspectives and want to take advantage of the changes. We have a few people circling around my leases on Folkstone and Brookshire, but both are still available.

Two of my three mentees are in escrow with their second transactions, which means they will be graduating out of the mentoring program. I will have to wait until we hire more qualified new licenses to get in gear again in the mentor program.

On a personal front, my darling Mom will be 97 in May, and the family is planning a birthday celebration, including a Mariachi concert & BBQ at my house. Family is flying in from Montreal, Oregon and Vancouver BC. It will be great fun.

Please do not hesitate to give me a call for assistance with any and all of your real estate needs.  Please check out my web site carole@caroleschiffer.com or go to the app store to download my personal app

Happy Mother’s Day!!!!

Timely Real Estate News…………………………….15 April 2019
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What is happening with sales and prices in West Los Angeles?
Too a degree, we are looking at two different markets. The high-end market is definitely softer this year than it was last year, but in the “bread and butter” market with the price point of $1,000 – $4,000, that is still a strong market, with the prices holding much better. For example, for the month of March in Beverly Hills in 2018, there were 16 sales with a median price of $6,319,079 which was boosted by 10 sales from $6.1 – $23,500.000. In 2019 for the month of March there were 9 sales, with 6 of them from $6.2 – $10,025,000. These comparisons were basically the same for Beverly Hills Post Office, Westwood/Century City, Brentwood, and Westwood, with Bel Air being the only exception. I was recently involved in a multiple offer situation with a lovely small house in Santa Monica, north of Montana that the owner had fixed up so that it was really a little jewel box. It was a 2/2.5 priced at $3,295,000 that ended up selling for $4,000,000 with 7 offers all of which were all cash, some with no continencies at all, including the physical inspection!
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Sales volume takes a ‘hit’….
Sales through the first three months of 2019 were $601 million vs. $801 million in 2018 at this time of year a 25% decline. Sales were off $138 million through March (compared to last year) in Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, $74 million in BHPO, $69 million in Beverly Hills, $51 million down in Brentwood, and $28 million in Westwood/Culver City. Santa Monica also saw a decline of $18 million in sales volume compared to last year.

When homes sit too long, their prices drop and this stat can be seen when viewing the original listing price versus the final sales price. On the other side of the coin while I am monitoring the hot sheet from the multiple listing service, I run every day, I am still seeing a number of closed escrows across the board with sale prices at listed or above listing prices, and some of them with very short days on the market, like 2 -3 weeks.
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Behind the numbers…..
If you were to just read the stories above, one might be prone to start wringing their hands and thinking the bottom is falling out of the real estate market, I do not think that is the case. In looking behind the numbers, one of the main reason’s volumes are not matching last year is that I believe the market is stabilizing, settling in for a more normal period like we saw several years ago. Interest rates are down, and the Federal Reserve does not appear to have the inclination to raise their rates for the remainder of the year. We are in the prime selling season of the year, my office is very busy and transactions are on the upswing. Also, the unemployment rate is down. Please relax and enjoy are more stable market, it is still good for all of us!
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Home flipping gets another look
One of the latest “renewed trends” is…. home flipping. Yup, more consumers are flipping homes again, but investors are acting differently than they did during the housing boom. Short-term investors are focusing more on adding value than speculating on prices, according to a new report from CoreLogic, a San Diego-based real estate data firm. CoreLogic defines a home flip as the purchase of a property with the intent to sell within a two-year period for profit.

The U.S. flipping rate was 10.9% of all home sales in the fourth quarter of 2018. That’s a big number…flipping rates vary significantly across the country and tend to be highest in Sun Belt metros and lowest in the Rust Belt metros, with some exceptions. Only two of the top 10 cities were in the West — Phoenix and Las Vegas.

Flipping is becoming less risky, CoreLogic notes. Flippers are focusing on adding value to the properties they buy before reselling. Further, “we’ve seen growing signs that flippers are getting increasingly good at buying properties at a discount while the premium they’re selling for has remained mostly constant,” the report notes. “This is yet more evidence that flipping today is less risky and less speculative than during the 2000s.”
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Fed reaffirms — rates to stay same for 2019
The Fed essentially indicated that it would not be raising rates for the balance of the year. In their recently released minutes from last week, the U.S. Central Bank decided to maintain interest rates and hold off an any further increases this year.

“A majority of participants expected that the evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year,” the minutes said. The minutes revealed that Fed officials are leaving room for possible interest rate increase by the end of the year but currently do not expect to make any changes.

In regard to closely watched trade negotiations, it was announced that U.S. and China have agreed to the enforcement methodology going forward. This was an important element in the tariff resolutions that have been thwarting any trade deal. Meanwhile, global economic growth was a sore point for risk asset markets.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its forecast for world economic growth this year, saying a slowdown could force world leaders to coordinate stimulus measures. The fund said it expects the world economy to grow by 3.3% this year. That’s down from its previous outlook of 3.5%, which was also a downgrade. U.S. projected GDP growth in 2.1% for 2019.
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Delinquency rates hit 20-year low….
Nationally, only 4% of all mortgages were delinquent in January 2019. The number of homeowners failing to make mortgage payments hit a 20-year low in January while student and car loan delinquency rates continue to rise, according to new data from property analytics provider CoreLogic, a division of CaseShilling. The home delinquency rate for January has not been this low since 1999.
Foreclosures, in which property is seized due to a homeowner’s inability to pay, have also fallen steadily, from 0.6% in January 2018 to 0.4% now. But while delinquency and foreclosure rates have been falling since the beginning of 2018, parts of the country hit by natural disasters have higher delinquency and foreclosure rates.
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“The low delinquency rates on home mortgages are a contrast to the rising delinquency rates on consumer credit,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic, in a prepared statement. “While home mortgage delinquency rates are at, or are near, their lowest levels in two decades, delinquency rates for auto and student loans are higher now than they were during the early and mid-2000s.”

What’s more, it has become increasingly difficult for first-time homebuyers to make the leap from renting to owning. As home values rise and incomes fail to keep up, some are putting off a first-time purchase as they wait for a change that experts predict will be slow in coming
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California has another drought — Earthquakes!
According to seismologists, California is in an exceptional earthquake drought. It has been almost five years since the state experienced its last earthquake of magnitude 6 or stronger in Napa in August 2014. Southern California felt its last big quake on Easter Sunday 2010, and that shaker was actually centered across the border, causing the most damage in Mexicali.

Experts know this calm period will eventually end, with destructive results. They just don’t know when this well-documented geological pattern will shift.

“Earthquake rates are quite variable: We have a decade or two where we don’t have many earthquakes, and people expect that’s what California is always like,” said Elizabeth Cochran, seismologist with the U.S. Geological Survey. Eventually, “we’re going to dramatically see a change in earthquake rates.” We have experienced two minor earthquakes of 3.5 or greater magnitude in Southern California the last couple of weeks…one last Thursday in San Bernardino (3.7 magnitude).

Scientists have been warning California of seismic dangers, from the Big One on the San Andreas fault to other catastrophes that could come from lesser known faults, like the Hayward and Newport-Inglewood.
One reason for the urgent alerts: Memories of a truly destructive quake in many urban areas have faded. And with that, some fear, the urgency of pushing seismic safety. Experts say California ignores these realities at its own peril. So, please have your emergency preparedness kit in your car and at home. Have an emergency plan on where to meet — and carry necessary food stuffs, water, batteries, radio, device chargers.

By the way, did you feel the one at 4:32 am on the morning of the 12th of April that was centered in Century City? I did… it was a very, sharp, short, jolt. We have had a few smallish ones in Southern California in the last month or so. I do hope you have made arrangements to BE PREPARED! It is critical that we all do so. I am probably buying a generator for my home.
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Multi-generational homes….
a trend One in six Gen Xers purchased a multi-generational home, overtaking younger boomers as the generation most likely to do so; with 52% of those Gen X buyers indicating that they did so because their adult children have either moved back or never left home.

According to the National Association of Realtors, which evaluates the generational differences of recent homebuyers and sellers, older millennials who bought a multi-generational home, at 9%, were most likely to do so in order to take care of aging parents (33%), or to spend more time with those parents (30%).

“The high cost of rent and lack of affordable housing inventory is sending adult children back to their parents’ homes either out of necessity or an attempt to save money,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “While these multi-generational homes may not be what a majority of Americans expect out of homeownership, this method allows younger potential buyers the opportunity to gain their financial footing and transition into homeownership. In fact, younger millennials are the most likely to move directly out of their parents’ homes into homeownership, circumventing renting altogether.”

Survey generational breakdowns: Younger millennials (ages 21-28); Older millennials (ages 29-38); Gen Xers (ages 39-53); Younger boomers (ages 54-63); Older boomers (ages 64-72); and the silent generation (ages 73-93).
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What is going on with me?
I just closed my last escrow on a great condo on Veteran in Westwood (we sold it in two weeks, to an all cash buyer who purchased it for their parents). My client was a lovely recent widower who was moving to another state to be with his family, and we were able to get the escrow closed so that he could move on the date he had pre-selected. I can do the same for you. Please get in touch with me so that I can assist you. In the meantime, I am very busy with new clients, mostly buyers, not sellers as well as assisting two of my three mentees in their transactions, one, with a multiple offer on a condo in Brentwood, which sold with 10 offers, and the other with a listing of a house in the Palisades, as well as the purchase of a condo on Ocean Avenue in Santa Monica. It is so exciting for me to see them blossom and grow in the business.

Happy Passover & Easter!

 

Enjoy this special time with your family and loved ones.