Goldman Sachs predicts V-recovery, stimulus package
Analysts from Goldman Sachs are predicting that economic growth will rebound more strongly than expected in the second quarter of 2021, despite projected GDP losses in the fourth quarter of 2020 and first quarter of 2021 caused by a resurgence of the virus in the United States and Europe.
According to their report issued last week, just as the global economy rebounded quickly (albeit partially) from the lockdowns in the spring, Goldman expects the current weakness to give way to much stronger growth when the European lockdowns end and a vaccine becomes available.
Goldman is now predicting a global GDP loss of 3.9% in 2020—driven by a major contraction in the European economy in the fourth quarter— and a bump of 6% in 2021. That indicates a V-shaped recovery, under which the economy bounces back to its baseline levels (or better) after a crisis with minimal hiccups along the way. They are also predicting a stimulus package will be passed before Biden’s inauguration.
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Federal Reserve commits to full range of tools
In their November 5 meeting, the Federal Reserve stated it is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.
The Fed recognized that the COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year. Weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices have been holding down consumer price inflation. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.
The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.
The Fed Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2% percent for some time so that inflation averages 2% over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.
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Median sales prices continue upward
It is no surprise that demand for high-quality housing continues to push prices up on the Westside, even though sales volumes have leveled off through the first 10 months of 2020.
In the five communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City, and Brentwood, median sales prices were up by stronger margins than last month with Brentwood holding even with last year through October (no change). Beverly Hills led the way in median sales price increases with a 12% gain over last year, with an MSP of $6.475 million. The Westwood/Century City MSP was up 10% over last year at $2.411 million; Beverly Hills Post Office was up 5% at $3.000 million; and Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was next at $2.331, up 4%. Pacific Palisades, one of the communities I also cover, was up 10% over 2019 at $3.345 million.
What we are seeing across the board is a market that remains “hot”— lots of buyers who are seeking a quality lifestyle in attractive, safe and, well-managed cities and neighborhoods. During this pandemic, I am seeing buyers looking for security, calm, protected areas that offer good schools and appealing local amenities. We have all that right here…and our reputation has spread worldwide. Another measurement of our appeal is that homes are selling for an average of 93% of the original listing price, up substantially from this past summer. Once again, there are some outstanding high-priced sales that skew the numbers and percentages, and as my numbers are from the Multiple Listing Service only, any private sales are also not factored into these numbers.
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Sales volume lags…still over $3 billion
Sales have been a mixed bag for 2020…volumes have hovered below last year’s record sales from 6% to 10% each month compared to what we saw for the first 10 months in 2019. In analyzing the data from 2019, there were block-buster sales that pushed these five communities to new sales records, but we have now turned the corner for high-end sales (see below).
Sales volume for these five communities through October were $3.070 billion vs. $3.417 billion through same period in 2019. That is a 10% drop. The biggest decline in sales volumes for the year is in Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, down $301 million from 2019, followed by Beverly Hills, down $175 million.
Westwood/Century City was down $38 million, and Bentwood was off by $54 million. The good news is that Beverly Hills Post Office was up $232 million through October. Pacific Palisades has had a great year with sales up 10% with sales of $800 million for 2020.
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Buyers seek ‘multi-generational’ homes
The coronavirus pandemic has initiated several shifts in America’s housing market over the past eight months. Changes in the behaviors of home buyers and sellers were especially notable as buyers’ usual tendencies altered, and the urgency to sell accelerated.
This is according to new data from the National Association of Realtors’ 2020 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, a yearly report which discusses demographics, preferences and experiences of buyers and sellers across America.
Those who completed their transaction after March were more likely to purchase a multi-generational home. Multigenerational home purchases accounted for 15% of sales after March, compared to 11% for those who closed before April.
In light of stay-at-home orders instituted within the early weeks of the pandemic, 14% of buyers who bought after March said their transactions were delayed because of COVID-19. The report went on to say that buyers sought housing with more rooms, more square footage, and more yard space, as they may have desired a home office or home gym.
The NAR report also noted they shopped for larger homes because extra space would allow households to better accommodate older adult relatives or young adults that are now living within the residence. As an example, one of my clients whose son attends school in San Diego, just moved back into his apartment there after living at home for the past 9 months.
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Pandemic revs up expensive homes market
The pandemic is revving up the market for expensive homes where many people are spending far more time, luring wealthy buyers, and nudging more sales over the half-million-dollar mark from Northern California to the New York City suburbs.
Nationally, nearly one in four home buyers between April and June bought houses priced at $500,000 or more, up from 14% of buyers during the preceding nine months, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors.
…And we are moving ahead in high-end sales on the Westside…. while we are seeing increases in expensive homes across the country, our high-end sales for all of the Westside from Beverly Hills to Malibu, is ahead of last year. The number of closed sales of $5 million-plus are 550 vs. 456 this time last year, up 21%. Of those, 150 were $10 million-plus vs. 134 last year. In the $20 million-plus range, we had 45 sales close escrow vs 39 in 2019 at this time.
We are down slightly in the $30 to $40 million-plus range by 12%, and the reason sales volume has decreased so much this year in the communities I report on is that we have not seen the sales in the $40 million-plus homes, which are off by 40%. So, there you have it — we’re up, were down, but overall, we are trending up in prices and sales in our higher priced homes. We have seen some block buster sales this year, and the same holds true for Orange County.
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Second-home markets heat up, too
You would not know we are in a pandemic at times…. the housing market is booming across the United States, especially in second-home markets. Resort towns especially have become ‘hot’ because they provide vacation-style living, and many buyers are staying put year-round. For some, their primary home has become their second home now. When so many of us are working out of our homes, it has been become easier to work from our second homes.
According to the National Association of Realtors, homes are selling much quicker than they did a year ago, and sales of resort and second homes are no different. In September, 68% of vacation homes sold in less than a month, according to the Realtors’ Confidence Index Survey.
Historically, about 30% sell that quickly and the report noted that it is pretty amazing to see this uptick compared to past years. Sales of resort and second homes accounted for 6.3% of overall home sales in the third quarter, up from about 4.5% in the second quarter, according to the Confidence Index.
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New law gives many chances to buy foreclosed homes Come January 1
A new law will enable individuals, non-profits, and governments a chance to buy foreclosed homes before investors can scoop them up.
In a recent Los Angeles Times review, during the last financial crisis, millions of Americans lost their homes to foreclosure, and many of those houses were scooped up by investors — large and small — to flip or rent out. Wall Street became a major player, with large firms creating subsidiaries that snapped up tens of thousands of single-family homes to rent out and became landlords.
In California, where housing costs are sky high, many low-income community groups see investors as a negative force. They say companies crowded out traditional home buyers in the wake of the Great Recession when housing was relatively affordable and are more willing to raise rents and evict tenants than mom-and-pop landlords
Here’s the new law: The new rules apply to one- to four-unit properties sold at foreclosure auctions. If an investor wins one of those homes at auction, then people who want to live in it, as well as nonprofit organizations and government entities, have 45 days to submit competing offers. If the home is a rental, the tenants living there could prevail by matching the investor’s offer. Other would-be buyers must offer more than the investor.
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Hard to believe the holidays are upon us
Thanksgiving is a little more than a week away, and while it might be difficult to think of giving thanks given the year we have been experiencing, it is important for us to stop and take stock of all that we have.
Losing my Mom continues to be difficult for me, particularly as she was such an integral part of my life, but I am so VERY grateful for having her in my life for as long as I did and for the continuous feedback I get from those who knew her telling me how very special she was.
I am also grateful for the improved relationship I have with my sister and her family, and the knowledge that we are there for each other. My gratitude also extends for my health. A very special Thank You to all of my friends, family, and clients for everything you are and bring to my life.
As an ode to this year and what may be the anthem for all of us, I am including a link on You Tube.com to a song that I love hearing particularly this time of year. It is from Gloria Gaynor and the song “I Will Survive” sung by a turkey. I hope you enjoy this as much as I do.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jGOc0P5DEI
I am also grateful to those of you who participated in my Halloween contest. Seeing the entries was fun. Be on the lookout for my next contest which will be launched in the next week or so.
In the meantime, life goes on and I would love to hear from you as to how I can assist you with your real estate needs. I will be very grateful and thanks for this as well. Just a reminder the real estate market goes on during the holidays, and in fact because some buyers and sellers sit on the side lines, it can be a great time to buy or sell a house as there may be less competition.

During this pandemic, now nearing eight months, the U.S. housing market has become one of our economy’s bright spots. Home sales rose to a new 14-year high in September, bolstered by robust demand and a shortage of homes for sale that is making the housing market one of the brightest spots for the U.S. economy.
Sales of previously owned homes, which make up the bulk of the housing market, rose 2% in August from a month earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors, as low mortgage-interest rates and a desire for more space lured buyers into the market. A shortage of homes for sale has led to competition among buyers and pushed home prices higher.
Here is some more good news — the Commerce Department reported that the homeownership rate rose to 67.4% in the third quarter, up from 64.8% a year earlier but down from 67.9% in the second quarter. The second quarter was accentuated by the start of the pandemic, which threw the housing market into a tailspin.
But how high are prices poised to go over the next decade? A new study shows that home prices in the U.S. have increased by nearly 49% in the past 10 years. If they continue to climb at similar rates over the next decade, U.S. homes could average $382,000 by 2030, according to a new study from Renofi, a home renovation loan resource.
A large number of renters have been unable to pay some or even all of their rent since March, when the pandemic temporarily shut down most businesses. Many businesses remain closed or only partially open, pushing renters into unemployment and draining their savings.
While you are reading about ’thousands moving out of the city to suburbia’ or beyond (like in ‘rural’), it is true: There have been many fed up with the congestion, closed in society and lockdowns. But confirmed urbanites are resilient and getting creative. For example, urban buyers are looking for different amenities in light of the pandemic. Clients are looking for small rooms, formerly known as a maid’s room, which have suddenly come back.
Missing your spacious office? This pandemic is forcing many of us to ‘adapt’ to this remote working concept. Working from home has plenty of pros—wearing your fuzzy slippers and spending quality time with your pooch are among them. But big challenges can arise from small spaces when you don’t have adequate elbow room to get your work done effectively. How can you survive with your performance and sanity intact? Consider your mindset, your communication, and some basic survival skills.
For weeks I have been carrying around a plastic bag filled with unused meds from my Mom not knowing where to bring them and to safely dispose them. I had been told the pharmacy at the UCLA Medical Center took them but every time I went there it was closed. Now we can take them along with the e waste any time the Collection Center is open (the Collection Center only takes e waste on Saturday. For specific information as to what they will and will not take, please give them a call.
I have a number of listings both for sales & lease coming up in the next few weeks. For a varied number of reasons, we are not ready yet. The properties are located in Bel Air Crest, Mountaingate and Beverlywood. I will be sure to let you know when they are on the market.


As a kid growing up in West Los Angeles, Halloween was always a big treat for me and my sister. However, things have changed for us all during this pandemic. What to do about it? State officials are advising Californians to skip trick-or-treating, although they have stopped short of prohibiting the activity. In addition to actually closing some streets, the City of Beverly Hills has banned trick or treating, and has attached fines for any violations. Everyone is promoting ‘virtual costume contests’ and pumpkin carving more online. It is also recommended families go on a walk wearing their costumes. Halloween is the #2 retail sales event of the year, and stores are reporting record candy sales — “kids are home and want more, not less!”. If you do decide to hand out “goodies just leave your front porch light on, and if not just leave your front porch light off. In any event, I wish all of you a Happy Halloween! Stay safe.
last month and the month before. Median sales prices in all of the communities I report each month are all in the positive territory, not by much, a trend we have been experiencing lately. Depending on the area and price point, ales are still lagging. Beverly Hills’s median sales prices were up just 1% through the first nine months of 2020 at $6.265 million. Beverly Hills Post Office was up to $3.975 million or 8% for same period. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 7% at $2.338 million through September. Westwood/Century City was up the highest at 12% or $2.442 million, and Brentwood was up just 2% at $3.350 million for the same period last year. Santa Monica was nearly even at $2.690 million for the nine-month period. The point is — we are holding our own on prices in a very volatile, economic environment.
— these ups/downs happen every month. The only reliable trend # you can count on is “year-to-date” median sales prices. But even these numbers can be misleading as they are not the typical “average”; these are median #s, meaning half of the homes sold are above the median list price and half below it. You can have a home selling for over $50 million in our market, and it only counts as one home above the median-list priced home.
While prices remain just above last year’s at Fall comes, our sales volume continues to lag behind. Since January, sales volume for the five communities I report on was $2.740 billion versus $2.944 billion a year ago. That’s a drop of $204 million, with Beverly Hills down $122 million in total sales since January 1…Brentwood was down $100 million, and Westwood/Century City was down $68 million. Only Beverly Hills Post Office was up by a strong performance of $240 million plus, and Santa Monica was up $60 million.
but began months before that. Average Days on Market is 51 days for the sales reported in September — so you can see there is always some lag between the actual sale and when it records or closes escrow.
understand how our real estate industry is doing. But despite the pandemic and all of the heartache and trouble it has caused, the housing market continues to bring out buyers. For example, the Case Shiller Index — one of our leading real estate barometers — showed we had month-on-month gains in all major cities except New York, which was caused by business bankruptcies which rose by 40% since the pandemic hit. This will continue to play out, especially in California which has experienced lockdowns in key economic centers such as Los Angeles and San Francisco counties.
bonds and away from stocks according to a loan expert. This bond market trend has kept mortgage rates low and supported the market for both new and existing home sales.
Contract signings rose 24.2% year over year, according to data released last week by the NAR. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of future sales based on contract signings, is currently at 132.8, the highest it’s been all year and, in many cases, outperforming pre-pandemic averages.
as Hardie Plank or Hardie Board) at 21%. Only about 5% of new homes last year used wood or wood products, and 1% were clad in stone, rock, or other stone materials.
In July, 52% of 18-to-29-year-olds lived with one or both of their parents, up from 47% in February, according to the analysis. That places the number of young adults living with their parents at 26.6 million.
I must admit, I am still having a hard time dealing with the loss of my Mom this summer. I know it will get better in time, but it is little things that continue to come up that make it difficult. Thank you to all of you who continue to check on me to see how I am doing.

Median sales prices are up in all of the five communities I report on — Beverly Hills is up, but barely, just 1% above last August 2019 at $$6.250 million; Beverly Hills Post Office was up 12% at $3.975 million; Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 6% at $2.332 million; Westwood/City Century was up 19% at $2.575 million , and Brentwood was up 4$ at $3.350 million. Santa Monica was down 1% to $2.700 million.
Refinancing, up more than 200% from a year ago, drove the increase. Mortgage rates hit new lows multiple times this year, falling below 3% for the first time in July. The low rates have made millions more Americans eligible to save money on their monthly payments.
For example, new single-family homes have increased 18% in size, or 143 square feet, over the last decade, according to new research from StorageCafe.com. That is about the size of a new bedroom according to their research which analyzed the evolution of new-home and apartment sizes from 2010 to 2019.
According to CoreLogic last week, home prices grew in July by the fastest rate in nearly two years, a 5.5% annual gain. The firm’s leading indicator Home Price Index (HPI), showed that the month-over-month change was 1.2%. The company said it was the one-two punch of strong purchase demand – bolstered by falling mortgage rates and further constriction of for-sale inventory that has driven upward pressure on home price appreciation.
Millennials reached a housing milestone early last year when the group first accounted for more than half of all new home loans, and they consistently held above that level in the first months of this year, the most recent period for which data are available, according to Realtor.com. They made up 38% of home buyers in the year that ended July 2019, up from 32% in 2015, according to the National Association of Realtors.
We are no strangers to fire, and as we are seeing daily now, smoke hangs over most of us in Los Angeles as the El Dorado and Bobcat fires burn incessantly in our local San Bernardino and San Gabriel mountain ranges. The scenes of the horrible air and the amazing brilliant orange sun and sunset are shocking to witness.
Starting today, they are going to be remodeling my Coldwell Banker office, so until sometime in November, I along with my assistant Antione will be working out of my house. We have working together in my CB office in Brentwood. Cleaning the office out and moving everything including the computers, gave me the opportunity to purge a lot of “stuff”, and I made a promise to myself that I will not start collecting “stuff” again once I am back in the office.
310 471-2007 or ceschiffer@gmail.com.. I have a complete office set up here at home and can fulfill all of your real estate needs.
The Southland’s median sales price — the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less — climbed by the most since 2018, rising 8.5% from a year earlier to a new record of $585,000.
Of these, 123 were $10 million-plus, and there were 95 at this time last year, (up 29%).
It will not lead to a significant change in how the Fed is currently conducting policy because it had already incorporated the changes it formally codified last Thursday.
The agency also said loans with balances of less than $125,000 will be exempt from the fee, meaning it will not affect many people with lower incomes.
FHFA Director Mark Calabria whose agency regulates Fannie and Freddie said the extensions will protect more than 28 million borrowers with a loan guaranteed by the companies. Congress has also protected homeowners from foreclosures who have been affected by the pandemic by allowing them to delay their monthly payments for more than a year without going into default. That provision was part of the $2trillion stimulus bill that was approved in March. The eviction moratoriums apply only to tenants living in houses that have not been foreclosed on.
“With supply and demand moving in opposite directions, sellers are clearly gaining the upper hand in the market as buyer competition builds up and prices gain momentum going into the fall,” says Javier Vivas, director of economic research for realtor.com. “Buyers hoping to close on a home this year should expect some hot competition, especially if they are looking at more affordable or entry-level housing.” Buyers who want to get ahead of the competition should consider getting preapproved for a mortgage so they’ll be ready to make offers quickly, Vivas adds.
week ending August 21, but continued to rise compared to a year ago, according to a weekly survey from the MBA.
Here’s a snapshot of what is happening with many who have now ‘enjoyed’ over six months in our shut-down…. #1 Space is trending upward — buyers are looking for more space, more flexibility in floor plans so they can expand for office, gyms, entertainment. #2 Outdoor dining is priority — built-in outdoor kitchens and amenities are a big plus, and having a place for these new areas also is important. #3 Amenities for all age groups — some buyers are looking for tennis courts, and swimming pools…. boat owners want to live near Marinas. #4 Reworking the workplace —Moving permanently to your home office? It’s a big trend, and homeowners are reconfiguring their workspace to reflect their day-to-day office needs! #5 — Remodeling outside — landscape projects long forgotten are now coming back to life. Guilt takes over and homeowners are now getting creative with their outdoor spaces. #6 Prioritizing practical luxury — vacation homes are turning into four-season homes. Homeowners want the luxury they had with other homes found in the deserts, beach or ski resorts. They are leaving the city for luxury resort living — all year long. These are all the latest trends…and I am seeing this every day with my clients — looking to improve their surroundings and ‘mindset’.
industry, in the Napa/Sonoma area and how this will impact all of us for years to come. Also, with the heat we have been experiencing, we need to reduce our water consumption as well as energy. I know it is not easy, but remember it takes a village!
After a struggle with a lender who could not seem to get their act together (asked for the same condo information 5 times!!!), which is another reason for you to use my lender, Simon Atik at Guaranteed Rate Affinity, we finally closed the escrow on 12541 Promontory Road in Mountaingate. Please meet and great your new neighbors!
Please stay safe, wear your mask and remember that social distancing
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