The SchifferLine
Timely Real Estate News……………………………………..15 August 2020
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Sales down for July – not a surprise!
As expected, home sales were down for July, the 6th month we have endured this pandemic, but
median sales prices were up across the board, which has not been the norm this year.
Total sales for the five communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office,
Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City, and Brentwood, have reached a total of $1.819 billion in single-family residence sales, compared to $2.332 billion through July 2019. This represents a decline of 19%, which is about the average from around the nation as real estate sales have taken the Covid-19 hit.
The big sales winner was Beverly Hills Post Office, up $158 million over the past year. The losers in sales through July 2020 were Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, down $256 million, followed by Brentwood, off $224 million, Westwood/Century City minus $84 million, and Beverly Hills down $43 million. We are seeing somewhat of a slowdown in sales in the higher-end markets, which have always led sales performance in our area. There are a lot of high-end sales in escrow, which should change the numbers significantly in next month’s report.
BTW, have you heard that Prince Harry and Meghan have moved out of the house they were leasing in the Beverly Hills area, and have purchased a home in Montecito for $14,700,000?
Malibu and Malibu Beach sales were up a combined $472 million compared to $291 million a year ago this time of year, a 62% increase, where there are a large number of $10 million-plus homes on the market.
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Median prices are all up…. good news
Prices are holding up during Covid-19 period, as we have seen increases — not by much — in all 
of the five markets I report on. Beverly Hills Post Office was up 21% at $3.330 million, Westwood/Century City was up 19% at $2.225 million, followed by Bel-Air/Holmby Hills a 6% increase to $2.330 million, with both Beverly Hills at $6.362 million and Brentwood at $3.3350 million both up 2%. Malibu Beach median sales prices was $7.495 million, up 20% from last year, and Malibu was down 7% at $2.499 million.
In comparing July’s numbers to 2019, median sales prices were trending lower, with only BHPO showing a strong positive increase of 24% compare to 12 months ago. Westwood/Century City was up 2%, but the other areas were all down with Beverly Hills reporting a 45% decline in median sales prices, followed by Brentwood with a minus 39% and Bel-Air Holmby Hills down 16%.
What is the market telling us? Sales are being made — that is a given, and as I have noted for years, homes that are competitively priced and well positioned are going to sell. The fact that sales are down is not a reflection that the market is off, it just means that in our market, where we have an abundance of very high-end properties in the $5 million-plus range and up, our sales can fluctuate wildly from month to month. From where I sit in Coldwell Banker’s Brentwood office, we remain busy, and homes that are attractive and priced correctly are all getting multiple offers. That means only one thing: Buyers are still hungry…. but discriminating. I heard from another agent in my office about a property that had 58 offers! I do not know where or what it was, but will share the news with you when I find out.
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Mortgage applications up, multiple offers dominate|
Buyers are on the hunt! Make no mistake: Buyer demand remains robust, with mortgage applications 22% higher than they were a year ago. Those homebuyers surveyed planning to purchase in the next 12 months — found that three out of four have had their plans impacted by the pandemic — and one out of four want to move or speed up their move as a direct result of the pandemic. With mortgage rates hitting a new low of 2.88% the week ending August 6, this month is shaping up to be the home-buying peak of 2020 (typically, the month of May sees the most home buying activity).
According to the California Association of Realtors, multiple offers and bidding wars are holding strong in California’s luxury markets, and as more employees are able to work from home, rents are being driven down in expensive metro areas.
There does seem to be a mismatch between buyer demand and available inventory, with listings down 6.8% last week. That sellers remain cautious — even with homes selling so fast and often facing multiple offers — suggests recovery may be slower than hoped for, and buyers who are eager to purchase may not be able to afford to. Still, from where I sit, I see these increases in mortgage applications as a strong, positive sign for our local market. There is also a great increase in the amount of re-financing applications as well. In speaking with my favorite loan officer, Simon Atik of Guaranteed Rate Affinity, the lenders are processing purchase applications before and/or faster than re-fi’s.
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Core consumer prices jump…good news? Sort of….
Consumer prices, excluding food and energy rose the most in one month in nearly 30 years in July, but the unexpected increase is seen more as a recovery from the Covid-19 recessionary hit rather than the start of an inflationary spiral.
Core inflation, less food and energy, was up 0.6%, and is now running at a 1.6% rate year over year on an unadjusted basis, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is the biggest jump since January 1991, but it is still considered to be a low rate and it is below the Fed’s 2% target.
Motor vehicle insurance was up 9.3% in July, on top of a 5.1% increase in June. Wireless telephone services rose 3.6%. Goods also rose. Prices for used cars and trucks climbed 2.3%, while new car prices increased 0.8%. Airline fares also rose, up 5.4% in July, on top of a 2.6% jump in June. Shelter costs rose 0.2%, or 2.3% year over year. The cost of food at home fell 1.1%, after rising 0.7% in June. Food away from home also rose 0.5% in both June and July, as restaurants reopened and consumers could have more meals outside of their homes.
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Homeowners finding ’stuff’ to do during pandemic…
Is sitting around beginning to get on your nerves? Well, for others, the pandemic has prompted many homeowners to take on updates and renovations projects.
More than three-quarters of nearly 1,000 homeowners surveyed in July say they have carried out at least one home improvement project since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, according to a new survey from porch.com
More importantly, homeowners have spent a median of $17,140 on improving their homes since the pandemic began, with an average of five improvement projects per household. To fund these household projects, 38% dipped into savings, 23% used credit cards, and 13% used their government stimulus checks.
Outdoor projects have been among the most popular. 61 % of homeowners reported doing upgrades to their garden, patio, or renovating the structure of the house, the survey shows. 58 % also made improvements inside, such as repainting walls, adding new flooring, or renovating a bathroom. What are you doing in your house? Share with me… carole@caroleschiffer.com. I am replacing the flooring in most of my house, have installed the fire vents I discussed recently in the Schiffer, and am considering installing solar panels.
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Rapid Transportation Plans for the Bel Air Area
I am not sure how many of you have taken the time to read the mailing we received from the Bel Air Association a few weeks ago. It contains some critical information that all of us living in the area need to be aware of. The information that follows I have taken directly from the mailing itself.
As reported in this mailing, in 2016 Angelenos passed Measure M which allowed for additional funding and construction of transportation projects. We all know about the traffic conditions in the Sepulveda Pass area, and with that in mind, to relieve North/South traffic congestion it has been proposed that an underground rail line running from Sherman Oaks to the 10 Freeway and ultimately to LAX be constructed. Not only would the funds provided in Measure M be utilized ($9 Billion), but private companies are being asked for proposals for public/private partnerships to cover the expected costs over the initial $9Billion. The current Metro proposals would ultimately cost $15-20 Billion to complete. The goal is to not only improve the traffic problems in the area, but to have the project completed in time for the Olympics that will be held here in Los Angeles in 2028.
Metro has proposed 4 scenarios that appear to take 4 different routes through Bel Air.
1. One scenario places the tunnel under portions of Bel Air Road and Beverly Glen.
- Another has the subway running under Stone Canyon Road before veering off at the reservoir and heading towards Stradella and Roscomare.
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Another one has the subway running under the Westside of Bel Air, near Glenroy, Thurston, and Bentley before traveling above ground along Sepulveda, likely blocking the entrance to Bel Air Crest.
4. The 4th proposal would be for an elevated monorail using the existing center median of the 405. This would stretch from Sherman Oaks to LAX, and would fit within the monies approved 2016, and could be completed in time for the Olympic Games that are coming to Los Angeles in 2028.
This is just a small example of the information contained in this mailing. I don’t know about you, but it all sounds alarming to me! In my humble opinion, it is critical for all of us to make our voices heard as whatever is done, needs to have community involvement, and there definitely will be something done. For more information, please go to www.belairassociation .org/Metro. Or info@belairassociation.org.To look at the maps of the proposed projects, please go to metro.net/projects/Sepulveda corridor.
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Strange Times for Everyone
Living under the dome of Covid-19 has made for strange and difficult times for everyone. I am constantly amazed by people’s creativity in how we are teaching our students with the various programs of home schooling vs. in the classroom schooling, things to occupy oneself while staying at home, etc.
The same has held true for conducting real estate business today. The old ways of meeting with clients both buyers and sellers has changed, perhaps never to go back to the way it was.
The majority of listing consultations are being done virtually, and on line, and we do not see any open houses any more where a property is held open for the world to see during specific hours. Instead if there is an open house, it is done by appointment only with specific times assigned to specific buyers.
I have found that there is still a great deal of “business” being conducted as evidenced by the stories above, but that a great deal of business in being done by a minority of agents. Fortunately, I find myself among the group that is doing the business.
As we head into the general election, and the holidays, it will be interesting to see how the market is impacted, particularly by the election.
I look forward to hearing from you as to how I can assist you with all of your real estate needs.
Existing-home sales rebounded at a record pace in June, following three consecutive months of sales declines, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported this past week. Each of the four major regions of the U.S. posted month-over-month increases in June, with the West posting the largest jump.
Fed officials did not announce new policy steps at the conclusion of their two-day meeting and reiterated their pledgeto maintain aggressive measures to support the economy. “The path of the economy is going to depend to a very high extent on the course of the virus, on the measures that we take to keep it in check,” Mr. Powell said at a news conference. “We can’t say it enough.”
“The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term,” the Fed stated. According to real estate analysts, this show of support will continue to keep mortgage rates low.
Beginning in late March, employers moved quickly to disperse employees from occupied offices and sent them home packing, many with a new desk, new computer, and an ergonomic office chair. New network software and Internet connections were installed for WFH users, and during the first four months, the word was in “We want to stay at home.”
Of these, 88 were $10 million-plus and there were 83 $10 million-plus sales at this time last year, up 6%. 21 were $20 million-plus this year and there were 23 closed sales of $20 million-plus at this time last year, down 11%. 10 of these sales were $30 million-plus for both years and five were $40 million-plus this year, versus three $40 plus million sales at this time last year, up 66%.
During the first six months of 2020, foreclosure filings hit an all-time low of 165,530 properties, according to a new report by Attom Data Solutions. During the first six months of 2020, there were a total of 165,530 properties with foreclosure filings — an all-time low, down 44% from the same time one year ago and down 54% from the same time two years ago. (Foreclosure filings are qualified as default notices, scheduled auctions, or bank repossessions.)
By analyzing the 50 most populous metro areas in the U.S. with five years of sales data from the National Association of Realtors. NerdWallet found that in 44 out of 50 metros, home sales prices are most expensive in June and July, and least expensive in January and February. However, inventory is often highest in June and July and lowest in January and February, leaving homebuyers the tough decision between having fewer options to choose from or paying a premium to have more options. When is the right time to buy?
Freddie’s research identifies 1.4 million ADUs in the U.S., including granny flats, garage apartments, and in-law suites. These ADUs can be either attached or detached from the main residence.
I am busier now than I have been in a long time. I was incredibly lucky to be referred to some buyers who knew exactly what they wanted to buy, and we found it. YEA! We are closing escrow in a few weeks. Sometime in the next week or so, there will be fabulous home in Brentwood proper that is an Art Lover’s Paradise” with soaring ceilings, white walls, and great natural light from the many windows! It is incredibly special, and has had a great deal of updating done in the last few years. It will be priced just under $4,000,000. In addition, my buyers and I are running fast to find a home that works for them, and not be involved in multiple offers.
I hope those of you who took advantage of the extended income tax day were able to send your taxes to the IRS. I had been able to get mine in on the original date. It will be interesting to see what the deadline or deadlines will be next year!
Frankly, it is rare, but in all of my areas’ median sales prices are up through the first six months of 2020. This is a testament to the appeal and strength of our communities that continue to lead the nation and the world in attracting discriminating home buyers. Beverly Hills Post Office median sales price is up 22% at $3.400 million through 2020…Beverly Hills is up 6% at $6.612 million, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills is up 7% at $2.335 million. Westwood/Century City is up 16% at $2.510 million, and Brentwood is up 8% at $3.300 million.
the past, we have had some very large sales which impact the stats for a particular area.
pandemic continues to create never-before-seen circumstances in all corners of society. In the housing and mortgage markets, one of the first major manifestations of the crisis was a quick move to incredibly low rates. With record after record being set in close succession, the mortgage environment has been ridiculously good for most homeowners.”
Young adults have been the most likely to move. Thirty-seven %of those ages 18 to 29 said they either moved, someone moved into their home, or they knew someone who moved because of the pandemic. One of the other reasons people are moving is that after having spent the last number of months in their homes people are finding that the make up of their homes no longer works for them. For example, one of the trends we have had the past number of years have been to have open floor plans of one’s home. However, after now having spent most of their time in their home generally with the entire family there, we are finding that people want to go back to the separated areas in the house for privacy, work space, etc.
There were 19 $20 million-plus homes sold this year, versus 16 a year ago, up 19%. Nine of these sales were $30 million-plus this year and there were eight at this time last year. Five $40 million-plus this year and there were three at this time last year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates 2020 has a 36% chance of becoming the hottest year on record. NASA scientist Gavin Schmidt thinks the odds are even worse, giving 2020 a three-in-four shot of overtaking 2016.
I have just started doing the research on installing solar panels on my house. Have you done so, and if so, what differences have you noticed in both your utility bills and the heating/cooling in your home since the installation? I have also been told that upgrading the heating and air conditioning systems I have will in effect accomplish the same thing as having solar panels. Some of the arguments is that it will take a number of years to see the cost benefit of having solar panels, where the cost benefit for the heating/ac system change will cost itself out much sooner.
After my own illness in recent weeks and the passing of my mother last month, I am back in the saddle and business is robust. It feels really good and I also want to acknowledge and thank all of you for your messages of condolence about Mom. It really meant a lot. THANK YOU!!!!
Mom leaves Carole and her daughter Melanie & son-in law Lawrence Fisher, and Kim, husband Dr. Bob Sims and daughter Morgan and son Connor, and their respective partners. She was an incredible person and Mom, and we all will miss her lust for life, style, guidance, council and elegance, her family and grand kids, and the arts. What a long, purposeful life she lived…we should all be so lucky..
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.07% last week, the lowest ever recorded by Freddie Mac since it began tracking such data in 1971. “Mortgage rates continue to slowly drift downward, with a distinct possibility that the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage could dip below 3% later this year,” says Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.
As of June 30, 4.58 million homeowners were in forbearance plans, according to Black Knight, a mortgage data and technology firm. This represents 8.6% of all active mortgages, down from 8.8% the previous week. Added up, all the loans in forbearance represent just under $1 trillion in unpaid principal ($995 billion).
get blown through your mesh vents. Once a home catches fire inside the attic or foundation, there is little to nothing that can be done to save it. This is why flame and ember resistant vents are now part of the building code
Here are some handy tips to ensure that you can fully enjoy your gardens this summer: #1 Rejuvenate your pots…allow for ample drainage…recycle old soil and re-arrange compacted roots so they can ‘breathe”. #2 Start a compost pile…. keeps kitchen and garden waste out of landfills, transforming into soil-building amendment. #3 Help the bees…. plant some African-blue basil in a pot or in the ground. #4 Plant some flowers…favorites. #5 Deadhead...take clippers in hand and cut back spent blooms from your roses and other plants to encourage a new set of flowers. #6 Weed…knock those weeds down before they take over your garden this summer (it is great therapy). #7 Visit your plants daily…really try to enjoy your garden every day…stroll through it with your morning cup of coffee. Love your plants, and they will love you!
The top two motivators for buying soon are to take advantage of record low mortgage rates (67%) and being able to save for a larger down payment due to reduced spending (32%). Also, the perception of reduced home prices (30%) and being confined in a smaller space during stay-at-home orders have made homeownership more appealing, the survey found.
“Many low-income Americans will be moving out of necessity, and for them, affordable housing options will be difficult to find,” the newest survey notes. The U.S. mobility rate has been falling for the past 35 years, but the coronavirus may change that, economists say.
The FICO Resilience Index, created to supplement the FICO score, is aimed at helping lenders assess a borrower’s ability to withstand an economic downturn, even if they have a low credit score.
After basically not working because I was sick and then Mom I am back at work and very happy doing so. I have a number of new clients, both Buyers and Sellers. I will share our adventures with you as we go along. Please let me know how I can assist you with all your real estate needs.
It’s no surprise the pandemic is negatively impacting our real estate market. The latest existing-home sales numbers show a housing market facing the headwinds of the COVID-19 pandemic in April. Existing-home sales fell 17.8% last month compared to March, marking a two-month decline in sales, the National Association of Realtors reported last week.
This has turned around in May. We are seeing an enormous increase in activity for May with multiple offers again (20 for a house here in Brentwood listed at $2,750,000, (I am not sure what is it in escrow for). Most everyone in my office, myself included is busy. The thinking is that we are all tired of being “cooped up”, and along with thinking about the changes we want to make in our current homes, want to take advantage of the interest rates, and the lower inventory: buyers are starting to make those purchases now. We all know that as things open up more from Covid – 19, there will be more inventory, and more buyers = more competition. Why not take advantage of the situation now?!?
While consumers put off some remodeling projects when the coronavirus outbreak first began in the U.S., they were less likely to put off projects related to those two areas of the home. Also, outdoor remodels and improvements have been prioritized during the pandemic, as have more involved projects such as a kitchen renovation.
Remote work was on the rise well before the coronavirus pandemic. In 2018, the latest figures available, some 24% of those employed worked at least part of the time from home, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Under the Covid-19 quarantine, that percentage has surged. Even senior executives, long reluctant to leave the Executive Suite, now realize they can work from home and, economists predict, some may want to keep that option, changing homes and floor plans of the future.
Home listings that include the word “office” have increased every year since 2017, according to real-estate listings website Realtor.com. On average, homes with an office sell nine days faster and fetch a price-per-square-foot premium of 3.4%.
The survey showed a “seismic demographic shift towards a desire for smaller cities,” citing remote work trends as a result of Covid-19. Roughly 40% of respondents were not working remotely before the shutdowns but were able to during the shelter-in-place orders. Twenty-eight % of those respondents said they expect to continue to work remotely or have that option.
The Los Angeles County Fire Department has issued warnings about protecting your home from wildfires, but is now also pointing out the need for families practicing Safer-At-Home guidelines during the Covid-19 period that every home needs a fire escape plan, too.
* Clear leaves and other debris from roofs, gutters, and decks
Mortgage applications decreased 2.6% from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 15, 2020.
As I have shared with you in the past issues of the Schiffer Line, while I enjoy the comfort and convenience of working at home, I must admit that I miss going into the office and seeing all of my colleagues. Lately I have been working at the office more than at the house. I also have gotten quite busy and since I seem to have on-going computer/phone issues, it has been easier to work at the office. At the moment I am working with a few potential sellers, as well as buyers. I have previously mentioned the guidelines that we are all under in both showing and selling property today, and those guidelines in some ways change every day. It keeps you on your toes to make sure we all follow them and get the necessary signatures on the proper form. In addition to making sure you take all of your vitamins to stay healthy, one really needs to take them to keep your energy up!
Personally, I am also very busy. My darling Mom turned 98 last weekend! We had a mini party for her as I was/am the only member of the family here with everyone else stuck in Canada or Oregon. One of her caregivers hired a 6-piece Mariachi band (3rd year in a row) and they came to her house for a 45 minute concert. The same caregiver who has worked in various different capacities for over 40 years also has a darling 2 year old grandson, and he joined us dressed up as the 7th member of the band. We all really enjoyed the concert, and the baby with his hat and guitar and dancing to the music. The chocolate cake was yummy too!
If you are at all thinking of buying or selling, please do not miss the opportunity to act now. I am here to answer any questions you have as well as assisting you with all of your real estate needs, anywhere on the planet!
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