Happy HalloweenâŚ
As a kid growing up in West Los Angeles, Halloween was always a big treat for me and my sister. However, things have changed for us all during this pandemic. What to do about it? State officials are advising Californians to skip trick-or-treating, although they have stopped short of prohibiting the activity. In addition to actually closing some streets, the City of Beverly Hills has banned trick or treating, and has attached fines for any violations. Everyone is promoting âvirtual costume contests’ and pumpkin carving more online. It is also recommended families go on a walk wearing their costumes. Halloween is the #2 retail sales event of the year, and stores are reporting record candy sales â âkids are home and want more, not less!â. If you do decide to hand out âgoodies just leave your front porch light on, and if not just leave your front porch light off. In any event, I wish all of you a Happy Halloween! Stay safe.
***********************************************************
The more things change, well, you knowâŚ.
Donât get discouraged by seeing what appears to be more of the same this month as it was the 
last month and the month before. Median sales prices in all of the communities I report each month are all in the positive territory, not by much, a trend we have been experiencing lately. Depending on the area and price point, ales are still lagging. Beverly Hillsâs median sales prices were up just 1% through the first nine months of 2020 at $6.265 million. Beverly Hills Post Office was up to $3.975 million or 8% for same period. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 7% at $2.338 million through September. Westwood/Century City was up the highest at 12% or $2.442 million, and Brentwood was up just 2% at $3.350 million for the same period last year. Santa Monica was nearly even at $2.690 million for the nine-month period. The point is â we are holding our own on prices in a very volatile, economic environment.
Median sales prices for September compared to 2019 September were more up/down â Beverly Hills was down 30% from this September vs. September 2019 by 30%, Westwood/Century City was down 23%, and Brentwood was down 31%. However, Beverly Hills Post Office was up by 8% and Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 19%.
Itâs not the monthly jumps or declines that really matter in our high-priced, high-volume market 
â these ups/downs happen every month. The only reliable trend # you can count on is âyear-to-dateâ median sales prices. But even these numbers can be misleading as they are not the typical âaverageâ; these are median #s, meaning half of the homes sold are above the median list price and half below it. You can have a home selling for over $50 million in our market, and it only counts as one home above the median-list priced home.
***********************************************************
Sales volume hangs under last yearâs standard
While prices remain just above last yearâs at Fall comes, our sales volume continues to lag behind. Since January, sales volume for the five communities I report on was $2.740 billion versus $2.944 billion a year ago. Thatâs a drop of $204 million, with Beverly Hills down $122 million in total sales since January 1âŚBrentwood was down $100 million, and Westwood/Century City was down $68 million. Only Beverly Hills Post Office was up by a strong performance of $240 million plus, and Santa Monica was up $60 million.
There were some large sales recorded in September â Beverly Hills Post Office had sales of $36, $17, and $14 million, while Bel-Air/Holmby Hills had two salesâ $17 and $13 million (this does not include the purchase of a home in Beverly Park by LeBron James for $38,000,000) . I will have more on high-end sales in my November 1 SchifferLine. As I reported in August, the Fall season is running contrary to past trends â sales are being made and I expect this selling trend to continue while low mortgage rates exist, at least through the end of the year.
***********************************************************
What you do not see in these numbers is what is actually happening now on the street and in our office. All sales recorded as closed escrows were completed in September 
but began months before that. Average Days on Market is 51 days for the sales reported in September â so you can see there is always some lag between the actual sale and when it records or closes escrow.
There are lots of buyers out there, and I am busy with new clients â inventory is the challenge we have been dealing with for a while, only more so, which is attributable to many factors, the most serious one, of course, is Covid-19 and how it has affected all of us in our normal pursuits and transitions.
***********************************************************
Real estate is the âshining lightââŚ. yes, itâs true
Sales data and financial numbers are bearing down on us daily, sometimes making it difficult to 
understand how our real estate industry is doing. But despite the pandemic and all of the heartache and trouble it has caused, the housing market continues to bring out buyers. For example, the Case Shiller Index â one of our leading real estate barometers â showed we had month-on-month gains in all major cities except New York, which was caused by business bankruptcies which rose by 40% since the pandemic hit. This will continue to play out, especially in California which has experienced lockdowns in key economic centers such as Los Angeles and San Francisco counties.
Another key component to looking at the big picture is that the Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 101.8 in September from 86.3 in August. That is a massive jump, with that number is still below the 132.6 handle we saw in February before the pandemic hit. And the Present Situation Index (yes there is one) âŚwhich measures how we are feeling about the economy today, rose from 86.8 to 98.5, even though it is markedly lower than before the pandemic.
All of this is great news to cheer up those of who depend on the real estate industry â helping so many families buying and selling their homes!
***********************************************************
Mortgage rates â how low is low?
As you know, mortgage rates have been resting near historic lows for the last month, and borrowers are wondering, will they go lower? Should I wait for even lower rates? It is a mixed bag!
First of all, some of the volatility we have seen in the market has pushed some money back into 
bonds and away from stocks according to a loan expert. This bond market trend has kept mortgage rates low and supported the market for both new and existing home sales.
Second, the Federal Reserve has committed to a policy of keeping short-term interest rates low, likely until 2024. Essentially, inflation has been on the weak side, which doesnât help the economy because people arenât motivated to buy now. Short-term rates are correlated with the longer-term rates for things like mortgages. Because there are issues with costs related to Covid-19 that go into effect in December by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the issue of additional costs may be a factor in future rates.
***********************************************************
Pending home sales soar in August
More good news! The National Association of Realtors’ Pending home sales skyrocketed 8.8% between July and August, another massive jump after the spring standstill caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
Contract signings rose 24.2% year over year, according to data released last week by the NAR. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of future sales based on contract signings, is currently at 132.8, the highest itâs been all year and, in many cases, outperforming pre-pandemic averages.
The rise in pending sales, which has been consistent throughout the summer, can be attributed to the pent-up demand brought about by the standstill observed when the coronavirus pandemic first broke out as well as the low interest rates that have allowed some buyers to jump on a purchase.
All four regions in the U.S. saw increases in contract signings. At 13.1%, the West experienced the biggest increase, up 23.6% from the same period last year. The Midwest, the South and the Northeast saw increases of 8.6%, 8.6% and 4.3% percent, respectively.
***********************************************************
Stucco has become the most popular exteriorâŚreally!
Expect to see a greater mix of stucco, vinyl, and fiber cement siding as you travel around new-construction neighborhoods. Twenty-seven % of new single-family homes in 2019 used stucco as their siding material, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureauâs Survey of Construction.
Vinyl siding was the second-most common option, at 25%, followed by fiber cement siding (such 
as Hardie Plank or Hardie Board) at 21%. Only about 5% of new homes last year used wood or wood products, and 1% were clad in stone, rock, or other stone materials.
Stucco was the most commonly used siding material on new homes in the Pacific, Mountain, and South Atlantic regions last year. Fifty-seven % of new builds in the Pacific region, which includes California, Washington, and Oregon, used stucco, followed by 52% in the Mountain region and 38% in the South Atlantic region!
***********************************************************
Majority of young adultsâŚnow living with parents. Surprised? No.
Itâs no surprise: The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted millions of young adults to move back in with their parents since the spring. The majority of 18-to-29-year-olds now live with their parents, surpassing the previous peak during the Great Depression, the Pew Research Center reports.
In July, 52% of 18-to-29-year-olds lived with one or both of their parents, up from 47% in February, according to the analysis. That places the number of young adults living with their parents at 26.6 million.
The number of young adults moving back home is evident across genders, racial and ethnic groups, and both metro and rural areas, researchers found. However, increases were most pronounced among the youngest adults (18 to 24 years old) and for young white adults.
Prior to 2020, the highest number of young adults living at home was recorded in 1940, at the end of the Great Depression, when 48% of young adults lived with their parents. There is no data prior to that reflecting the worst of the Great Depression in the 1930s.
***********************************************************
How am I doing?
I must admit, I am still having a hard time dealing with the loss of my Mom this summer. I know it will get better in time, but it is little things that continue to come up that make it difficult. Thank you to all of you who continue to check on me to see how I am doing.
As for business, I am busy.. Working with new and returning clients, looking in some cases for those elusive properties that are just what they are looking for. Wee keep trying and know we will find it, just have to keep on trucking! Also, the Zoom meetings and classes keep me on my toes!
They are in the process of remodeling my Coldwell Banker office so for the time being both my Assistant Antoine and I are working out of my house in the smallest room in the house, makes for cozy working conditions, but it is also easy to work together.
In addition, I have been dealing with some plumbing issues at the house (no hot water for 3 -4 days!), replacing most of the flooring except the wood floors in the public rooms of the house, no land line on my phone for days on end, and other fun things to keep me up at night.
As I have mentioned, the real estate market continues to be fun and interesting and I love working with all of my clients and enjoy adding new ones, both buyers and sellers to the mix, so please do not hesitate to contact me with any questions. I am here for you.
PLEASE REMEMBER TO VOTE. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT
STAY SAFE
               Â
You must be logged in to post a comment.