Timely Real Estate News……………………..15 September 2018
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Winnie-the-Pooh and the Blustery Day….
The Santa Ana winds blew and blew. Piglet was snuggled behind Pooh, who was standing guard under the Old Tree, making sure that no branches (or limbs) would fall on his dear friend during this terrible wind storm. Tigger was racing about, fighting the blustery gales as he tried in vain to stop them. He gave up. He was all blustered out.
And like the real estate market, we can feel that way some times, all blustered out — hot Santa Ana winds sweeping across the Los Angeles plain, with prices going ever higher and inventory ever lower. But I muse and smile — Winnie was there to comfort me, so I know everything will be okay, eventually.
As a fan of A.A. Milne, I sometimes long for the ‘normal’ days when we had lots of inventory and prices were within reach for a lot more people who wanted to live in our “neck of the woods”, just like Winnie. Each month, I review the sales for the previous month and to my mild surprise, sales are still behind last year at this time.
I thought as we exited August, we’d be ahead, but we’re not. Total sales volume for the five communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City, and Brentwood, are down 6.6% through the eight months of 2018. In August 2017, we were ahead by 18.8% over the previous year (2016). That’s a swing of 24+%.
Sales volume for the five communities I report on was $2.362 billion vs. $2.519 billion a year ago. Sales volumes were down significantly in three communities — Beverly Hills (-$139 million). Beverly Hills Post Office (-$62 million), and Brentwood (-$114 million). Of course, there’s an explanation for all of this — inventory is down. We have lots of buyers, and I’m getting many buyers at my Open Houses who are looking ‘everywhere’. They want to live in our neighborhoods, but the choices are just limited.
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Median Sales Prices continue up
It’s no surprise that prices are marching upward. No gale-force winds are stopping price increases here. 
Although homes are not selling as close to the original asking price, they are, overall, recording increases in four of these five communities — Beverly Hills’s median sales price was up 8% to $$6.008 million through August 2018; Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 19% to $2.480 million, Westwood/Century City was up 13% to $2.480 million, and Brentwood was up less than 1% at $3.2187 million. Only BHPO was down — 3% to $2.650 million. As always these are the numbers only from the Multiple Listing Service, and while there were a good number of sales in BHPO (16 in 2018), there were more in 2017 (19), and that too impacts the over all median price. For example, in 2017, the highest sale for $14,500,000 vs. $7,500,000 this year.
In Venice, Playa del Rey and Marina del Rey, which I also cover, median sales prices for Venice were up 3% to $2.060 million, Playa del Rey down 8% to $1.644 million, and Marina del Rey up 28% to $2.389 million. Sales volume for all three cities were up 7% to $417 million.
Median sales prices — where half of the homes are selling above the MSP figure and half below it – is the clearest signal as to the status of pricing in your community. In this very eclectic real estate landscape, we have had difficulty in comparing home values on a square-foot basis. We’re starting to do that now.
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Home sales not lingering….
I have always maintained that homes competitively priced, well presented, and in good locations are not going to be on the market long. As mentioned above, we are seeing the fastest pace in “days on market” on the Westside in years.
According to the National Association of Realtors in a recently released report reviewed on inventory and interest rates of the major metropolitan areas in the country stated that homes for sale are not lingering on the market for long. Properties on the market typically sold in 27 days, shorter than the 30-day median from a year ago.
The area that saw some of the quickest sales in July was the District of Columbia, where properties sold in just 17 days. Utah was next with 19 days, followed by Colorado, Idaho, Michigan, Ohio, South Dakota, and Washington, all at 20 days. San Jose (26 days), San Francisco (30 days) were two of the top three markets.
Eighty-six % of Realtors responding to the NAR survey reported that home prices remained constant or rose in July 2018, compared to levels one year ago (91% in July 2018). First-time buyers accounted for 32% of all sales vs. 33% in July 2018. Obviously low inventory and interest rates are the two major issues affecting transactions in July.
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Americans ‘love debt’ — banks, too!
One would think that after the Great Recession, American financial institutions would do a turn-about and change the way they interface with their customers — the people to whom they rent money. A lot of it. But in looking at the enormous growth in debt Americans are facing, we are piling up record levels of housing and credit card debt yet again.
A decade after the financial crisis, many households are no more prepared for an economic downturn today 
than they were then. And though there’s less risky lending in some areas, new worries have emerged.
For example, in 2005 and 2006, the peak years before the crash, government-backed loans accounted for only about 35% of all new mortgages; by last year, that figure had risen to 70%, according to the Urban Institute. Another example, in 2007 and 2008, industry leader Lending Club — who is one of the country’s broad-based consumer loan companies — made a mere $25 million in loans. So far this year it’s lent $3.8 billion. Investors say they’re not sure how these new types of loans will perform in a downturn.
Student and auto debt have soared, new types of loans backed by untested technology have hit the market and the average American has benefited little from the roaring stock and housing markets. But as one economist observed, “…if there’s a blowup in the housing market, it will not impact the banks like it did in the last cycle.”
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Middle income rose, poverty rate declined
While Americans are piling up debt, the economy is showing increased strength for middle-income workers. Middle-class income rose to the highest recorded levels in 2017 and the national poverty rate declined as the benefits of the strong economy lifted the fortunes of more Americans, the U.S. Census Bureau reported last week.
According to their data, the median U.S. household earned $61,372 last year, meaning half of the families in the country brought in more income than this and half earned less. Crossing the $61,000 mark signals the American middle-class may have finally earned more than it did in 1999, although the Census Bureau cautions that median income last year was not statistically different from 1999 or 2007. All of the above #s have been adjusted for inflation.
Economists have been worried about why wage growth has been so sluggish lately, but Americans are compensating for that by working longer hours or having another family member find employment. Job openings hit a record high in July, the Labor Department reported last week, and there are now more jobs available than unemployed workers. Isn’t that crazy? Hundreds of thousands of jobs are going unfulfilled in the U.S. because of a shortage of skilled workers.
With wages stagnant, home equity appears to be the only new source of current income for middle-class Americans. Home equity withdrawals accounted for more than 9% of disposable personal income just before the housing bubble burst, then “dried up overnight,” as Michael Calhoun of the Brookings Institution puts it, intensifying the post-crash economic slump.
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Fire season not over, be prepared
This year alone, California has lost 1,200 homes, 12 people, and more than 1.2 million acres to wild fires across the State. And it’s not over. Our ‘traditional’ fire season is just getting started, and during the next month, California is expected to see above-normal fire activity after a hot summer dried out grasses that grew long thanks to the state’s brief reprieve from drought. Expected Santa Ana winds will exacerbate any fire that starts. In other words, as a LAFD spokesperson stated — “our fire season is now all year long!”
This summer, more than a dozen fires were burning at the same time throughout Southern and Northern California, including some of the largest single wildfires in recorded state history. The amount of land that has burned at this time this year is almost equivalent to the 1.4 million acres that burned all of last year, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. It’s a significant uptick from the last nine years.
Unfortunately, California holds the top spot for acres burned, followed by Nevada and Oklahoma, and accounts for 10% of all acreage burned in the U.S. since 2000. Firefighters who have been on the job for decades have repeatedly expressed alarm about the changing behavior of fires, which have become more intense and less predictable, and the increasingly elongated fire season. : Here’s the LAFD web site https://www.lafd.org/safety/disaster-preparedness
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Transferring title in probate can be vexing
Sometimes, heirs face challenges in getting clear title to property after a loved one passes away. The easiest solution, of course, is that there is a will that makes the transfer easier. But even then, problems can arise. If there is a will, a representative of the deceased can submit the will to probate, and the property will be transferred according to the terms of the will. If the person has died intestate – meaning without a will – then the property will be awarded by the probate court in accordance with the laws of “intestate 
succession.”Problems can arise when a will is not probated. If the property changes hands as set forth in the will, but legal title has not been transferred by a probate court, the new owner may have difficulties when he/she wants o ell it because legal title is still in the name of the deceased.
It is worth noting — that when both spouses legally hold title to the real property, when one spouse dies, then transfer of title to the surviving spouse may occur without probate. However, if the surviving spouse was not named on the original deed, and the property was the decedent’s separate property, then ownership is determined either by the deceased’s will or by the laws of intestate succession (in the absence of a will). Best advice, check with your accountant and attorney to make sure all of your documents are in order and that you know how to properly handle the property transfer.
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Speakers Corner
I have a fabulous new listing in Bel Air Crest! It just came on the market the 14th, but as soon as it hit the MLS, I got calls for 2 showings that day, but I have shown it to two buyers, and both of them are considering writing offers. It is a 3/2.5 plus den that has been partially updated in the last few years. It has one of the rare 3 car garages, however, one of the spaces is currently being used as an office. The garden is very charming with a spa and a few citrus trees. The price is $1,995,000. My listing in Mountaingate is also still available. It will be open this coming Sunday, the 17th from 2 – 5, so please stop by and say hello.
I am also very excited to announce that my app… Carole Schiffer is now live. It is very easy to access. just go to app store on your phone, type in my name and you will be in business. It has all of the available listing in whatever area you want to look in and the information is accurate and live as it is coming from the MLS. There are a number of other functions and features I hope you will enjoy also.
Lastly, for those of you who celebrate, Happy Yom Kippur and I hope you have an easy fast!
Realtors, the state’s housing market backpedaled in July as higher interest rates and rising home prices eroded housing affordability and dampened demand.
It’s no surprise many home-buyers reach a point of total frustration in the process of purchasing a home these days. Paperwork and more paperwork. Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey revealed home buyers want the mortgage process to be less onerous and faster. But they also want more personal interaction as they navigate a transaction and very big decision in their life.
majority of home buyers surveyed also said they’d like to see the mortgage process—from application to closing—completed in one month. That is five days less than the current median process takes, which averages about 45 days.
In a report issued by NSF International, who tracks this sort of thing, it was found that the kitchen, not the bathroom, was the “germiest” place in the house. Luckily, you can easily conquer any potential contagion with a little elbow grease, bleach and a bunch of coffee to ramp up your motivation and tackle all the surfaces and more in your kitchen. Here are some handy tips….
the U.S. median sale price has risen by almost 7% over the past year, the principal-and-interest mortgage payment on that median-priced home has increased more than 14%.
rubber ducks, but it is an adaptation of the Japanese practice shinrin-yoku, which translates to forest bath, or taking a relaxed walk through nature. The Japanese government has recognized the practice since 1982 as a scientifically proven way to reduce stress, improve mood and even boost the immune system.
While the housing market continues to be somewhat of a challenge: Nationally housing starts grew only 0.9% in July from the prior month. This isn’t necessarily good news. Rather than a mere aberration, this could signal the emergence of a bearish “new normal” in housing. Why? A slowdown in the growth rate of the adult population is one factor. The less obvious trend is behavioral: Today’s young adults (think Millennials) are no longer rushing to set out on their own—and their parents are no longer yearning for an empty nest. Barring a drastic reversal in this trend, the housing market will have to cope with sustained slow growth for years to come. More than a third of Millennials are still living with their parents — delaying marriage, and thus delaying a need for a home.
starts over the last 12 months weigh in at of +1.2 million. That’s barely half of where it stood at the peak of the last business cycle. And, in fact, it is lower than at the peak of any business cycle going back almost all the way to World War II. Historical data on the U.S. housing stock reveal that even the America of then — the 1950s –out built the America of the 2010s. I find that amazing.
I know I am aging myself, but there is a fabulous classic song, “September Song” that makes me feel realize just how quickly this year is passing. With that having been said, I hope you had a wonderful Labor Day holiday!
holidays as we need to finish painting, and staging it. It is a 3/2.5, plus den for $1,995,000. I can probably start to show it the end of the 2nd week of the month, so if you have anyone for it, please let me know. With my listing in Mountaingate, the buyers who want to be in either of those two communities keep me on my toes.
in June to only 5% down in July 2018. That may not seem to set the world on fire, but we’ve been languishing behind our sales performance for 2018 compared to a year ago. Why is that? It’s because we have a continued lack of quality inventory that has historically been in high demand. Demand is still here.
July was actually a good month for median sales prices when comparing 2018 to July 2017. For example, Beverly Hills’s median sales price for last month was up 25% to $6.024 million over July 2017. Beverly Hills Post Office was 8% at $2.425 million. Westwood/Century City was up 18% at $2.005 million, and Brentwood was up 21% at $2.780 million. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was down 7% to $1.750 million and Malibu was down 26% from last July to $2.280 million.
with adjustable rates will keep growing more expensive. It also stems from the history that a number of longer term home owners remember how many people used their homes as ATM machines and ended up “under water or upside down” when the value of their homes went down and they owed more on their homes than it was worth, thus the short sales we experienced for a number of years.
Here’s the bad news — sales plunged over the same time period, indicating sky-high housing costs could be burning out many home shoppers. The six-county median — the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less — hit $536,250, real estate data firm CoreLogic stated last week. That’s up $6,250 from the previous record high, reached in May.
Freddie Mac. In June, when accounting for the rise in mortgage payments over the year, payments on a median-price home rose more than twice as quickly as the median price, LePage said.
and demand” is playing out as inventory drops but demand for luxury housing just doesn’t stop. The median sales price for a single-family luxury home grew 5.3% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, to $10 million, according to the recent published report. What constitutes a “luxury” home you might ask, any home with a sale price in the upper 10% of all the listings in that particular market, which as you can imagine varies from market to market.
that means inflated home values, already bursting at the seams. So, if a booming economy is going to be positive, it has to also stimulate home building, increasing inventories, and affordability. Affordability, especially for the largest home-buying generation in America — the Millennials, is their biggest challenge.
Why is it that the largest generation in U.S. history isn’t participating in real estate as heavily as its predecessors? There are many difficulties standing in their way according to new research.
I will be covering this recycling story in the next Schiffer Line also. It’s an important topic us to pay attention to make sure we are doing it right. Also, please do not forget about the safe recycling center on the UCLA campus. Their address is 550 Charles E Young Drive, West (just up the street from the UCLA Hospital). Their hours are Thursday & Friday 8-2 for Hazardous Waste ONLY, and on Sat from 9-3 for both Hazardous and Electric Waste. It is such a feel-good thing to do and quite easy!
anywhere, it was always about the food, the people who made the food, and the impact the food had on him and all of us. His musical background was/is also something that made him a very special person. What most people don’t know is the before food there was music. A lot of music. An accomplished cellist and conductor, Jonathan Gold offered up two wildly different personalities — loving classical and heavy metal. He was a celebrity… as a friend described whims a “combo of Falstaff and Custer.” He was credited, or blamed, for inventing the term “gangsta rap”. Jonathan Gold won the Pulitzer Prize while working as the Los Angeles Times restaurant critic. Although he appreciated and wrote beautifully about fine dining, he revered the taco truck more than the tasting menu.
While I must admit the heat takes some of my “stuffing out”, I continue to be busy working in this crazy business called Real Estate. I love it because it is always different. Everyone has a story and being a “people person” it is fun to meet and get to know different people all of the time.
are both waiting for their new owners to come and claim them and to make them theirs. Promontory is open almost every Sunday, so if you have yet to see it, please stop. Coming up soon are two Canyon homes for sale in Bel Air Crest, and a lease or two as well. Also, keep your eyes peeled for my new free app.. Carole Schiffer. It should be up and running in about a week or two and you will be able to get a ton of informatioon real estate, inventory, etc. I am very excited about it and hope you will enjoy using it.
Office, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City, and Brentwood) were up over 24% to $1.952 billion for the year…a nice number. A year later, however, we’re down nearly 10% from that number at $1.764 billion in total sales, which just underscores the current market in our communities: We have buyers, but we don’t have the broad selection of quality homes we are used to being offered in one of America’s most treasured real estate markets.
There have been 80 closed sales of $10-plus million this year, versus 94 at this time last year, down15% and we have seen only 24 sales of $20-plus million this year, versus 32 at this time last year, down 25%. Of these, 13 were sales of $30 million this year, versus 15 at this time last year. We are ahead of last year in 40 plus million-dollar sales. Only five last year and seven so far this year.
reflect the trend line for these communities for the calendar year…from January 1 onward. Beverly Hills, which had a great June, is now at $6.355 million median sales price through the first six months of 2018. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills is up 10% at $2.382 million, Westwood/Century City is up 11% ate $2.275 million, and Culver City was up an impressive 31% for the first six months of the year at $1.320 million. Brentwood was even for the year at $2.196 million and Beverly Hills Post Office was down 11% at $2.619 million. Also, once again a particularly high or low sale will skew these numbers.
The nation’s housing inventory increased 12.2% in the second quarter, the biggest gain since early 2015…. but housing supplies were still down 5.3% from a year ago, a dynamic that has continued to push up prices. That is less than the double-digit annual declines that had prevailed since the second quarter of 2017 and the smallest drop since early 2017. Thirty of the nation’s 100 largest metro areas saw their housing supplies increase on an annual basis last quarter. That’s up from just 13 early in the year and represents the largest share of big cities with rising inventories in more than three years.
Francisco earthquake and the 1994 Northridge quake, we have been especially sensitive to monitoring building safety codes. Just last month, I reported the coming study that the diagnostic processes and data used to evaluate the safety of tall buildings was undergoing radical assessment. The news thus far appears to state that the outcome of this report would not be ‘good news.’
jobs were reported lost in the rental and leasing services sector. The best news is that an increase in construction jobs could also foreshadow a positive trend for the real estate industry, according to Mark Fleming, the chief economist of First American.
Yes, it seems Spring Cleaning season is over, and now it’s time for home improvement…and that’s why you’re seeing all these ads from various business promoting this theme. Summer and sunshine spawn positive attitudes, especially about your home and ‘your next project.”
to see what other homeowners have had to say…trust me, there is a lot of sand-bagging going on, both positive and negative…so my advice — actually talk to a reference. I would even take it a step further and go see the project they worked on. #3 – Do a “gut” check. Yes, face-to-face meetings are important — look them in the eye, scan their appearance and their “on-time” performance. Do they return your phone calls, keep appointments? #4 – Pay with a Paper Trail. Never pay cash. Have legitimate, understandable invoices. If you pay for supplies, make sure you store them in your home. Do not make upfront payments but pay your bills on time. and #5 — Keep Written Records of Everything. Get it in writing. Make copies of licenses and insurance/bonds. Keep your estimates and any change orders…make sure they give you a change order in writing, too.
perhaps as far off as next year. I love hearing from all of you and look forward to working with you so that when the time comes we are ready to “rock & roll”. Please keep those calls and thoughts coming. Currently we are still marketing my lovely home in Mountaingate at 12547 Promontory for $2,450,000. I will be there for the next two Sundays and look forward to seeing any of you who decide to stop by and say hello. I have a few homes coming up for sale and lease, so please watch for them on my web site. Caroleschiffer.com
As we all know, Los Angeles was hit with a record setting heat wave the week of the 4th of July, which caused a good amount of plant damage. They are predicting that we may experience two more heat waves this summer, so we all need to be prepared. Dead head (or remove) any and all totally brown leaves or buds from your plants and keep them well watered. Leaf drop is said to be healthy as the trees are shedding their dead growth to make room for new growth.
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