Timely Real Estate News……………………………..15 March 2019
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The numbers can be painful – but we need to understand them.
Was it too good to last? Sellers managed to elevate themselves to such a level that their high prices — combined with a lack of inventory — had accomplished one thing: Sales are off by 19.7% through the first two months of 2019 compared to a year ago. Total sales volume through February 28 was $737 million vs. $465 million in 2018.
One can’t blame the lack of sales on just sellers’ enthusiasm — other factors like rising mortgage rates and terrible weather contributed to a slow-down in the market. Still, the drop in sales volume by nearly 20% for the first two months of 2019 reflects — perhaps — a shift from a sellers’ to a buyers’ market. Time will tell.
Notable sales drops were seen in Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, where sales through February were down $51 million compared to a year ago. Both Beverly Hills Post Office and Westwood/Century City were each off by $21 million in total sales for the year, and Brentwood was down only $7 million through the first two months. Two other cities I cover include Venice, which was down $10 million in total sales compared to a year ago, and Playa Vista, which was up $4 million.
What is happening when digging deeper into the data from the MLS, many homes are actually selling closer — or at — the asking price, and many are even over. I’m seeing this through the communities I cover each month — and compared to the overall data provided by the MLS, the always-important number to watch is “sales price compared to original listing price”, and it’s rising again, with most areas in the mid-90% range compared to the mid-80% just last month.
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Median Sales Prices have ‘hits’, ‘misses’
There is no crystal ball in predicting how median sales prices are going to turn out each month…I’ve learned my lesson. With a ’touchy’ market with rising mortgage rates, tight inventory, and some high prices in most neighborhoods, I’m seeing some wild fluctuations, especially in Beverly Hills which saw a record median sales price for January of $11.837 million, but it, too, has moderated with the MSP now at a realistic $7.400 million compared to $7.224 million a year ago, for a 13% increase. BHPO was up 2% to $2.607 million…Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was down a rather surprising 58% to $1.544 million, but this February figure is, I believe, an anomaly, and it will jump back as we enter Spring. Part of the anomaly is the fact that in Feb 2018 – there were three large sales, $5,050,000, $7,075,000 and $18,000 were as in Feb of 2019 there was only one sale for $3,250,000 in the multiple listing service (I do not use the information from any private sales in these reports).
Brentwood was up 1% to $2.900 million and Westwood/Century City was down 18% to $1.863 million median sales price (in Westwood in2019 there really were no sales of major consequence in terms of price vs. three healthy sales in February 2018). Venice didn’t move the needle in February compared to last year, as it was at $1.999 million, just $100,000 ahead of February 2018, and Playa del Rey was down 3% to $1.645 million.
While I don’t have a crystal ball, my extensive research of individual sales records these past few weeks show a growing strength in our pricing methods: Sales are closing much nearer to the asking price — across the board. Sellers, I feel, are becoming much more realistic and sensitive to the real estate market and trends. Yes, we have a strong economy now, but we all realize that our view of the economy starts in our home and in our workplace. As a responsible agent, I must tell you of the need for both agents and sellers to change their perspective in setting prices. For a very long time, we have been using the sold properties as the comparables for setting our listing prices, today we need to use the prices of the active listings, and take into consideration the length of time the property has been on the market. If a property has been sitting for a while with no price change you do not want to follow that pattern in setting your listing price. The goal is to get the property sold as quickly as possible at a fair and reasonable price that works for everyone involved. One point I am always making to my seller clients is that unless the transaction is all cash, the buyer has a partner in the purchase of the house and that is the bank, and generally they have a larger stake in the property than a buyer has with the buyer owning the 20% down and the bank the remaining 80% , and believe it or not, banks really don’t want to own property. They are going to look very hard at the appraisals for the loans they are making and if it doesn’t appraise then the loan is not made and everyone is back to square one.
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We’re dumping good water in the ocean
In February, California received a whopping 18 trillion gallons of rain but much of it went ‘down the drain’ heading for the Pacific Ocean. What has become a source of much concern, however, in a state prone to droughts and water shortages, the vast majority of rainwater in urban areas flows into storm drains and it eventually ends up in the ocean. Bottom-line: We haven’t figured out how to save this water.
According to Mark Gold, associate vice chancellor for environment and sustainability at UCLA, “when you look at the Los Angeles River being between 50% and 70% full during a storm, you realize that more water is running down the river into the ocean than what Los Angeles would use in close to a year. It’s such a waste.”
For Southern California, this is shaping up to be the wettest winter in years — serving as a reminder of how much water is wasted when the skies open up. We have already exceeded our average seasonal rainfall of 14.70 inches — we’re at 23.09 inches through mid-March. That’s 54% ahead of the 2017-2018 season.
Local agencies and the Corps of Engineers are working on capturing more of the runoff, but it’s a complex and expensive task. For sure, “March came in like a lion…” The storms have significantly boosted the snowpack in the Sierra, which is a major source of California’s water. As the snow melts, it’s collected in a series of rivers, dams and reservoirs and sent to farms and cities. Experts are working on putting water back into underground aquifers. But it’s a long, expensive process.
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Most homeowners planning renovations for 2019
Notice all the work-a-bees parked on your street lately? Well, they’re part of the “renovation crews” fixing up your neighbors’ homes. More than 73% of homeowners say they plan to renovate this year, up 26% from a year ago, according to a national survey. Homeowners plan to spend more on projects, too—an average of about $9,000. That marks the highest amount since the survey began in 2014, and it’s 32% more than last year.
The most popular remodeling projects include outdoor space (41%), the bathroom (37%), and the kitchen (31%). Survey respondents say that if money wasn’t a factor, they would remodel their kitchen (42%), followed by replacing carpet with other flooring (41%), and then remodeling the bathroom (39%), according to the survey.
Homeowners appear to be more focused on creating a space they love than increasing the value of their home. Twenty-seven % of respondents say that personalization was their number one motivator for investing in a home renovation, followed by increasing the value of their home (14%), improving a home for resale (7%), and preparing for a major life event (4%), such as a new baby or retirement. Caution: Financial stress comes along with the renovation ordeal and can hinder the process. This usually results from improper budgeting and not finding well-qualified contractors whom you can rely on. Check references. Get realistic budgets and plan for contingencies.
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New FEMA flood insurance could cost more
Federal officials are struggling with how to reform the federal flood insurance program, which is already deeply in debt. Federal officials are reportedly exploring a new flood insurance reform plan that would rely more heavily on data, potentially offering homeowners more transparency about the risks they face while also driving up rates in some areas.
We have already seen in Los Angeles County mudslides and flooding as a result of the recent Woolsey Fire in Malibu, Topanga Canyon, and Ventura County. Over the years, we’ve seen most parts of Los Angeles County experiencing costly floods and mudslides…so it’s a real issue for homeowners.
The proposed plan would use data, referred to as “commercial catastrophe models,” to more accurately calculate the actual risk that homes face from flooding. That would contrast with the current system, which uses more generalized data and can thus lead to people in very different parts of flood plains paying the same amount for insurance.
Under the proposed new system, however, someone living in a higher risk area would pay more while people in lower risk areas would pay less. FEMA spokesperson David Maurstad said that the agency is transforming its flood insurance program “to better reflect industry best practices and to improve the policyholder experience.”
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It’s elementary” — Sellers homes must ’sparkle’
Selling a home can be stressful —escaping while you home is open houses for a few hours, constantly fixing up the outside and inside, and still trying to keep your sanity through the selling experience. There is plenty of advice to go around when putting your home on the market. Here’s mine…. I just want to share with you some very simple, handy hints that will insure your home “sparkles” for those very important prospects….
1) Make sure you dust and floors are swept — Sweep and clean all the hard-surfaced floors, and if needed, use a cleaning towel or sponge to clean up spots. Make sure the baseboards and TV sets are wiped clean. 2) Make sure the countertops sparkle — remove the clutter, wipe clean and store small appliances, knick-knacks and odds/ends; 3) Beds should be made and pillows fluffed — Can you bounce a dime off your bed? Have new, fresh bed spreads and pillows, — so that your bedrooms look inviting. Make sure you remove the trash and pet supplies.
4) Vacuum the carpets — nothing looks better than recently vacuumed carpets…you are ready for them!” 5) Let the sunshine in — open up the window shades and blinds, shutters… and why not put in fresh flowers in the living or dining room? Make sure your windows are clean. And finally, 6) Put all the dirty dishes and pots/pans in the dish washer and no dirty clothes.
Buying a home, as you well know, is an emotional decision. Appeal to the best senses of buyers by showing them what a great home you have. Sparkle!
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A ‘growing’ home trend — Garden kitchens
Here is a ‘perky’ idea — put Mother Nature into your kitchen. Living plants are appearing on the back or tops of kitchen islands. They’re also appearing as wall shelving, which include grow lights to keep them thriving even when tucked away onto shelves. In one extreme example of the trend, a dwarf citrus tree was growing in the middle of a kitchen island made by Italy’s Aran Cucine. It included its own irrigation system.
For those who want to keep their plants more contained, they can opt for an under-counter appliance that will grow, light, and water the plants for them. Manufacturers of one such product–the Urban Cultivator—say they’ve been selling most units in coastal markets and high-end communities.
According to Forbes, “plants in the kitchen can provide seasonings for food and fresh ingredients for salads, soups, entrees, and sides, and plants can also create a welcoming atmosphere for residents and guests alike.”
It’s not just the kitchen that is seeing more plants. Plants are entering more master bathrooms to evoke an indoor-outdoor spa and appearing in more living spaces.
The plant movement is gaining attention thanks to studies that increasingly show the benefits of having houseplants, which have been linked to purifying the air, boosting your mood, and even lowering the risk of illness. Homeowners are adding edible plants in the kitchen to use while cooking. That’s a fun idea.
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My Real Estate World

Generally, am not one to pat myself on the back, but I must say that I am once again proud and honored to be part of the top 6% of the sales agents for Coldwell Banker country -wide for 2018. I was also recently awarded for my participation in the referrals for our excellent mortgage affiliate, Guaranteed Rate Affinity. I am constantly amazed at the breath and variety of programs they have for all of our clients. So, THANK YOU TO ALL OF MY CLIENTS FOR THE HONOR AND JOY OF REPRESENTING YOU AND I LOOK FORWARD TO MORE OF THE SAME AND KEEP THOSE REFERRALS COMING IN.
I have had the listing for this lovely condo in Westwood for a few weeks. It feels like a home and we have had a very favorable strong reaction to it, so much so that it appears we have it sold with a short 2 week escrow, to a young family that is purchasing it for their in laws to be near their new born grandchild. It has been on the market for just a few weeks, and we actually thought we had it sold last 
week, but the buyer changed their mind at the 11th hour. I am in the process of listing a warm, gracious home on lower Roscomare in the Bel Air. It sits on a very large lot (33,793 square feet) that currently services as a fruit orchard and garden. The house is almost $3,000 sq. feet and has been remodeled. Please look for the photos, etc. on my web site in the coming week. In the meantime, please remember that I have two leases available in Bel Air Crest, and another one coming up soon in Westwood Hills. I am here to serve and assist you with any and all of your real estate needs. Please let me know how I can be of help.
Happy “Wearing of the Green”
Wearing of the Green on St. Patrick’s Day?
Like many of us, wearing green on St. Patrick’s Day is a long-held tradition. Not wearing green can get you into trouble — which says that if you don’t display green somewhere, you’re likely to get pinched!
There’s plenty of green to go around for this annual March 17th event – Americans spend nearly $5 billion to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day, which is Sunday this year. That may seem like a lot of green, but it doesn’t compare to the green spent on Valentine’s Day (think “red”), which generates over $21 billion for that non-holiday. July 4th, a national holiday, garners only $6.9 billion in spending.
We Americans celebrate St. Patrick’s Day with parades, green beer, and corn beef/cabbage and Shephard’s pie.
All I can say — Wear the Green and enjoy St. Patrick’s Day!

We are seeing sales slipping behind last year’s numbers – not surprising to us on the Westside as sales volume has taken a downward turn. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing-home sales experienced a minor drop for the third consecutive month in January. Of the four major U.S. regions, only the Northeast saw an uptick in sales activity last month.
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 357,730 units in January, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local realtor associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2019 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
We are behind in our high-end sales on the Westside, which follows the trends set last year. Sales in the $5 million-plus category are lagging compared to January 2017 — there have been 39 closed sales of $5 million-plus this year versus 52 in 2018, a drop of 25%.
Ten % believe a recession will begin this year, 42% project one next year, and 25% expect a contraction starting in 2021, according to a semiannual National Assn. for Business Economics survey released last week. The rest of the poll of nearly 300 members conducted from Jan. 30 to Feb. 8 expect a recession later than 2021 or expressed no opinion.
Student loan debt and rising housing costs in the last few years have been cited as the chief reasons why many young adults are continuing to move back in with their parents. But a new Homes.com study suggests the real trigger may be a broken heart.
The recent rain mix with the predicted sun and high temperatures in the coming week will give the wildflowers the extra boost they need for a full bloom this season, recently said Toni Alexander, a retired Anza-Borrego Desert State Park volunteer naturalist. “The sun next week will give the flowers a chance to come to full bloom,” Alexander said. “But also keep in mind that not all wildflowers bloom at the same time.”
The snowpack in the Sierra is already 111% of normal for this time of year, and we have already surpassed our average rain fall in Los Angeles County, and its still winter.
Generally, business is good. Thank you. I have a wonderful new listing of an elegant condo in the Westwood Ambassador building in Westwood, and we are having a great response. It is a first-floor corner unit
that is very light and bright with large open rooms, and the prevailing comments are “It feels just like a home!” We are asking $1,050,000 and it is very easy to see. So, if you know anyone interested in making a life style change of any kind, please let me know and I will be more than happy to show it to you and them. There are a few listings coming up in Bel Air Crest, Mountaingate and Westwood Hills, but there is always room for more business.
Beverly Hills has consistently outpaced the rest of Los Angeles’s famous Westside in home prices, but zoomed past what it did a year ago of $7.6 million, a 54% increase. This was accomplished with total sales of $62.5 million for January compared to just $48.4 million in 2018.
One key statistic I use to measure the “strength of the market” is the Original-Listing-Price to Selling Price that the MLS tracks each month. Overall, the OLP/SP is down to 84%, meaning that homes are selling for 84% of their original asking price. Beverly Hills, for example, while achieving high sales prices compared to the rest of the Westside market, the OLP/SP was 76%, meaning sellers are taking nearly 25% off their original price to move their property. As I have been writing for years, homes that are competitively priced will move quicker than homes that are not. It’s that simple.
Homebuyers may be in for a treat as we move further into 2019. Already, mortgage rates hit their lowest monthly average in nearly a year last month, and 15% of listings saw a price cut in the same period. Top that off with overall job growth — including 9,000 new jobs in the residential construction sector alone —it seems the housing market may finally be shifting in buyers’ favor, at least partially.
The five most expensive housing markets in the fourth quarter were the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, California metro area, where the median existing single-family price was $1,250,000; San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, California, $952,400; Urban Honolulu, $812,900; Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine, California, $799,000; and San Diego-Carlsbad, $626,000.
1) Forgetting or ignoring simple stuff, such as the toilet that runs constantly, the faucet that has a slow drop. A little crack in the deck — all of these can lead to bigger issues down the road, so it is less expensive and easier to fix now.
With online tools, a little bit of forethought, and a willingness to explore, it’s easy to feel confident about your potential new neighborhood. Here’s a good place to start. Ask yourself these five questions when choosing a home base.
“I have certain criteria,” Sherman says. “I wanted people that hopefully were longtime customers, which I found. People that knew how to run a business and were successful at doing that, I found. People that wanted to keep our employees. That I found. People that didn’t have to make this a big business to survive, to get their money back right away. And people who don’t want to change it. And I got all that. All those points I was able to find in one group of people.”
I am very busy. I have two lovely leases available in Bel Air Crest, one a 3/2/5 plus den that has been remodeled and is available for $10,900 and the other a fabulous 4/3.5 3
level home furnished with elevator, and pool available for $15,025. You can see the photos on my web site, caroleschiffer.com and both are easy for you to see.
The Federal Reserve adopted a market-friendly, cautious position by not raising interest rates in their meeting on January 30. The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady and said it will be “patient” as it weighs further hikes, signaling a new wait-and-see approach until it gets a better read on a slowing economy and volatile financial markets.
For example, in Los Angeles and Orange counties, year-over-year price increases peaked at 8.2% in April of last year and have declined every month since. In October, home prices in these counties rose 5.5% over the previous year, according to the latest available data from the closely watched S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index.
California home sales declined for the eighth straight month in December, and a stagnating market for much of the year pushed sales lower in 2018 for the first time in four years as reported last week by the California Association of Realtors.
The Pending Home Sales Index, which is based on contract signings, decreased 2.2% to 99.0 in December, down from 101.2 in November. Additionally, year-over-year contract signings fell 9.8%, making this the twelfth straight month of annual decreases. Pending home sales show how many homes have entered the escrow process and is an indicator of future, final sales.
owners and their accountants can rest a bit easier. The Internal Revenue Service has provided the long-anticipated final word on how small business owners can claim one of the biggest perks in the 2017 tax overhaul.
Coldwell Banker is instituting some new marketing programs which will be very exciting and fun. One of them will be a monthly drawing for you, my clients and friends of a drawing for a trip, gift certificate, etc. What this means for those of you who receive the Schiffer Line on line, is that starting the 5th of February, you will be receiving one (1) additional email a month from me, through Coldwell Banker, inviting you to join the contest. The winner for each area will be announced each month. For those of you who currently receive the Schiffer Line via snail mail, and wish to be part of the contest, please let me know your email contact information, and you will be
added to the distribution list.
and luxurious with 4/3.5, family room, pool and bonus room, available furnished for $15,025 a month. Please let me know if you have any interest or know anyone who might be interested in these properties. Coming up in the next few months, I have a few sale and lease listings in Bel Air Crest, Mountaingate, Westwood Hills and Westwood. I will keep you posted on timing, etc.
happening across America — rising home prices, rising inventories, higher mortgage rates which led to fewer sales. However, the last few weeks has been a roller coaster effect with the stock market going up and down in broad sweeps, interest rates going down then coming back up again, and bond rates changing as well. As a result, buyers are more cautious and home sellers are seeing the possibly that the “party of it being a sellers’ market is over” and are coming off of their prices somewhat. We are starting to see an increase in inventory which is most welcome.
compared to 2017’s totals. That’s not surprising as we have homes sitting longer on the market (being overpriced is one reason). The sales volume was $3.443 billion for all of 2018 — down from $3.790 billion for 2017 — for the five communities I cover each moth which include Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City, and Brentwood.
Beverly Hills Post Office, which was minus 15% at $2.780 million. Beverly Hills stayed 1% ahead of last year at $5.972 million; Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 16% for 2018 at $2.730 million. Westwood/Century City was up 11% at $2.215 million. Brentwood was essentially even with last year at $3.170 million median sales price.
same period last year. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 14%, Westwood/Century City was up 22%. Malibu, pre-fire, was up 110% over last December 2017, at $4,150 million. BHPO was down 39% and Brentwood was down $12% for December MSP.
Google further expands its presence in Los Angeles.
In 2018 alone, the U.S. spent $19.8 billion on smart home technology. It is predicted graphene will revolutionize the smart home industry and become a key factor in smart home technology advancements and innovations.
The markets that saw home prices outpace wage growth by some of the highest amounts were: Los Angeles County.; Cook County (Chicago), Ill.; Harris County (Houston), Texas; Maricopa County (Phoenix), Ariz.; San Diego County; Orange County, Calif.; and Miami-Dade County, Fla.
One of the big hits was “Ring”, the video door-bell cam system that was, ironically, turned down by the Shark Tank, and is now offering more options such as smart sensors for home lights and their newest product, the Door View Cam, which takes the place of the peephole. KitchenAid is offering up a Smart Oven — their smart oven syncs with the KitchenAid and Yummly apps for those who like to control the cooking process from a phone, be it by setting a timer and temperature or checking the remaining cooking time. All these can be managed on the oven or over a phone app.
The population of western monarch butterflies in California’s coastal areas is apparently taking a nosedive. Researchers with the environmental group Xerces Society, along with volunteers, take to the state’s coastal areas each year to count the number of overwintering monarchs. The data provides scientists the”best estimate of how well this beloved butterfly is doing,” the group said.
Do you know someone who wants to lease a home in Bel Air Crest? If so, please have them contact me. I have two leases coming on the market this week. One is a lovely 3/2.5, plus den home that has been remodeled – asking price, $10,500. The other is a fabulous 4/3.5 den with pool, elevator that is being offered furnished for $15,500. Both could be available for two-year leases. I am working with some potential sellers as well, but have nothing definite to share with you at this point. Coming mid-March will be another home for lease in Westwood Hills. We are working on it currently.

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