The SchifferLine
Timely Real Estate News…………………….15 January 2021
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Los Angeles Housing report — how CB sees it
Coldwell Banker issued its forecast for 2021 Housing for Los Angeles, highlighting the increased in median sales prices and marginal decreases in inventory. The CB annual forecast stated that there will be 1.5% less homes for sale in January, and that home prices will increase from 5% to 7% as result of this demand-supply shortage.
What this means is that many homebuyers will be facing a hot, competitive market, especially during the typically active selling period starting in Spring and ending in the Fall. Although we didn’t really see a slowdown in sales this last Fall, CB anticipates that the lack of inventory will surely frustrate buyers.
What CB sees, however, is that closed escrows will increase 6% to 10% — depending on area — compared to the market being down 5% in 2020 (as reported earlier in the SchifferLine).
But the forecast said that while mortgage rates are now at record lows (around 2.66%), they will eventually rise to 3.5% by year’s end, so it is imperative that if you still want these record low rates, you need to move quickly. Bottom line: The 2021 market will be where we left the 2020 market — HOT! Low mortgage rates, stronger economic recovery as we get more people vaccinated, and strong housing demand will favor sellers…which will last into Autumn. Sellers may have their sway in the first half of 2021 according to CB, but buyers will begin to make headway in better pricing come Fall.
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Home prices continue upward….
For the most part, 2020 ended on a happy note —home prices continued their steady upward climb, while sales volume was creeping back to pre-2020 levels.
For the five communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City, and Brentwood, the average increase in median sales prices at year’s end was 4% compared to a year ago, December 2019. Median sales prices increased 4% for four of these communities for the year — over 2019 year-end prices. Beverly Hills Post Office, however, posted a gain of 11%, ending with $3.150 million median sales price. Beverly Hills ended up 4% at $5.475 million, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills ended up at $2.350 million, Westwood/Century City was at $2.362 million for 2020, and Brentwood was up 4% at $3.3225 million. Venice — a community which I serve as well — had $2.015 median sales price, which recorded no change from 2019 year-end #s.
2020 has been a year of steady price increases which has been the norm for the nation’s real estate market in times of smaller inventories and higher demand. Even the pandemic could not stop the buyer onslaught in our market — demand is outpacing supply, causing these steady increases.|
Sales volume makes inroads….
Total sales for 2020 for these five communities was $3.906 billion, only 4% behind 2019 year-end’s total, which was $4.095 billion. At the end of November, we were down 5%. There were the normal ups and downs in terms of sales volume in each of these markets — The big contributor to sales volume’s increase was Beverly Hills Post Office which had a net increase of $225 million in total sales compared to 2019.
Brentwood also was in the positive at $60 million more than in 2019, while Beverly Hills, the normal front-runner in sales volume, was behind $165 million in total sales. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was down $281 million, and Westwood/Century City was off by $29 million from the year before. Venice sales volume was up 30% over 2019 at $465 million vs. $358 million.
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Pending home sales slide 2.6%
Nationally, pending home sales declined 2.6% in November, according to the National Association of Realtors. Month-over-month contract activity fell in each of the four major U.S. regions. However, compared to a year ago, all four areas achieved gains in pending home sales transactions.
The Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, fell 2.6% to 125.7 in November, the third straight month of decline. Year-over-year, contract signings climbed 16.4%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.
“The latest monthly decline is largely due to the shortage of inventory and fast-rising home prices,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “It is important to keep in mind that the current sales and prices are far stronger than a year ago.”
Yun predicts a favorable outlook for the housing market in the coming year. According to his 2021 projections, there will be a slight upward rise in mortgage rates to around 3% from the current 2.7% rate. Existing-home sales are expected to increase roughly 10% and new home sales by 20% next year.
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High-end sales surging
What we are seeing is that high-end sales on LA’s Westside are stronger than ever as we enter 2020. The number of closed sales of $5 million-plus by year’s end are 706, versus 560 at this time last year up 26%. Of
these, 205 were $10 million-plus this year and there were 162 $10 million-plus sales at this time last year, up 27%.
There were 59 at $20 million-plus this year, and there were 43 closed sales of $20 million-plus at this time last year up 37%.
It is interesting to note that even though we have had so many more $20 million-plus sales this year, there were more $30 and $40 million-plus sales in 2019, which might indicate that prices were adjusted downward for some of the higher-priced and over-priced homes. There were 17 closed sales of $30 million-plus this year, versus 21 at this time last year and seven $40 million- plus sales this year, versus 10 at this time last year.
As of the end of December, there are 83 pending sales of $5 million-plus at the moment, 23 of these are $10 million-plus and three are $20 million-plus.
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Mortgage rules toughen up for vacation hot spots
Many of you might own a condo in a vacation area and when not in use, it is put into a rental program to earn extra $$. Well, mortgage financing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have tightened the rules on buildings that offer too many short-term rentals in vacation locales.
This is drawing objections from the real estate industry. The new rules could make it tougher for some buyers to get a mortgage on condos in resort areas, and many real estate professionals aren’t happy about it, The Wall Street Journal reports.
Fannie Mae’s new rules, which took effect December 7, 2020, says the government-sponsored enterprise would no longer back loans in high-rent vacation spots. Freddie Mac echoed that decision, with similar rules to take effect in February.
That could make entire buildings ineligible for mortgage financing even though just a few units are rented out on a short-term basis, real estate professionals argue. Fannie Mae said the new rules are focused on banning “condotel” buildings that are organized centrally through management, rental, and realty companies. They said the new rules are not focused on individuals who may offer their units up for short-term lease.
As a result of this Fannie Mae’s declaration, lenders are now becoming much more sensitive to making loans where homeowners are anticipating income from their units. As a result, all lenders are shutting down loans on these condo units until this is more clarity on the subject.
The counter of that is that a number of communities such as Bel Air Crest and Mountaingate do not allow short term rentals, with a minimum of a six-month lease required. If you are thinking of renting your property out on a short-term basis, please check with me and I can assist you in finding out what the regulations are in your neighborhood.
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Other loan news!
My lender, Simon Atik at Guaranteed Rate Affinity, tells me that he has a few 12- and 24-month bank statement deposit loans which doesn’t require tax returns.
For a 10% jumbo, they are SLOWLY coming back. At the moment, he is at 10% down up to $1.5M. Most likely loans up to $3M will be back as they were pre pandemic, but they come with HORRIBLE pricing and do require a lot of reserves. Also, what that means is that the purchase can be up to $3M if you don’t have a lot of assets. This program is really for those with strong assets who don’t want to liquidate or cash out of their stock or retirement portfolio and are possibly low on cash.
As more information and these programs become available, I will share that information with you in future Schiffer Lines.
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Americans accrued $7,512 additional debt in 2020
Clever Real Estate’s latest survey revealed the average American’s non-mortgage debt burden increased by $7,512 in 2020 due to booming unemployment.
The Covid-19 pandemic and ensuing economic fallout pushed millions of American to the brink as they relied on unemployment benefits, credit cards, and savings to stay afloat. Now that 2020 is behind us, researchers are starting to provide more complete analyses of how renters and homeowners navigated a volatile economic landscape.
From March to December 2020, the average American increased their non-mortgage debt by $7,512, according to their survey. Fifty-two % of the 1,000 respondents said they carry a monthly balance on their credit card, and 79% said the balance is more than $1,000.
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Staying Safe in Fire Zones
With the La Nina weather conditions we are experiencing, high winds, more brush growth and lack of rain, we all need to be extra careful in properly maintaining our properties to safeguard them against the horrible fires we have experienced in the last few years.
One of the easy ways we can do this is to increase the distance from our homes and all plant material. It has been suggested that we take this from two (2) feet to five (5) feet. I know this sounds excessive and for me would have me remove some trees, etc. which frankly I am not prepared to do. But we can and should keep all of our plant material trimmed and possibly change some of the plants we have that are more flammable than others.
Another thing we can and should do is to install vents in the exterior of our homes that would hopefully prevent those flames from entering homes through the attic, once that happens we can pretty much count on us having a major fire in the house. There are a few companies that do this, and most include the vents at the bottom of the house also. Some insurance companies are also offering discounts if you install these vents. I have done it at my home and feel more secure in knowing I have taken some steps to protect my property. If you can the name of the company I used, please let me know.
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Staying Safe Period
I know you all are most likely like me and are suffering from Covid fatigue. However, with the vaccines here now, and the hope that we all will be able to get them sooner rather than later, I hope that you all maintain your safe living practices, WEAR THAT MASK, MAINTAIN THE 6 FEET DISTANCE FROM OTHER FOLKS, WASH YOUR HANDS FREQUENTLY AND STAY HOME. We all know someone who has lost a loved one to Covid.. hopefully let’s work together to stop the spread of this horrible disease!


I want to wish all of you a very Happy New Year!
It is that time of year for us to celebrate…even in these pandemic times, we need to count our blessings and cherish our family and friends. With so many holiday traditions going virtual, this is all so new for us. There are fun things we can do…having a Zoom Holiday party is probably on your list. How about a contest on facetime or zoom where you dress up as your favorite holiday song, and everyone has to guess what/who you are, I know what I will be dressed up as, what about you? Our Thanksgiving Zoom call was so successful, we are doing it again, and are opening our presents together! However you celebrate the holidays I just want to wish you all the very best for the New Year!
“The ’20s will be roaring, but with several months of hardship first,” according to the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast. “These next few months will be dire, with rising COVID infections, continued social distancing, and the expiration of social assistance programs.
Even if the state builds more homes, commercial construction is unlikely to revive soon. If the higher rates of working-from-home and online shopping persist to a moderate extent after the pandemic is over, we’ll be over-supplied on office and retail space.
The big winner in sales volume increases was Beverly Hills Post Office, which gained some $230 million compared to the first 10 months in 2019, but the other areas were behind with Bel-Air/Holmby Hills off by $249 million and Beverly Hills down $120 million for the year in sales volume. In the last week or so, a number of mega sales of over $60,000,000 have been reported in both the Beverly Hills Post Office and Bel Air. These sales will be reflected in my Annual Report which I will be sending out after the first of the year.
Home median sales prices have moderated somewhat — Beverly Hills is up 4% through the first 11 months at $6.475 million; BHPO is also up 4% at $2.950 million. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills moved up 3% to $2.230 million, Westwood/Century City was up 7% at $2.360 million, and Brentwood was even for the past 10 months at $3.233 million.
Fifty (50) of these were $20 million-plus this year, and there were 41 closed sales of $20 million-plus at this time last year (up 22%). We are even in the $30 million-plus sales, with 16 for both years. We have had seven (7) $40 million-plus sales this year, and there were eight (8) at this time last year. And there are 70 pending sales of $5 million-plus at the moment, 16 of these are over $10 million.
As median sales prices continue their upward climb, home buyers are taking on bigger mortgages as they compete in a fierce housing market and face higher home prices. The average home purchase loan amount reached $375,000 last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That represents the highest average home mortgage since the MBA began the survey in 1990.
Many homeowners have updated or improved their homes during the pandemic. Major remodeling
Looked in your pantry lately? Would you say that your pantry is deluxe? According to a recent study the walk-in pantry has emerged as one of the most desirable kitchen feature for home buyers.
Unlike other virtual meetings, only the City and Berggruen panel members could be seen, and written questions were not visible. Attendees had no clue if questions were being skipped or paraphrased. A question about the entrance on Sepulveda was eventually read but the city did not have a drawing or an idea of what the design will be. No comment from the Berggruen panel on that question. There were a lot of comments suggesting that it be built elsewhere, but the city planning members responded that they are only reviewing the request as submitted. Zoning variances come up a lot. Brush fires, wildlife, noise, and traffic comments as well.

As I have reported earlier, despite being in an extreme, pandemic environment, the housing market is showing growing strength as we near the end of 2020. The median price for the U.S. market in October came in at $313,000, for the 104th straight month of year-over-year price gains. We have not seen this growth pace since 2006. Existing home sales rose for the fifth consecutive month to an annual rate of 6.85 million units — and that is up 4.3% from September, and sales were 26.6% higher than we saw a year ago.
With three firms already announcing results of a Covid-19 vaccine that is 90% to 94.5% effective, this has spurred tremendous optimism across the real estate landscape. While the actual timing of the vaccines availability depends on a myriad different logistics, the news gives hope for a future not dominated by COVID-19, especially at a time when numbers are spiking in states and cities — especially in Los Angeles County where new restrictions are being issued.
Depending on one’s situation, homeowners are now seriously considering swimming pools and large outdoor kitchens, something that was not on their pre-pandemic wish list. They are re-imagining their entire outdoor environment, creating designed gardens, fountain areas, and combining all of their favorite elements.
In most of the country, the 2021 maximum conforming loan limit for single-family properties will be $548,250. That marks a 7.4% increase from last year’s limit of $510,400. The FHFA’s loan limits define the maximum amount that Fannie and Freddie can finance for a one-unit single-family home.
Whether you live in the ‘flatlands’ or on a hillside or in a canyon, water can cause significant damage to our homes. On the flatlands, water can gather on your roof or in your yard, which if not monitored, can result in costly repairs to your roof and interior. On the hillsides or in the canyons, homeowners need to be vigilant from storm run-off that come cascading down the ground above you, and even intrude on your home from adjacent properties. The tragedy occurring in Montecito mudslides two years ago where 23 lives were lost, and 130 homes destroyed is a terrible reminder of what could happen.
As aforementioned, we have a shortage of inventory, and one of the results of that is multiple offers, however, when some buyers are “taking the holiday’s off”, there is less competition for that home you are longing to own, and also with people both decorating their homes for the holidays and also staying home, you can see how they live in the house, and get ideas as to how you can live there. Also, with the coming of a vaccine, the market will most likely open and the interest rates will increase some.
One of the things I love about working with Coldwell Banker, is its need and philosophy of giving back.
As I have mentioned from time to time, there is a proposal for the construction of the Berggruen Institute on the last 447 undeveloped acres om the area adjacent to Mountaingate. There is a lot of community opposition to this project, and have a law suit has been filed against the project by the Master Association of Mountaingate (MOSA). They won the first round in the court, but the legal battles are just beginning. There is a virtual public hearing on the proposed EIR study to be done between the dates of Nov 20 and the 21st of December scheduled for the 8th of December at 5:30 pm. I invite you to participate in this hearing by logging on http://www.joinwebinar.com/ and entering webinar ID 772-772-955 and your email address.
It will be vastly different celebrating the holidays this year, be it Chanukah, Christmas or Kwanzaa but even with all of the losses we have sustained this year, I for one am grateful for my family, friends, colleagues, and clients and the support and love we share. For Thanksgiving with Covid prohibiting my family and I getting together for the holiday, we had a Zoom call with participants in Vancouver, BC, Montreal, Alaska, Orange County in California, and myself in my house in Bel Air Crest. It was great fun, we even played a game and decided to do this every week or two and have plans for our next holiday celebration as well.
Analysts from Goldman Sachs are predicting that economic growth will rebound more strongly than expected in the second quarter of 2021, despite projected GDP losses in the fourth quarter of 2020 and first quarter of 2021 caused by a resurgence of the virus in the United States and Europe.
In their November 5 meeting, the Federal Reserve stated it is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In the five communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City, and Brentwood, median sales prices were up by stronger margins than last month with Brentwood holding even with last year through October (no change). Beverly Hills led the way in median sales price increases with a 12% gain over last year, with an MSP of $6.475 million. The Westwood/Century City MSP was up 10% over last year at $2.411 million; Beverly Hills Post Office was up 5% at $3.000 million; and Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was next at $2.331, up 4%. Pacific Palisades, one of the communities I also cover, was up 10% over 2019 at $3.345 million.
Sales have been a mixed bag for 2020…volumes have hovered below last year’s record sales from 6% to 10% each month compared to what we saw for the first 10 months in 2019. In analyzing the data from 2019, there were block-buster sales that pushed these five communities to new sales records, but we have now turned the corner for high-end sales (see below).
This is according to new data from the National Association of Realtors’ 2020 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, a yearly report which discusses demographics, preferences and experiences of buyers and sellers across America.
The pandemic is revving up the market for expensive homes where many people are spending far more time, luring wealthy buyers, and nudging more sales over the half-million-dollar mark from Northern California to the New York City suburbs.
According to the National Association of Realtors, homes are selling much quicker than they did a year ago, and sales of resort and second homes are no different. In September, 68% of vacation homes sold in less than a month, according to the Realtors’ Confidence Index Survey.
A new law will enable individuals, non-profits, and governments a chance to buy foreclosed homes before investors can scoop them up.
Thanksgiving is a little more than a week away, and while it might be difficult to think of giving thanks given the year we have been experiencing, it is important for us to stop and take stock of all that we have.
I am also grateful to those of you who participated in my Halloween contest. Seeing the entries was fun. Be on the lookout for my next contest which will be launched in the next week or so.
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