Timely Real Estate News…………………….15 August 2018
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Sales improve but prices mixed thru 2018
The good news for July is that nationally and regionally sales improved from being down 10% 
in June to only 5% down in July 2018. That may not seem to set the world on fire, but we’ve been languishing behind our sales performance for 2018 compared to a year ago. Why is that? It’s because we have a continued lack of quality inventory that has historically been in high demand. Demand is still here.
For the January-July period, median sales prices are up in the three of the five communities I cover each month — Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 11% through the first half of this year, Westwood/Century City was up 12%, and Brentwood was up 4% through July. Beverly Hills, our leader in pricing and sales, was down 7% and Beverly Hills Post Office was down 9%. This isn’t the end of their worlds for sure, but every month it’s been our history to have some areas up, some down. One of the key communities that I also cover is Malibu, where the median sales price was down only 1% through July 31. Again, as always, these stats are from the Multiple Listing Service only… Private sales are not included. Also, one large sale in an area will always skew the numbers. A measure that more buyers are using today than they have in the past is cost per square foot (in the past that generally was used more by appraisers, but now I am hearing it from a good number of buyers as well). In a report I received from my title company dated the 6th of August of this year, they broke down the cost per square foot in most of the areas I report on monthly. This report with the exception of portions of Bel Air which includes Moraga, Moraga Estates and Lower Casiano (average sales price per square foot was $657.00) and Brentwood East of Brentwood Circle ($1,416 average sales price) reflected more than one sale whereas the others were for just one sale in the month of June, Bel Air Crest – $633.00, and Mountaingate – $548.00. Please remember this report reflects just one months’ sales and not the entire year, and again is all sales not just those that went through the MLS.
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Volume up to $2.093 billion
Sales volume for July 2018 was $2.093 billion versus $2.214 billion for the same period in 2017. In looking at the sales for each community, the biggest loser was Beverly Hills, down more than $135 million in sales volume through July compared to first six months of 2017. BHPO was down $50 million, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was essentially even with the year before through July. And Westwood/Century City was down $10 million vs. 2017. Brentwood’s sales volume through July was up $8.6 million. Malibu sales volume was off $82 million compared to a year ago at this time.
July was actually a good month for median sales prices when comparing 2018 to July 2017. For example, Beverly Hills’s median sales price for last month was up 25% to $6.024 million over July 2017. Beverly Hills Post Office was 8% at $2.425 million. Westwood/Century City was up 18% at $2.005 million, and Brentwood was up 21% at $2.780 million. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was down 7% to $1.750 million and Malibu was down 26% from last July to $2.280 million.
What we are seeing in total sales volume is a gradual claw-back to levels of last year. We have the buyers — they’re here. The challenge is finding properties that meet their tastes, and 10 years ago, in our ‘boom years’, we had a lot of inventory as people were moving up or out. Not so much today, because while I am seeing strong showings at open houses, we’re not getting the number of homes to meet buyer demand. Affordability is generally not the problem on the Westside. Could that change as interest rates increase? Most likely. The equation is also changing in that inventory is increasing, slightly but increasing none the less. Also, as a general rule with the LA Schools starting this week, families took the month of August to take their vacations, etc. and the oppressive heat we experienced for the last month did not help in the sales volume dept. On the other side of the coin, we experienced about 2 times the number of multiple offers in my office in the last few weeks.
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Rental amounts remain steady in Los Angeles
When everything is going up these days in real estate, we got a surprise: Rents are essentially remaining steady in Los Angeles. The median price of a one-bedroom apartment in Los Angeles was $1,360 in July.
That’s right where prices stood a month ago—and a month before that. Two-bedroom prices have also remained at $1,750. Over the past year, rents have risen just 1.3%, slightly above the national average (1.2%), but under the average gain of 1.8% across all of California. And after facing years of escalating prices, LA renters are getting something of a reprieve in 2018, as prices have more or less flatlined.
That doesn’t mean rents here are affordable. Nationwide, the median price for a two-bedroom apartment is $1,180, nearly 33% below the LA price. But it must be pointed out, that these rent stats are based on U.S Census data and do not necessarily reflect what’s happening in your neighborhood. In upscale areas, a two bedroom will go for $2,500 or more and one bedrooms are renting for $1,750. Also, please remember these numbers reflect apartment lease amounts, not condos which always tend to be more expensive.
According to USC Lusk Center, rent growth in LA may have slowed in response to new housing construction and the ability of some renters to buy rather than continue leasing property.
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Mortgage applications volume fell 17% in last year
One of the key statistics we watch to determine the strength of the real estate market is ‘mortgage applications’ — predicting future completed sales that must start with an application to finance the purchase.
Total mortgage application volume fell 17% from a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted report. And the applications fell 3% just in the past week.
The market has been especially tough on new homebuyers, with data showing a downward trend in purchase volume. Applications to purchase a home fell 2% for the week, and were also down 2% from a year ago. Soaring prices are sapping mortgage demand. In June, home prices rose 6.8% from a year ago, according to a report from CoreLogic.
“Despite recent data indicating a strong U.S. economy and job market, including signs of wage growth, overall mortgage applications fell for the third straight week as housing continues to be hampered by the lack of homes for sale and crimped affordability,” said Joel Kan, vice president of economic and industry forecasting for the Mortgage Bankers Association. The projection is for at least 1 more interest rate increase this year, perhaps as soon as next month.
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Inflation, tariffs, slow wage growth affect CA economy
Yes, we’re the world’s fifth largest economy, only making us more vulnerable to the vagaries to global economic trends and challenges. With inflation on the rise, slow growth in wages, and looming tariffs, consumers are going to be facing some challenges in the future as we start feeling the effects of higher fuel prices, raw materials and a possible range of tariffs across many industries.
The consumer price index, the government’s primary measure of inflation, rose 2.9% in June from a year earlier, the fastest increase in six years. Starbucks said in June that it had raised the price of a regular drip coffee, and McDonald’ssaid it raised prices when it reported its latest sales figures.
The Federal Reserve, which tries to keep inflation at or slightly above2%, has been raising interest rates to make sure that price pressures don’t get out of hand. Though President Donald Trump has criticized the central bank for raising rates, economists expect increases again in September and perhaps December.
However, U.S. wholesale prices went unchanged in July after two months of large increases, a sign that inflation pressures may have softened. This could affect Fed increases. Procter & Gamble, one of the biggest makers of consumer products, had said last week that Pampers prices will increase by an average of 4% in North America, while the Bounty, Charmin and Puffs brands could show increases. Gas prices have already surged more than 24% in the past year.
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What to look for in an agent when buying or selling your home
After more than 30 years of high-level real estate sales in West Los Angeles, I’m asked by friends and associates — what are the key attributes you believe a real estate agent should have? I am passing on these ‘pieces of advice’ as I would to anyone looking to pick a top agent to guide them through the purchase or sale of one of the most important decisions in their lives.
Here are 10, easy-to-remember guideposts in selecting your real estate agent.
1) The agent most be responsive — 24/7. All the time
2) Has experience in your price range. Don’t pick someone who is over their head from the start;
3) Must be pro-active. In this competitive market, you need an assertive, and pleasingly aggressive agent to assure you get in the transaction.
4) Avoid a family friend or relative. This can be a disaster and toxic as these relationships can put a strain on negotiations and deal-making as well as the relationship itself.
5) Must have a flexible schedule. In these times when the market is sometimes crazy, you have to have someone who can adjust their world to meet yours.
6) Have market and industry knowledge — this is key. They must be an expert in finding properties and helping clients through the entire buying & selling process.
7) Know the community. It’s not enough to just know about the real estate — you need someone who truly understands the community and what it offers in shopping, schools, dining, and culture.
8) Rely on an agent who respects your financial limitations and condition. Have an agent who will protect you at all times in all situations. Don’t overpay or under sell.
9) Agent must have a sophisticated web presence, know social media and have solid testimonials online. Your agent should also have a good relationship within the brokerage community. They will be working hand and hand with their fellow agents.
10) They know your needs and desires and know how to meet them. Chemistry is important. Trusting your agent is imperative.
If you haven’t already done so, check me out. I know I provide this high level of service and requirements. At your service.
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Sitting on a bunch of equity? You’re not alone.
Americans, and Californians in particular, are sitting a pot full of equity. Strong home price appreciation has handed Americans more than $5.8 trillion of equity they could be tapping into and at this point, more than double the level in 2011, according to data provider Black Knight Inc. At least part of that reluctance stems from rising interest rates, which means debt 
with adjustable rates will keep growing more expensive. It also stems from the history that a number of longer term home owners remember how many people used their homes as ATM machines and ended up “under water or upside down” when the value of their homes went down and they owed more on their homes than it was worth, thus the short sales we experienced for a number of years.
Last decade’s mortgage crisis in 2007-09 has probably made consumers hesitant. Home prices fell 35% after the bubble burst, and as much as 75% in California, leaving many borrowers owing more than their houses were worth. People who tapped their equity to pay off their credit cards ended up struggling to meet their obligations.
The banking industry is now encouraging homeowners to take a little more risk.
Banks are finding success with their new marketing initiatives. They have the money, and they are eager to put their bank’s money to work…doesn’t earn them anything sitting on their books. And they are much more confident about the real estate market than 11 years ago when the whole industry collapsed because of horrendously bad loaning
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Speakers Corner
Selling real estate is not only financially rewarding, but is emotionally rewarding as well. As I have mentioned before, it is wonderful to meet and get to know new people all the time, getting involved in their worlds for however long the buying and/or selling relationship lasts, only to last way beyond that time. I have become friends with so many of my clients through the years. There is not an occasion when I meet someone when I am not asked “how is the business, what is happening in the market”. Seems everyone wants to know what is happening.
My listing at 12547 Promontory in Mountaingate has been reduced to $2,390,000 which has induced increased interest in the house. If you know someone, even yourself who may be interested in this lovely 5/4.5-bedroom home with golf course views, good sized yard and very close to the community pool, please let me know. Don’t forget my listing of the great home in the Tarzana hills.
I also have a listing of a 3/2.5, plus den with spa coming up in Bel Air Crest. We are doing some work on the house and will be launching it for sale in a few weeks. A few leases in Bel Air Crest are coming up soon as well.
Of note.. my new email address is ceschiffer@gmail.com… Please change your data base. Speaking of which, I am in the process of cleaning mine up and as soon as it is done in the next week, you will be able to connect with me through my app… Carole Schiffer. You will be receiving a notice when it is up and running.
I invite you to visit my web site comwww.caroleschiffer.com, my Facebook page http://www.facebook.com/CaroleSchifferRealtor, my LinkedIn page http://www.linkedin.com/in/caroleschiffer and @caroleschifferrealtor on Instagram
In the meantime, please let me know how I can serve your real estate needs and stay cool as we ride out the rest of this hot summer.
CalBRE 00677619
©2018 Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC. Coldwell Banker is a registered trademark licensed to Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC 234567An Equal Opportunity Company. Equal Housing Opportunity. Owned and Operated by NRT LLC.
Here’s the bad news — sales plunged over the same time period, indicating sky-high housing costs could be burning out many home shoppers. The six-county median — the point at which half the homes sold for more and half for less — hit $536,250, real estate data firm CoreLogic stated last week. That’s up $6,250 from the previous record high, reached in May.
Freddie Mac. In June, when accounting for the rise in mortgage payments over the year, payments on a median-price home rose more than twice as quickly as the median price, LePage said.
and demand” is playing out as inventory drops but demand for luxury housing just doesn’t stop. The median sales price for a single-family luxury home grew 5.3% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, to $10 million, according to the recent published report. What constitutes a “luxury” home you might ask, any home with a sale price in the upper 10% of all the listings in that particular market, which as you can imagine varies from market to market.
that means inflated home values, already bursting at the seams. So, if a booming economy is going to be positive, it has to also stimulate home building, increasing inventories, and affordability. Affordability, especially for the largest home-buying generation in America — the Millennials, is their biggest challenge.
Why is it that the largest generation in U.S. history isn’t participating in real estate as heavily as its predecessors? There are many difficulties standing in their way according to new research.
I will be covering this recycling story in the next Schiffer Line also. It’s an important topic us to pay attention to make sure we are doing it right. Also, please do not forget about the safe recycling center on the UCLA campus. Their address is 550 Charles E Young Drive, West (just up the street from the UCLA Hospital). Their hours are Thursday & Friday 8-2 for Hazardous Waste ONLY, and on Sat from 9-3 for both Hazardous and Electric Waste. It is such a feel-good thing to do and quite easy!
anywhere, it was always about the food, the people who made the food, and the impact the food had on him and all of us. His musical background was/is also something that made him a very special person. What most people don’t know is the before food there was music. A lot of music. An accomplished cellist and conductor, Jonathan Gold offered up two wildly different personalities — loving classical and heavy metal. He was a celebrity… as a friend described whims a “combo of Falstaff and Custer.” He was credited, or blamed, for inventing the term “gangsta rap”. Jonathan Gold won the Pulitzer Prize while working as the Los Angeles Times restaurant critic. Although he appreciated and wrote beautifully about fine dining, he revered the taco truck more than the tasting menu.
While I must admit the heat takes some of my “stuffing out”, I continue to be busy working in this crazy business called Real Estate. I love it because it is always different. Everyone has a story and being a “people person” it is fun to meet and get to know different people all of the time.
are both waiting for their new owners to come and claim them and to make them theirs. Promontory is open almost every Sunday, so if you have yet to see it, please stop. Coming up soon are two Canyon homes for sale in Bel Air Crest, and a lease or two as well. Also, keep your eyes peeled for my new free app.. Carole Schiffer. It should be up and running in about a week or two and you will be able to get a ton of informatioon real estate, inventory, etc. I am very excited about it and hope you will enjoy using it.
Office, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, Westwood/Century City, and Brentwood) were up over 24% to $1.952 billion for the year…a nice number. A year later, however, we’re down nearly 10% from that number at $1.764 billion in total sales, which just underscores the current market in our communities: We have buyers, but we don’t have the broad selection of quality homes we are used to being offered in one of America’s most treasured real estate markets.
There have been 80 closed sales of $10-plus million this year, versus 94 at this time last year, down15% and we have seen only 24 sales of $20-plus million this year, versus 32 at this time last year, down 25%. Of these, 13 were sales of $30 million this year, versus 15 at this time last year. We are ahead of last year in 40 plus million-dollar sales. Only five last year and seven so far this year.
reflect the trend line for these communities for the calendar year…from January 1 onward. Beverly Hills, which had a great June, is now at $6.355 million median sales price through the first six months of 2018. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills is up 10% at $2.382 million, Westwood/Century City is up 11% ate $2.275 million, and Culver City was up an impressive 31% for the first six months of the year at $1.320 million. Brentwood was even for the year at $2.196 million and Beverly Hills Post Office was down 11% at $2.619 million. Also, once again a particularly high or low sale will skew these numbers.
The nation’s housing inventory increased 12.2% in the second quarter, the biggest gain since early 2015…. but housing supplies were still down 5.3% from a year ago, a dynamic that has continued to push up prices. That is less than the double-digit annual declines that had prevailed since the second quarter of 2017 and the smallest drop since early 2017. Thirty of the nation’s 100 largest metro areas saw their housing supplies increase on an annual basis last quarter. That’s up from just 13 early in the year and represents the largest share of big cities with rising inventories in more than three years.
Francisco earthquake and the 1994 Northridge quake, we have been especially sensitive to monitoring building safety codes. Just last month, I reported the coming study that the diagnostic processes and data used to evaluate the safety of tall buildings was undergoing radical assessment. The news thus far appears to state that the outcome of this report would not be ‘good news.’
jobs were reported lost in the rental and leasing services sector. The best news is that an increase in construction jobs could also foreshadow a positive trend for the real estate industry, according to Mark Fleming, the chief economist of First American.
Yes, it seems Spring Cleaning season is over, and now it’s time for home improvement…and that’s why you’re seeing all these ads from various business promoting this theme. Summer and sunshine spawn positive attitudes, especially about your home and ‘your next project.”
to see what other homeowners have had to say…trust me, there is a lot of sand-bagging going on, both positive and negative…so my advice — actually talk to a reference. I would even take it a step further and go see the project they worked on. #3 – Do a “gut” check. Yes, face-to-face meetings are important — look them in the eye, scan their appearance and their “on-time” performance. Do they return your phone calls, keep appointments? #4 – Pay with a Paper Trail. Never pay cash. Have legitimate, understandable invoices. If you pay for supplies, make sure you store them in your home. Do not make upfront payments but pay your bills on time. and #5 — Keep Written Records of Everything. Get it in writing. Make copies of licenses and insurance/bonds. Keep your estimates and any change orders…make sure they give you a change order in writing, too.
perhaps as far off as next year. I love hearing from all of you and look forward to working with you so that when the time comes we are ready to “rock & roll”. Please keep those calls and thoughts coming. Currently we are still marketing my lovely home in Mountaingate at 12547 Promontory for $2,450,000. I will be there for the next two Sundays and look forward to seeing any of you who decide to stop by and say hello. I have a few homes coming up for sale and lease, so please watch for them on my web site. Caroleschiffer.com
As we all know, Los Angeles was hit with a record setting heat wave the week of the 4th of July, which caused a good amount of plant damage. They are predicting that we may experience two more heat waves this summer, so we all need to be prepared. Dead head (or remove) any and all totally brown leaves or buds from your plants and keep them well watered. Leaf drop is said to be healthy as the trees are shedding their dead growth to make room for new growth.
price for May was $5.625 million, down 13% from a year ago. Beverly Hills Post Office, however, was up 35%, at $4 million. Westwood/Century City was up 10% at $2.330 million for May, but Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was down 32% to $2.527 million…Brentwood was also down 12% at $3.163 million…and Marina del Rey was off 6% at $1.021 million.
The “villain” in this fire, which covered 35 + acres, was a “Weed Wacker” that ignited the blaze, which quickly ran up the hillside, threatening nearby homes and neighborhoods. Los Angeles fire officials urge us to use licensed contractors who follow safety rules – such as avoiding metal blades and carrying fire extinguishers. The irony of this is that the “Weed Wacker” was being used to clear brush
the key items with you: First aid kit, Clothing – blanket(s), jacket, comfortable walking shoes, gloves & extra socks, Tools – batteries, flashlight(s) radio, tarp, Specialty Items – whistle, insurance papers, important phone numbers, CASH, Food – canned food &juice with an opener, plastic utensils and cups. For a complete list and more information, please go to
As expected, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark short-term interest rate but it also upgraded its forecast from a total of three hikes this year to four amid an improving economy, falling unemployment rates and slightly stronger inflation. The move is expected to cascade through the economy, in particular nudging up rates for variable-rate consumer loans such as credit cards and adjustable-rate mortgages.
In perhaps a telling sign, the Fed removed its previous assertion that its key rate “is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run.” That suggests the Fed could push up rates more rapidly. Powell, however, said it simply means rates are getting closer to normal levels.
This is your chance to “leave” California as you know it. Placed on the November ballot is another proposal to split California into ‘like-minded areas that would become official if voters approve and the State Legislature (both houses) approve it, essentially putting them out of a job. Then Congress has to approve it as well. Let’s forget the sure-to-come lawsuits that will spring forth if it somehow passes.
the debate rages around the legality of the whole initiative process, and there is no assurance of the outcome with respect to who would end up in power in each of the newly created states. Critics cite the aversion of seated politicians risking their place in the state legislature or Congress to approve their job elimination under such a plan.
According to a national report from “Make Lemonade”, there are more than 44 million borrowers who collectively owe $1.5 trillion in student loan debt in the U.S. alone. The average student in the Class of 2016 has $37,172 in student loan debt. This is crimping mostly the lifestyle and home-purchasing desires of millennials, the largest single home-buying group in the U.S. today.
29-year-old women decreased in counties with the fastest home-price appreciation. On average, a 10 %-point rise in home values correlates with a 1.5 %-point drop in birth rates.
The inventory woes definitely impact my business. I have about 10- 15 buyers, some with more specific needs or requirements than others, and it is very difficult to find available properties for them to purchase (both listed and privately available). I have written to a number of you asking if you are considering selling your properties, with a very low response. Once again, if you are at all considering selling your property, please let me know as it might work for one of my clients.
five cities I report on didn’t move the needle. For the cities of Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air/Holmby Hills, and Brentwood, sales volume through the first four months of 2018 were statistically even…$1.092 billion through April 2018 vs. $1.093 billion through April 2017. For Santa Monica, one of my key communities also, was down 34% in sales volume to $156 million.
this time. Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was up 44% to $2.775 million over 2017, and Westwood/Century City was up 8% to$2.285 million. Beverly Hills Post Office was down 15% at $2.391 million, and Brentwood was down 16% $2.995 million. Santa Monica’s median sales prices were up 34% to $3.085 million.
months of any year reflect both economic transitions and market conditions. We have seen the market According to Market Watch, Fed notes indicate there could be two more rate increases this year, and the low unemployment rate of 3.9% doesn’t appear to be stoking inflation worries, even if it overshoots its 2% goal. One also needs to be very careful in just looking at the low unemployment numbers. There are a lot of people out there whose benefits have run out as well as some people who are not even trying to find work. These need to be factored into the low unemployment numbers. The good news out of the Fed is that wages are expected to grow, even though we haven’t seen much wage growth since January.
2018 when compared to April 2017. Beverly Hills was down 34% in MSP, Beverly Hills Post Office was down 60% compared to April 2017, Westwood/Century City was down 20%, and Brentwood was also down 25%. Only Bel-Air/Holmby Hills was us an impressive 111% when comparing April 2018 to April 2017. Santa Monica’s median sales price for April was 69% higher than last year at this time.
expensive market, California has become the first state in the nation to mandate solar panels for all newly constructed homes. In a unanimous 5-0 vote last week, the California Energy Commission approved the policy. Experts ae saying the inclusion of these solar panels could cause an increase of $10,000 to construction costs for a single-family home. On the flip side, the commission says, the panels could yield much more in energy savings. For residential homeowners, based on a 30-year mortgage, the Energy Commission estimates that the standards will add about $40 to an average monthly payment, but save consumers $80 on monthly heating, cooling, and lighting bills.
Even so, what this has brought to our state — according to the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, is that “we welcome immigrants and diversity, while reducing greenhouse emissions. And in spite of the roadblocks government puts in the path of developers, California is an “attractive state for talent, innovation, and entrepreneurship.” Somehow, you just don’t feel it when stuck on the 405.
food, making lists, calendar reminders…. voice-controlled lighting and increased safety through connectivity apps.
32% in 2013, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
has gone up by more than 60% in just 10 years.
We have reduced my lovely listing at 12547 Promontory in Mountaingate by $90,000 to $2,450,000…and are having a great deal of activity and hope to have it in escrow very soon. My clients are ready to move to their new home. Right after the first of the month, I will be bringing out a great, single story home in the hills in Tarzana. It is 5 bedrooms, good sized yard, and a real swimmers pool. The price will be $1,825,000 and I am in the process of looking for a new home for them. There are also some leases in Bel Air Crest coming up soon.
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