Timely Real EstateNews………………………………………………… 15 May 2011
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There’s some ‘spring’ in these real estate shoes….things are picking up!
I kept telling myself to be patient….Westside real estate is on its way back and is going to keep improving. We’re headed in the right direction. Well, April numbers confirmed it: We are making progress in all of the four communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air, and Brentwood. Each of the communities — for the first time this year — showed gains in April 2011 over the previous March 2011. And while these gains range from modest to extraordinary, what is even more impressive is that we are now closing in on matching our year-to-date sales volume with last year. In these four communities, the year-to-date sales volume is now just 10% behind 2010 levels for the first four months, whereas last month, we were 24% behind as of the end of March 2011. The strengthening in the market is remarkable for several reasons: 1) We started out slow in the first two months of 2011 when compared to the previous two months in 2010 — for example, last year there were 56 homes sold in the $5 million plus range in these the first two months of 2010 vs. only 37 homes over $5 million in 2011. 2) In 2010, there were 18 homes that sold over $10 million, vs. only 11 in this price range this year; but we did have one home over $20 million that sold in 2010 vs. two homes in the $20 million category in 2011. So, what we are seeing is a strengthening in the market as we move farther into 2011 — as our sales volume continues to play catch up with robust #s for 2010 which were driven by high number, luxury home sales in the first two months of 2010. This is just the nature of our market – luxury homes that come and go on the market that dramatically affect the average monthly statistics.
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The on-going Yin & Yang of our market continues
As evidenced not only by the stats from the previous article, but the stats from the multiple listing for April as well, the market was a bit healthier for the first quarter than it is currently. We are continuing to see softness in the prices of homes as well as some activity. According to an article in the Los Angeles Times on Friday, May 13, prices are down 1.8% from 2010. The typical spring selling/buying time has not yet caught on fire, yet I can also tell you that open house activity is up which means the buyers are out there. However, unless they have a compelling reason for making an offer (amazing property properly priced), they are sitting on the sidelines waiting it out. The monthly stats released by the local MLS on the 7th of each month shows that April 2011 was a strong month for all communities. What is important to understand, however, is that the stats you are seeing reflect sales that took place in the last 30 – 90 days (their escrows did close, however, in April 2011). Beverly Hills’s April 2011 median sales price was ahead of March 2011 by 13%; Beverly Hills Post Office was 50% ahead of March 2011; and Bel-Air showed a whopping 96% increase of the previous period; and Brentwood was 19% ahead of March 2011. These numbers, of course, translated into overall year-to-date median sales prices as well — Beverly Hills Post Office is up 23% YTD over 2010; Bel-Air is up 3%; and Brentwood is up 12%. Only Beverly Hills is lagging behind (down 10%) for year-to-date median sale price because of the large number of homes over $5 million in the first two months of 2010, which brings down its MSP. When comparing year-to-year MSP for the four communities I report on, you find that Beverly Hills is down only 6% for April 2011 vs. April 2010; Beverly Hills Post Office is ahead 79% for the same period; Bel-Air is up 37% over the previous 2010 period; and Brentwood is making a strong comeback now — up 49% over the previous April 2010. Surely by now — if you’re a regular reader of The SchifferLine — you recognize that we’re going to have these ups/downs for months throughout the year when you have the impact of $10 million and $20 million homes selling in your community. But that’s good news, too. The richness we have in our four communities of beautiful homes speaks volumes of why we live in one of the most desirable areas of the country, if not the world.
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Test your Westside IQ…..and win $100 gift certificate to Trader Joe’s
Due to popular demand, I extending the deadline for you to enter this fun (I hope) contest) So you think you know the neighborhood? We’re going to give you a very simple test — and all you have to do is answer a few simple questions:
1. What year was the Santa Monica Pier built?
2. When was Will Rogers State Park created?
3. Who was the architect for the original Getty Villa?
4. Who was the first mayor of Beverly Hills?
5. What is the name of the movie that was based on the Malibu pier?
6. Who was the original developer of Bel-Air?
7. When was the University of California at Los Angeles current campus created?
8. What iconic building was used as one of the main sets in the classic movie,” Chinatown”?
9. Name two world-famous artists who live in Venice.
10. Name two honorary mayors of Brentwood.
You can find the answers on my web site, caroleschiffer.com. They are in the section describing each area. For example, the question about the Venice artists is in the section about Venice.
All answers need to be sent via email, to: carole@caroleschiffer.com. Submit your answers to me by May 30, and if there are ties, I will randomly draw the winner who will receive a $100 gift certificate to Trader Joe’s or Whole Foods (your choice). Good Luck and Have fun!
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A word about foreclosures….and their place in our ‘sun’
Much is being written these days — you can’t hide from it — about the looming impact of foreclosures on home prices. Yes, we have seen it here, and we will continue to deal with this condition for some time. It has been reported that 28% of the homes in the US are ‘under water’ — meaning they owe more than the home is worth. But we are also seeing that foreclosures are slowing down — the pace has greatly decreased — in part because the banks/lenders are much more cautious about “how” they institute foreclosure process on homeowners. If there is any good news in this arena it is that foreclosure rate is slowing down which should help all of us in terms of our home equity and values as our market strengthens. It’s important to understand that even though you may read bad news about what is happening in some area of the country, even nearby, does not necessarily mean it is happening in our Westside communities.
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Understanding the economy and labor #s….it’s a mixed bag
First of all, I don’t pretend to be an economist, and secondly, I defer to our financial consultants who serve Coldwell Banker on many fronts. John Ciolino, a long-time associate and senior executive with First Capital, reports that “the labor market and the economy saw their own mixed blessings last week — when three different employment reports were released.” According to John, the Jobs Report showed that 244,000 jobs were created in April, 2011, which was far above “all expectations”….and it was the biggest private job increase since 2006.” And yet, in the very same week, we see that while jobs picked up, we also saw an increase in the unemployment rate go from 8.8% to 9.0%. Why was that? Well, John points out these reports are based on very different databases that have something to do with the Household Survey, and tend to cause confusion when trying to compare the jobless rate with new jobs. He goes onto state that this disparity between recent-record new jobs and increased unemployment stats demonstrates that the jobs “being created simply aren’t enough to have yet made a significant dent in the number of jobless Americans.” Another words, these are not “apple to apple comparisons” and should not be seen or viewed as such. At the end of the day, however, John said that while there is mixed news, the “overall positive tone does validate that the labor market is gradually improving, and….as it improves, so will the economy and housing.” The good news, he reports, is that “home loans recently reached some of the best levels so far in 2011.”
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Birds do it, bees do it…..let’s fall in love. Birds bring 405 to halt….well, almost
For those of you who live in Bel Air Crest, and are wondering why the construction that was to begin at our front entrance about 4 -5 weeks ago is on hold…. The 405/Sepulveda construction project, which knows no stone, rock or mountain it can’t move (or destroy)…has finally found its match. Families of birds have been nesting in the trees for weeks at the entrance to Bel Air Crest. Several families have recently welcomed newly born chicks….and according to California law, the trees cannot be touched or disturbed until the chicks have left the nest! So, the word is out — “No construction until the chicks have left the nest!” From what I hear, we are on hold for a few more weeks.
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Parents are moving….moving in with the kids.
A national phenomenon in these times. According to recent survey by a family history professor out of Olympia, WA, the number of parents moving in with their children is beginning to take hold. According to a report just released by the U.S. Census Bureau last week, the number of parents, siblings, and other relatives who live with adult heads of households grew 42% from 2000 to 2007. Leading the way? Parents, up 67%, to 3.5 million; The figures suggest it isn’t only elderly parents moving in — the number of parents under 65 in these households increased by 75%, and those 65 and older grew by 62%. “This is a major trend,” says Stephanie Cooetz, a family history professor at Evergreen State College. She directs research at the Council on Contemporary Families. She indicates that there are a host of factors — higher housing costs and the nation’s struggling economy. And, another factor — intergenerational households are more common among the country’s growing number of immigrants.
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New Baseline Hillside Ordinance goes into effect May 9 2011
If you live north of Sunset in West Los Angeles, this new ordinance applies to you and your property. Essentially, what this ordinance covers are newly created hillside regulations established for single-family zones for R1, RS, RE, or RA. Any project submitted prior to and approved by May 9 will be considered to be a Vested Development Plan, meaning that the applicable regulations in place prior to this change will continue to apply. (There are some limitations to this proviso — so please check with the building department.) The Department of City Planning is in the process of preparing a comprehensive, user-friendly guide. For more specific information and details on both of these important issues go to: City of Los Angeles’s online Municipal Code for more details http://www.amlegal.com/nxt/gateway.dll?f=templates&fn=default.htm&vid=amlegal:lamc_ca. As a part of the Baseline Hillside ordinance, the city is also working on a New Retaining Wall ordinance — it’s in the planning stages. It will be compatible with the already-approved Baseline Hillside Ordinance. If you want to get your two cents in on this new ordinance, you can be added to their “Add Me to Retaining Wall Interest List” list by contacting David Olivo from our Code Simplification Unit at david.olivo@lacity.org
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Commencement Day 2011 at USC
So many of you have followed the woes and joys of my niece Morgan during her years at USC, well, believe it or not, Friday the 13th was her commencement! The four years have flown by. It was with a great deal of pride and joy that I along with her parents, brother and Grandmother watched her not only receive her diploma but her medal for being a member of the Honors program (called Thematic Options at SC)! I cannot tell you how proud I am of her growth and development over these past four years. So what is in her future? She is still short of a few credits and has decided to have an exciting new adventure. In July she heads to Queensland College in Brisbane Australia for a 4 month stint to complete her required courses, and then upon her return to Vancouver, she will work for a bit before she begins Dental School at the University of British Columbia in September 2012. I shall miss having her here, but we have made a pledge to continue to enjoy the closeness of the relationship we have developed over the past 4 years. One of my graduation presents to Morgan……a membership in the SC Alumni Association (gee that was hard for me to do!).
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Green glue
The types of glue we use and their impact on the environment probably isn’t up all that high on our going green checklists, but I thought I’d delve into the world of adhesives commonly used around the home to see what’s what. After all, if there are some big environmental issues in our lives we aren’t ready to tackle, there are probably lots of little ones where we can make headway in the meantime!
What is in glue?
The composition of glue varies widely according to application, but these days for anything more heavy duty than gluing paper for kids craft projects and paper mache, they are often based on petrochemical products, meaning they have their roots in crude oil. Some of the compounds used are polyvinyl acetate (PVA), epoxy, polyurethane and cyanoacrylate polymers. Aside the crude oil link, these substances have their own additional environmental impact.
Additionally, the substances are often dissolved in a solvent. As the solvent evaporates during the drying process, it can generate volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which may include greenhouse gases, ozone depleting substances, chemicals involved in the creation of smog and other gases hazardous to human health.
Environmentally friendly glue
I think the important thing to bear in mind with “green” glue products, also known as bioadhesives, is to not expect a product so non-toxic you could eat it (although some do exist); rather something that has less impact than mainstream products.
Home made glue
If you want to know exactly what is in the glue you use; you can make your own. You can always use the kindergarten teacher’s favorite – flour and water; but that’s not going to cut it for jobs such as mending frames or gluing fabric.
Commercial “green” glue
I wasn’t able to find recipes for metal plastics glue and not everyone has the time or inclination to make their own glue, so it’s good to see commercial bioadhesive products now available. I’m not going to recommend any specific products as I haven’t used any as yet, but they can be easily found via your favorite search engine using search terms such as:green glue,earth friendly glue,eco glue,environmentally friendly glue.
Things to look for in an earth friendly glue include: Low or no VOC,petrochemical free, water based, and you might want to look for an MSDS (Material Safety Data Sheet) so you can determine what is actually in it.
A popular active component of eco glues is Amino Silane. According to MSDS information I was able to locate on it, it has the following properties:
Oral – Result: LD50 > 2,000 mg/kg. Remark: Very low order of toxicity.
Skin Absorption – Result: LD50 > 2,000 mg/kg. Remark: Very low order of toxicity.
Skin Direct contact – Result: Slight irritation.
Eye Direct contact – Result: Severe irritation. Remark: Causes corneal injury.
Inhalation – Result: LC50 Not acutely Toxic.
Exposure Limits – Not applicable.
Sensitization – No.
Reproductive Toxicity – No.
Mutagenicity – No. Teratogenicity – No
Synergistic Products – None.
Ecological Information – No known applicable information.
Hope this information “sticks” with you…
At the moment I have seven (7) listings; two canyon homes for sale in Bel Air Crest, one custom lot in Bel Air Crest, two homes for sale in Mountaingate, one home for lease in Mountaingate, and one home for sale in Malibu. They are all very easy to see, so please check them out on my web site.. caroleschiffer.com and let me know if you or anyone you know might be interested in seeing any of them or any other property.
