Timely Real Estate News………………………………………………….15 April 2009
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The Wild, Wild West (side) of Real Estate
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that nothing is predictable when it comes to Westside real estate. If you’ve been following the latest editions of The SchifferLine you are convinced that the more things change, the more they stay the same: Westside real estate has been on a roller coaster ride for the past three years.
Let me get the bad news out of the way first: Total sales volume for the first three months of 2009 compared to same period in 2008 in the communities of Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air, and Brentwood is down more than 52%. This translates to less activity in the entire real estate landscape which results in fewer transactions. Houses are sitting on an average of 99 days before they are sold for the first three months of this year — as high as 139 day average in Bel-Air and a low of 79 days in Beverly Hills Post Office. Average days on market for the four areas through January-February were just 90 days. There is also a caveat here, and that is in the last 3 weeks to a month, activity is way up… in some cases off the charts…. In the last month, I sold two of my listings in Bel Air Crest within 2 weeks of putting them on the market. Some of this activity is caused by the clients doing the right thing… by that I mean cleaning up the house and fixing what needed fixing, pricing it properly and choosing the right agent…. Me! Do we know how long this will last, NO…..but with interest rates where they are and the apparent confidence of the general public appearing to be getting better…it has made for some interesting times. I am hearing that this mood is not just limited to the Wild Westside… but all over, including but not limited to Orange County.
On the bright side, however, median sales prices in Beverly Hills Post Office and Bel-Air are both up substantially — BHPO median sales price year-to-date is up 43% and Bel-Air is up 17% for the first quarter (January-March 2009). The other two areas — Beverly Hills and Brentwood are both down — 24% in MSP year-to-date in BH and down 33% for Brentwood.
Beverly Hills Post Office ‘posted’ a major turnaround from January and February with a 235% increase from February to March sales. But the other three areas were down from February to March 2009 (Beverly Hills down 9%; Bel-Air down 21%; and Brentwood, down 53%).
Confusing numbers and facts!
I want to make this ‘perfectly clear’ — I rely on the Multiple Listing Service for all of my statistics that I carefully review each month for you. However, let me point out that many of the sales reported in each area are ‘trailing’ sales reports. A sale made in December 2008, for example, may not actually hit the MLS reports until February or March — hence, the “actual sales” for any one month may be a combination of several months. We don’t have a better system — and all other reporting agencies face the same analysis challenges I do.
To underscore the downturn in total sales volume, in Beverly Hills in March 2008, there were 24 sales between $2.1 and $16 million, while there were only 10 sales between $2.25 and $8 million in 2009. That is a huge difference in sales volume and average sales price. Beverly Hills Post Office had 12 sales with a high of $18 million in 2008, but only 10 sales between $2.5 and $7.3 million in March 2009.
Significantly, Bel-Air had 12 sales between $2 and $8.2 million in March 2008 and only 6 between $2 and $6.5 million in 2009, and Brentwood showed a marked increased of 14 sales between $2.6 and $7.8 million in March 2009 from 8 sales between $2.1 and $10.7 million in the same period of 2008.
Just how ‘wild’ is it going to get?
A rocket scientist I’m not….but we are seeing increased activity in my Coldwell Banker Brentwood Court office — open houses are flush with buyers and there is new energy in the air. Interest rates are improving, but as my friend John Ciolino (First Capital) said: “This is not a time to stay on the fence, hoping and waiting for lower rates. Home loan rates remain within inches of all-time historic lows, but may not necessarily move significantly lower based on this purchasing plan – waiting is a very risky move.”
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How well do you know your Architect contest?
I want to thank all of you who entered my Architect Contest? It was great fun reading the responses and meeting all of you online. The lucky winner is Ellen Doeren who lives in Mountaingate. She and her husband Bill will be receiving the $100 gift certificate to the Hotel Bel Air! Keep watching for my next contest, and hopefully you can participate and be the next lucky winner!
Latest Listings
As I mentioned I have been very busy, and have a number of new listings to account for my fatigue…
Bel Air Crest – 11730 Stonehenge – $7,800,000 a beautiful almost new home in a private setting with all the bells and whistles, 2371 Stratford – $4,995,000 – a great custom home with elevator, 2494 Devonport Lane – $2,099,000 – 4/3.5 Canyon home with a huge yard and room for a pool, 2505 Cardigan Court – $1,850,000 – 4/3 Canyon almost completely redone including a new roof, 2349 Brookshire Lane – $1,595,000 (sale) & $7,500 (lease) – 3/2.5 Canyon home with views. Mountaingate – 12540 Promontory Lane – $7,500 – 4/3.5 home with pool and koi pond, 2088 Ridge Point – $8,000 unfurnished, $8900 furnished – 4/4.0 home with big yard and views, 2208 The Terrace – $4,900 lease – 1/2 with sitting room –sexy home with views. Please let me know if you would like to see any of these fabulous properties!
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Help save trees with Used Cardboard Boxes
Cardboard and our environment
Cardboard boxes are everywhere we turn and according to the American Forest and Paper Association, in excess of 90% of all products in the US are shipped in corrugated cardboard boxes. It makes up nearly 14 percent of the nation’s municipal solid waste.
It’s a huge industry, with around 10,000 paper and paperboard mills in operation globally. It’s really important that we recycle paper products, including cardboard boxes. Here’s some interesting statistics:
Each ton of paper produced consumes
• 17 trees
• 79 gallons of oil
• 7000 gallons of water
• 42,000 kilowatts of energy
• 60 gallons of air pollution
• 3 cubic yards of landfill space
Around 42 million people move each year in the USA and the average person will move 11.7 times in their lifetime – that’s a lot of boxes!
Buy Used Cardboard Boxes. While recycling paper products is great, reusing is even better, as that requires less energy and resources. Again… whether you’re moving house or shipping items for your store, perhaps consider buying used cardboard boxes. You’ll save all the above consumption and save some cash to boot. I’ve been following the progress of a great little company Used Cardboard Boxes, since they commenced operations back in 2006 and they’ve been doing some amazing things. Used Cardboard Boxes acquires truckloads of boxes from companies that might otherwise be thrown away. They also acquire misprints and overruns from box manufacturers that have no use for the boxes. These aren’t boxes with rips and tears; they are all in perfect condition. You’ll pay less for used boxes from the company and they guarantee free 1-2 day delivery to any address in the USA. They also donate a portion of their revenue to plant trees. Since the company began a few years back, UsedCardboardBoxes estimates their clients have saved:
– 6,709 trees
– 2,625,920 kilowatts of electricity (or 1,600 barrels of oil)
– 1,775,680 lbs CO2 (carbon dioxide)
– 3,485,760 gallons of water
– 618,560 lbs of solid waste
*I generally do not promote one particular company, but since I am in the “moving business” I love this concept.
Carole,
P.S. Happy Tax Day!
