Timely Real Estate News……………………………………15 September 2011
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Autumn always brings us a time for remembrance, hope, and optimism for our future
There is a certain ‘reality’ that comes after Labor Day — autumn (my favorite season) is just around the corner, vacations are over, kids are back in school, and we’re now focusing on the future and getting back to ‘stuff’ “. One of the other reasons that for me this is a special time of year is that it is also a time for reflection and renewal. A lot of people are going through a rough patch now, and as the lyrics in the song Turn,Turn,Turn” reflects those feelings,-
To Everything (Turn, Turn, Turn) There is a season (Turn, Turn, Turn)And a time to every purpose, under Heaven. Yes, autumn is a lovely time of year….and with the Jewish New Year coming on September 28, it’s also a time for hope, renewal and dedication. Speaking of the Jewish New Year, Happy New Year, and here is the link to a fun You Tube video about the holiday: Dip Your Apple – Fountainheads Rosh Hashanah – YouTube
Rough patches or not….we’ll get through this.
I’m encouraged by what my coach, Tom Ferry, stated that in these uncertain times, “…we must be inspired to action — not inaction, not doing the same ol’thing — but to be enthusiastic and inspired in how we approach our daily lives.” As a Realtor, I help people find their new dream — whether it’s selling their home and having them move on to their next phase or helping clients find the new home of their dreams. It is all very inspiring and gratifying for me, and while some transactions are more troublesome than others, at the end of the day, I am most grateful for all of them and for those of you who provide me with those opportunities.
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Westside real estate sales continued strong through the summer
You wouldn’t know that the US economy is rather “anemic” as our gross domestic product struggles below 2%, but in the four communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air, and Brentwood — we are doing exceedingly well, thank you. Sales volume — one of the key indicators for our local real estate economy — is up 20.4% for the year over 2010, but get this: Our sales volume in these four communities is up 59% over 2009 as we were languishing in the mid-recession doldrums. Sales volume through August 2011 was $1.394 billion vs. $1.157 billion in 2010….and just $876 million for the same eight-month period in 2009. That’s impressive. Please remember, that while overall the sales volume is up, for the most part, the prices are down. As I have mentioned previously, we have had some significant large luxury home sales which obviously skew the numbers; that is a common element in all of my monthly and year to date sales reports. We’re not entirely back yet — but we are working on it!
All four communities were up in August…..this is good news, too!
For the first time in 2011, all four of these communities are in positive territory for the median sales price when compared for the year and for the month of August. Beverly Hills, which always has the largest swings in median sales price on a monthly basis, was up a whopping 78% for last month compared to August 2010, averaging $5.275 million on single family units. This compares with a 2010 August figure average of $2.958 median sales price, for example, in 2010 there were eight sales over $3,000,000, and in 2011 there were eleven ranging in price from $3,626,000 to $11,950,000. Brentwood followed with a 28% increase in median sales price — $1.975 million for August 2011 vs. $1.534 million for same period last year. In Brentwood last year there was only 1 sale in August over $3,000,000 vs. 3 this year.
Bel-Air came in at 18% over the previous year in median sales price — with an August 2011 average of $1,791 vs. $1.511 million in 2010. In 2010, there were only 2 sales over 3, with one of them coming in at $11,000,000 and while was just one more this year, they ranged in priced from $6,375,000 to $18,700,000….and Beverly Hills Post Office has an 11% jump in August over last year, with a median sales price of $1.826 million vs. $1.642 million for August 2010. In August of 2010 in Beverly Hills Post Office there were no sales over $3,000,000.00 vs. three this year, and one of them was for $13,800. These numbers continue to support the feelings of “smart money” that I mentioned in the last issue of the SchifferLine. Here again, these numbers are impacted by the big numbers for some of these sales as well as the counting of some multiple sales by the MLS, which obviously skews the numbers. By the way, watch for the re-opening of the Hotel Bel Air in the next few weeks!
Because we have such an up/down, roller-coaster experience in our monthly sales statistics, it’s no surprise to see that August median sales price for Beverly Hills was 80% higher for August 2011 vs. July 2011. Bel-Air was up 44% in median sales price last month over July 2011, but BHPO was down 42% when comparing August 2011 with July 2011….and Brentwood was down a modest 7%.
So what does this, portend? Looking back at our ‘state of affairs’ in 2009, we have made tremendous progress in building back our resale market in these four communities. Will this continue? Everyone I talk to is concerned about the future — for sure — but we all recognize, too, we’re busier today than we were two or three years ago. Yes! I predict these trends will continue.
There is a vitality in the market place — not just in these numbers — but in our Open Houses and seeing real prospects are serious buyers who are not just looking for bargains but who want to live here. Yes, we have investors who are looking for bargains. But, why? Because they have faith in our communities — they recognize the inherent, unique values and strength we have in our neighborhoods and business areas — great shops, great schools, and great restaurants.
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What’s needed for the future? Capital flowing back into the housing market… ..
Those who ‘read the news’, cannot escape the predictions for our national economy that seem to pop up every day in every medium. Here is one from the Wall Street Journal that I found last week that is pertinent to our housing industry: According to the Federal Reserve, the United States needs to make it more attractive for capital to flow back into the housing market to get the residential real estate industry — and the economy — back on track, a Federal Reserve economist said Wednesday. The nation is in a “new normal” marked by 2% to 3% growth rates, more frequent recessions, low interest rates and sluggish consumer spending, said William Emmons, assistant vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
This new normal includes millions of foreclosures still in the pipeline. Households, he said, will continue to deleverage — both voluntarily by paying down debt and involuntarily via mortgage defaults — putting further constraints on the economy. “My estimate is that we have in the U.S., somewhere between $3 trillion to $5 trillion
too much mortgage debt,” he said. Emmons said the average household needs to deleverage by about $80,000 or about a third of its mortgage debt. Many millions of households have experienced great stress on their balance
sheets,” he said. “There is tremendous pressure to reduce debt.” That is key in understanding why the economy is going to grow so slowly.
The new normal could last as long as seven to 10 years, he predicted, noting that was his own view not that of the Federal Reserve. Emmons gave a decidedly pessimistic view of nation’s growth prospects, saying he doesn’t expect a bottom before 2015. He spoke as part of a webinar hosted by the American Legal & Financial Network, a national network of legal and residential mortgage banking professionals.
“We have to find that place where housing becomes exciting again and people want to buy houses,” Emmons said, noting that investors will be key to a “self healing” of the housing economy and pointed to “the capitalistic instinct to realize that any period of turmoil presents opportunities.” Equity investors who view depressed housing prices as an opportunity could allow for large-scale conversion of for-sale properties into rental properties, helping to reduce the time it will take to re-balance the economy.
Emmons said he expected little, if anything, out of Washington with the existing cost-cutting mindset and lack of political will for grand-scale programs that would be large enough to make a difference. He also said the Federal Reserve has done what it can, saying the problem is one of solvency not liquidity.
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Master Mind Group?
I am very honored to have been asked to join other top real estate agents around the country to be part of a Master Mind Group. We will be meeting on a bi monthly basis to discuss what is happening in their markets as well as what we are doing to make it better for our clients. I look forward to sharing these findings with my clients as we move forward.
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More Local Construction Projects Impacting Our Roads!
As we drive around the Westside, I am sure that you have noticed that we have more than the construction on the widening of the 405. A project was begun to rehabilitate, and replace the aging sewer pipes all over the city throughout the next 10 years! They began some of that project here late summer. The area they are concentrating on is being called the Mulholland and Bellagio Road Project and extends in an area bounded by Mulholland to the north, Sunset to the south, Roscomare to the east and Mandeville to the west. This portion of the program will last until summer of 2012, weather conditions permitting. The hours of construction are Monday through Friday from 7:00 to 4:00, and on major streets from 9:00 am to 3:30. For more information, please visit www.lasewers.org, and click on City Sewers, the find the Secondary Sewer Renewal Program (SSRP) or call 213 978-0333.
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Cutting boards plastic vs. wood
Plastic boards are based on petroleum products and a considerable quantity of crude oil, energy and chemicals go into making them. From what I’ve been able to research, it seems it takes just under twice the amount of crude oil to create the equivalent weight in plastic. The concept that plastic cutting boards are a more hygienic choice appears to be somewhat misguided. This may be the case where a board is new, but over a period of time the countless score marks become havens for bacteria that cannot be easily removed through normal washing.
A healthier and greener choice – wood cutting boards
From a hygiene point of view, it’s been found that the capillary action of dry wood means bacteria are quickly sucked up and die. Wood boards are also self healing to a degree and shallow score marks in the wood will close
up over time. Often cutting boards are made from the off cuts from milling operations, so they are basically a waste product that is being put to good use. If the issue of timber cutting operations is of particular concern to you; there are boards available that come from sustainable forestry operations; or if in doubt, contact manufacturers before purchase to find out how they source their wood.
One type of wood to consider is teak. Teak is a very nice looking wood and incredibly durable. The boards are made without fillers, stains or any harmful chemicals. Bamboo boards have also become quite popular. Bamboo is a readily renewable resource, pest resistant, can grow in poor soils and in comparison to other crops, requires little water. I have one and it’s held up well over a few years of use. Something that has been mentioned to watch out for is that as bamboo boards aren’t made from a single piece of material, they often incorporate glues that may contain formaldehyde.
Given a good wood cutting board will last far longer that a plastic one, this translates into energy savings, less oil consumption and associated environmental issues, plus you’ll save some cash as well over the long term.
To help waterproof and seal a wood cutting board (if it hasn’t already been done), making it easier to keep clean, earth friendly products such as beeswax or coconut oil can be used. Don’t use plain vegetable or cooking oil as these will turn rancid. Sealing a board will also help prevent odors from items such as onions tainting other foods. To disinfect a wooden board, use a 3% hydrogen peroxide solution or neat vinegar – simply spray it on, then wipe it off.. and, regardless of the type of board you choose and as a food safety precaution, have separate ones for meat, fruit and vegetables, dairy and poultry.
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My News
I have been very busy with a lot of buyers, all committed to buying now and taking advantage of the market and have been showing properties from Beverly Hills to the Palisades Highlands. I also have a few more listings coming up in the next month or so… We are working on getting the house ready to market.
Please let me know how I can assist you with any of your real estate needs. Looking forward to hearing from you.
