Timely Real Estate News………………………………………………….. 15 May 2009
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Silver Linings are ever present….do not despair
Ever get the feeling that when you walk out to your driveway in the morning to get the paper, there is disaster lurking inside the plastic wrap? Some of us, like me, wait until the evening to scan the news and headlines, and perhaps this is my way of delaying a bad news day. Lately, there have been some rather intriguing signs that things are picking up in general. As reported recently in the Los Angeles Times, buyers are swooping down on bargains now available in the lower price ranges –”buyer frenzy” they call it. That’s the good news. The not-so-bad news is that this frenzy is occurring in the $300,000-lower-price range, mostly in areas like the Inland Empire. Good for them.
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Westside real estate appears turning around…..
On the Westside, we are in a very interesting market. Yes, it is spring — the busiest time of the year (if you’re not selling homes now, something is wrong), but what we have seen in spring’s first full month — April — is encouraging. Sales volume for the first four months of 2009 is still down — to 42% of the previous comparable period in 2008, but it’s better than the 52% negative for the first three months (January-March 2009). That’s good news. And Beverly Hills Post Office, which has taken some large hits in 2008, is actually up in total sales volume by 6% over 2008 period. So we continue to move in the right direction.
The silver linings are in clouds over Beverly Hills, which showed a 13% increase in median sales price for April 2009 over the same period in 2008. Beverly Hills Post Office had a huge increase of 55% for the same period compared to 2008, and Bel -Air beat them all with a 61% sales increase in median sales prices for April 2009 vs. April 2008. Brentwood suffered a modest 15% decline. Please note, however, that all of these prices are based on a total 21 transactions, not the kind of numbers we like to see, but still, encouraging.
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Year-To-Date numbers continue to improve
The best news are in the “year-to-date” median sales price reports that cover the January-thru-April period for 2009 — Beverly Hills Post Office is up to 56% for median sales prices at $3,137,000; Bel-Air is up 25% to a MSP of $2,162,000. Beverly Hills is down 20% to $3,000,000 and Brentwood is further down 32% to $1,697,000. But remember, these numbers can be greatly influenced by large sales that occur from month to month in each of these communities.
Coldwell Banker’s Brentwood Court Office — market fluctuations abound
One of the barometers we use is: How busy is our office? Coldwell Banker’s Brentwood Court office has shown a resiliency over the past several years in its market — which covers much of the Westside. Total volume for March is down only 22% (vs. 52% in the four communities I cover); but for April, total sales volume was down nearly 55%. There was a big drop off in sales in April for the office — again, the vagaries of the market from month to month reflect the shifting trends in all real estate markets.
So, what does this all mean?
It means simply this: Every stat we get from the Multiple Listing Service is a ‘slice’ — a snapshot of statistics that are trailing — at best — by several months. As I have told you in the past, many sales are NOT recorded the month they sell because of the time it takes to go through the escrow process. So a property that has had a 60 day escrow may be reflecting the value of when it went into escrow rather than the date of the “closed” or recorded escrow. As I have mentioned before, the MLS stats are only a guide to go by. As I was discussing with a client today, the swings can be so great from one month to the next and can be skewed so easily by one or two low or high sales that one needs to keep their perspective in reading and understanding these “stats”.
So what do you do with this information: I want to keep you abreast of what the professionals in the field use for their benchmarks. At the end of the day, the best way to determine the value of your home and/or neighborhood, is to get an up-to-date appraisal from an experienced Realtor, like me! I can give you a market appraisal of your home quickly and accurately if you would like. We use existing comps, of course, but also, you can utilize my vast experience and knowledge of your neighborhood to your advantage. Setting a price for your home is not easy today — many of you are concerned about the dropping prices — and yes, some areas have dropped more than others. But here, on the Westside, we’re fortunate to have a strong, desirable market that continues to show market strength overall. The MLS stats that I provide you each month demonstrate this area’s market strength, if nothing else. However, there is something else to take into consideration, and that is how the lending institutions are handling the buyer’s loans today. In the past, when a buyer received a credit toward their purchase (repairs, etc.) it was handled as a credit to the down payment.. In today’s world the banks are requiring that it be handled as deduction of the purchase price, so in fact that sales numbers that are in the public records, and the MLS may not be the actual sales price because of these credits.
Besides, these are community statistics — not relating to your specific home or neighborhood. Yes, they reflect a ‘trend’ in how sales are going and to some degree, current pricing trends, but the stats are ‘trends’.
A client of mine and I were discussing Warren Buffet , and as he reminded us, this recession is completely different than others we have experienced before…..there is no way that anyone can really predict what is going to happen. He also mentioned that it has changed people’s reactions to economics in general in that we are changing our priorities and in many cases, the need for endless consumption has stopped.
There are silver linings this month — as there have been every month since I have writing The SchifferLine. I just want to assure you that I will always give you the best insight and professional service I can — regardless of the market conditions. That’s the best I can do!
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Water, Water, Everywhere….well, not exactly
This is William Shakespeare’s time – water rationing is coming to a neighborhood near you! Starting June 1, you will have to reduce your water usage by 15% from previous year’s quantity. According to the City of Los Angeles’s Department of Water and Power, all LA residents will be required to conform to the new water reduction edict that is designed to address the existing drought conditions in California. You may only irrigate your landscaping on Mondays and Thursdays, before 9:00 a.m. and after 4:00 p.m. – cutting back your total water usage by 15%. If you don’t, you’ll be fined. And Bill won’t be very happy. For more specifics, please go to the web site for the DWP. In the next SchifferLine I plan on having more information on the use of “grey water”, but I want to do a little research first.
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Green Tip of the Month
I have mentioned the recycling center at UCLA, but I just found out how vast their services are. It is called the UCLA Safe Center, 550 Charles E. Young Dr., West 1800-988-6942. They are located off of Gayley Ave, near Pauley Pavilion. Their hours are Thursday, Friday and Saturday 8:00 – 2:00 pm. Electronic waste on Saturdays only. All you have to do is pull up, open up your trunk; they will empty it for you and off you go.
Here is a list of what they accept: paint and solvents, used motor oil and filters, antifreeze, and other automotive fluids; cleaning products; pool and garden chemicals; aerosol cans; all medicine; auto batteries; household (alkaline) batteries; fluorescent tubes and bulbs, thermostats, and other mercury containing lamps. They also accept, computers, monitors, printers, network equipment, cables, telephones, televisions, microwaves, video games, cell phones, radios, stereos, VCR’s and electronic toys.. You will be limited to only six pieces of electronic waste per visit.
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I also want to thank all of you for the wonderful comments and compliments you give me about this publication… A lot of hard work goes into and it is always so rewarding to hear that people like and appreciate what you are doing.
Thank you.
I hope you have a wonderful and safe Memorial Day holiday
