Timely Real Estate News…………………………………………………. 15 June 2009
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Look up…you may see a silver lining. Then, again, you may not.
Well, the good news, the sky is not falling. And there are some silver linings over the Westside in Beverly Hills Post Office and Bel-Air, where the numbers for May 2009 are up over last year. Beverly Hills and Brentwood have shown weakness in Median Sales Prices, and after suffering for much of this year, BH Post Office is actually 1% ahead of 2008 year-to-date volumes for this year where the other communities are down by as much as 50%.
Before I get into the specifics, I do want to share with you this observation: We do not live by the MLS numbers to be honest….to be successful in this market, you can’t be looking in the rear-view mirror: You must press forward, stay positive, and re-invent yourself every day it seems. But the MLS statistics give us monthly benchmarks about how sales are actually doing, and what I have witnessed since the economy turned south is that Year-To-Date #s are much more realistic and meaningful than the month-to-month and monthly comparisons that I have been sharing with you.
Year-To-Date #s incorporate all the anomalies that each area has each month. For example, there has been a big rush on homes over the $3 million mark during the past two months (April and May 2009). There have been 13 homes over that mark in Beverly Hills in that period, compared to just seven between January and March. Five homes sold for over $3 million in Beverly Hills Post Office in the last two months, which is the same number for the first three months. Bel-Air has seen the same — three out of the six homes sold over $3 million since the first of year came in April and May, while Brentwood has had six of the 15 homes over $3 million sold in the April-May period.
Of course, the higher-priced homes have a great impact on the monthly median sales price in every community I cover. For example, Beverly Hills Post Office had a home selling for $31.5 million in April 2009 — this dramatically influences the monthly statistic for that area and overall. Not surprisingly, we are seeing more and more homes over the $5 million level closing escrow. Beverly Hills, the leader in MLS pricing for California, had sales of $6 million; $6.5 million, $5.4 million, $10 million, $8 million, $4.1 million, and $6.5 million between April 1 and May 31. For the same period, Brentwood had sales of $6.2 million, $8 million, $9 million and $13 million.
But don’t get too excited, OK? To sober you up, please understand that Beverly Hills is also the leader in missing the Original Listing Price vs. Selling Price by more than 35%. Homes sold in BH in May 2009 averaged 64.91% of the original listing price, whereas BHPO was 81%, Bel-Air — 85%, and Brentwood was 81% of the original listing price…which brings up this point:
Are you really a seller and/or a buyer? Getting a reality check.
This last statistic should serve as a reality check to anyone who is selling a home. The vagaries of the marketplace today are driving home the point that if a home is not priced correctly, it will sit…and sit…and sit. While it might sell eventually, most likely it will sell for less than it would have had it been properly priced to begin with. Some sellers are still living in the past, and because you read about the sales of higher-priced homes, unrealistic sellers believe that their house will sell at the price “they” think it should sell for, regardless of what an experienced Realtor may recommend. I have seen this over and over in these market conditions, and I find that buyers, too, will make unrealistic offers — and be indignant that their offers were rejected. A seller who doesn’t properly price their home is really not a seller and buyers who prefer to disregard the comparable sales or ask for unrealistic terms are not buyers. As you know, I teach new licensees about the practice of selling real estate, and one of the major points I drive home time and again is that while we all may do a good job in financially qualifying our clients, we need to do an equally good job in emotionally qualifying our clients. Just because there is a “For Sale” sign in the front yard, a seller it does not make them, nor does it make someone a buyer if they are making unrealistic offers.
The reality today is that you really do need an experienced Realtor who knows both the neighborhood and the market to understand what is the right pricing and marketing strategy — for buying and selling. And of course, that is why you should contact me!
OK….let’s look at last month’s performance on the MLS
Beverly Hills Post Office and Bel-Air both posted gains in May 2009 over May 2008 — BHPO showing a 10% median sales price increase and Bel-Air a whopping 51% increase (of course, these prices are skewed by some of the big sales prices we have had). Beverly Hills was down just 5% and Brentwood was down 11% compared to a year ago. Not bad. As I stated earlier, Year-To-Date numbers mitigate the monthly anomalies (like in Bel-Air last month): For the year, Bel-Air was up 26% through May 31; Beverly Hills was down 11%; Beverly Hills Post office was down 9% (even with the $31.5 million sale); and Brentwood was down 23%. There was also a sale for $10.6 million that was listed in the MLS with the property being in Brentwood, when in fact it is in Santa Monica, which that threw off the averages as well.
Volumes overall for all four communities were down a collective 39% — still hovering under the 40%, but we are seeing improvements in office activity. Everyone — including me is very busy — now all we need if for everyone to get a little “old time religion” and we will be off to the races again! This is the hot selling season now (the next two months)….so you will see marked increases in volumes — and we’ll wait to see how prices hold. There will always be silver linings in our Westside. They just move around a little.
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Miscellany……Morgan faces life — my niece from Vancouver, Canada, just completed her Sophomore year at USC, and voila, she is now a confirmed Trojan (she even has season tickets for USC football) who, after suffering the Freshman blues, emerged victorious this last year, making the Dean’s List, falling in love, and looking forward to coming back for her Junior year. Switching from pre-Med to pre-Dental, she plans to become a dentist back in her native Canada and possibly attending the University of British Columbia for dental school. Her biggest challenge now: Sharing the one family car that she and her 17 year old brother, Connor — who just received his driver’s license — have at their disposal. Both are still looking for jobs, — Connor is the new captain of his high school mountain biking team, the proud owner of a number of mountain biking medals, and has hopes of acquiring a new bike (only $5,000), and Morgan is looking forward to enjoying the Fall at USC. Its fun to watch my niece and nephew grow up….even if one does go to USC. Also, since my daughter is a little older, it is fun to somewhat sit on the sidelines and remember the “teen years”.
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Scam Update
I don’t know about you, but I find the information about all of the scams out there that I mentioned in the last Schiffer Line very alarming, so it was most rewarding to read in the Los Angeles Times that Attorney General Jerry Brown has instituted a new program for the State of California. Anyone who is in the business of offering their services for the purpose of loan modification, etc. – needs to register with the state and post a $100,000 bond before they can do business by July 1, 2009. Hopefully this will eliminate the scam artists!
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Dishwashing detergent environmental impact
As some of you may know, my Father manufactured soaps and detergents, so in sharing this information, I am being transported back to my childhood. I remember many a conversation around the dinner table discussing this important environmental topic. In fact, at my behest, he began manufacturing a bio degradable dish and clothes washing detergents about 25 – 30 years ago! But it is important information to know and consider. Even the simple task of washing dishes can have an impact on the environment.
For starters, many dishwashing detergents contain phosphate – it’s a naturally occurring substance, but if too much of it gets into waterways, algae and phytoplankton feed on it and reproduce in massive numbers; causing an algal bloom.
One of the most dangerous blooms is created by blue-green algae, cyan bacteria. If large amounts are ingested, this can even kill humans.
Algal blooms block out sunlight and cause oxygen imbalances in a body of water; and as a result kill off other species.
While it’s best to use a phosphate free detergent, depending on where you live and whether you wash by hand or use a dishwasher, it may be impractical or cost prohibitive to use phosphate free detergents. These being the case, compare detergents for phosphate levels. A low phosphate level is considered to be around 1.6%, but you also need to compare how much detergent you need to use.
Other dish washing detergent nasties
Phosphate isn’t the only concern. Dish washing detergents can contain a myriad of chemicals. Surfactants, stability and dispensing aids, fragrances and colors, mildness additives, preservatives and antibacterial agents are sometimes added. In some cases these might be naturally occurring substances, but often they aren’t. Some will be toxic to aquatic organisms and likely won’t be filtered out at water treatment facilities.
Green dish washing detergents
The good news is that there are many more economical environmentally friendly dish washing detergents than there were just a few years ago, but their level of “greenness” will vary greatly. For example, a detergent may proclaim to be phosphate free, but the other ingredients will read like a laboratory shopping list – so be sure to study the labels before making a purchase decision and beware of green washing.
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A number of you have complimented me on my interest in being Green, but have not yet shared your e-mail addresses with me. Please send me an e-mail and I will make sure that you receive the SchifferLine via e-mail in the future. I would also love to hear from you if you have decided to enjoy some of the attractions I listed in my “Things to Do in Southern California” postcard. I love hearing from you.
