Timely Real Estate News………………………………………15 July 2011
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Have we hit bottom? Some think so…..but is it too early to tell?
Over the weekend, the Los Angeles Times published a front-page article in the Business Section about the “deafening buzz” created by the sales of a half-dozen Westside mega estates — all selling for over $20 million.
The article pointed out, also, that we haven’t seen the last of the big-sellers, either. There is more to come…..Candy Spelling’s ‘larger-than-White-House-sized manor’, which was originally listed for $150 million in Holmby Hills (for more than two years) is about to close escrow, and we’ll soon find out what that finally went for. Surely that home will eclipse last year’s record $50-million Bel-Air sale by a wide margin….but by how much?
Has the market turned on the Westside? Are we seeing the last of the bottom? Can I confidently tell my clients — yes, we’ve seen the worst of it. Well, I’m cautiously optimistic it has made a turn, a modest one. And one of the places I turn to, always, is UCLA’s Anderson School who closely tracks real estate in our own backyard. “It’s highly likely we would not see this activity if there wasn’t a growing belief that we are close to the bottom of the market,” stated Stuart Gabriel, director of the Ziman Center for Real Estate at Anderson. “Certainly on the Westside of L.A.,” he said, “we’re close to the trough. That doesn’t mean there isn’t a likelihood of future price drops, but the worst is behind us.”
When you put into perspective that L.A.-area prices are generally back to 2003 levels (yes, I said 2003!), Southern California’s median home prices have fallen nearly 45% to $280,000 in May….from a 2007 peak of $505,000. Now, that doesn’t tell the Westside story, but it gives you an overview of the ‘macro’ real estate market in which we exist.
As the article went on to point out, many of these mega estates went for as much as 25% off the original listing price, but still, there was a strengthening in the $20 million+ estates that managed to sell in the first half of 2011. All I can say is that we’ll see if we have seen the worst of it…..for me, it’s too early to tell, but I’m cautiously optimistic.
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Real estate sales volumes holds steady…ahead of 2010. Prices ahead of last year.
We all appreciate ‘little favors’ and when you are used to seeing prices going down, it’s nice to see that we are making headway in the four communities I report on….Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air, and Brentwood. Sales volume for the four communities continues to be up by 6% over 2010 through the first six months of 2011. That’s the good news. Total sales for single-family residences in these four communities was over $935 million, compared to $880 million last year. Median sales prices for June in Beverly Hills was up 21% over same period in 2010….Beverly Hills PO was up 11%….Bel-Air was up nearly 60% over 2011, and Brentwood was up 13%, which is great news — because it has been dragging behind the other three for much of last year and earlier this year.
While Beverly Hills remains behind last year’s median sales price by 12% (year-to-date), BHPO is running 8% ahead of 2010 for the first six months of 2011….Bel-Air is up 3%, and Brentwood is up 20% for median sales price through June 30. But the #s are somewhat mixed when you compare May 2011 to June 2011 — BH is down 14%; BHPO is up 51%; Bel-Air is up 5%, and Brentwood is down 12% when you compare median sales prices between May 2011 and June 2011.
While Beverly Hills is still feeling the effects a higher-than-normal median sales price from 2010’s large number of estate sales when June 2010 showed seven homes selling in excess of $3 million versus just three homes in this range in 2011. Days on market (DOM) in 2011 was 74. Beverly Hills Post Office had four homes selling for $3 million plus in 2010 versus six in this price category in 2011 and the DOM is 130 this year vs. 104 last year. Bel-Air has five sales in the $3 million bracket in 2011 versus none for 2010. DOM was 96 in 2011 vs. 58 in 2010. Brentwood had seven in the $3 million price range vs. six in 2010 with the DOM as 60 this year vs. 52 last year. The stats are of f a little as there were a few double sales posted in Brentwood both this past June as well as last year, and t hat obviously throws the stats off some.
Again, as I have said so many times….our four communities are prone to have statistically good and bad months simply because we have so many large estates, most of which are gated, those sales just skew the market stats every so often….it just comes with the territory. And of course, we have one of the best “territories” on the Planet — we all know that!
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“Carmageddon”….this is what it is all about!
Above is a computerized rendering of the new Mulholland Bridge that is to be completed sometime by mid-2013 — not the weekend of July 16-17, 2011. What our Westside communities are going through with the now famous “Carmageddon” 405 Sepulveda Pass shut down can only be told with personal stories. Many of us (myself included) have decided to “Get out of Dodge”….others have opted to make this a special stay at home weekend, and some are just plain curious with the prediction of “this will be just like 1984 when we were all warned about how horrible it will be while the Olympics were here, and it turned out to be just the opposite”. Send me your unique stories — and we’ll share some of them in the next issue of the SchifferLine on August 1.
If you decide to stay in town this weekend, or want the latest traffic conditions and closures/openings in general you can either call 599 or go to Go511.com. This is a terrific site — well done and very informative.
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Owning a home is an integral part of the American Dream…..
In a bi-partisan national poll of 2,000 likely voters by the National Association of Home Builders it was clear that homeownership holds a special place in Americans’ minds and the delicacy required to deal with the issue…..75% of voters believe that “owning a home is the best long-term investment they can make and is worth the risk of ups and downs in the housing market.”
Interestingly, a high percentage of those surveyed who were in different financial situations all had positive views — 81% of those who own their homes outright felt strongly about home ownership….76% with mortgages, 67% with renters, and 65% with homes that were ‘underwater’, which I find amazing.
Eighty percent of respondents said they would recommend buying a house to a close friend or family member just starting out, including 78% who had underwater mortgages. 73% who did not own a home said their goal is to eventually buy one. As we know, the federal tax code has always been favorable to home ownership. 73% felt that the incentives provided in the tax code or encourage home ownership should be continued to be provided — and that included 71% of Republicans, 68% of independents, 79% of Democrats, and even 68% of members of the Tea Party.
When you see such strong support for home ownership, it’s not surprising that 71% oppose eliminating the mortgage-interest deduction and 63% oppose lowering it. The message is clear: Owning a home is among the values of Americans most cherish — and it’s an important part of the American Dream.
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Call 3-9-9 for Non-Emergency Roadside Assistance on the Highway
If your car breaks down on the freeway and there is no Call Box in sight, you can use your cell phone to get non-emergency roadside assistance quickly and easily by calling 3-9-9. You can also use this to report obstacles or hazards in the road, (but wait until you have stopped driving to call!). Calls to 3-9-9 are connected to Call Box operators who can Metro Freeway Service Patrol (FSP) tow trucks to your location.
If you are covered by AAA, the dispatcher can patch your call straight through to AAA. FSP help is free of charge, and is funded by an additional $1 on every Vehicle Licenses Fee in the State of California. In emergencies, you should still always call 9-1-1. (This informative article was provided by Los Angeles Councilman Paul Koretz.)
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Sunscreen – protection or poison?
The regular use of sunscreen lotion might provide some protection from sunburn, but it may also have quite serious health risks – for ourselves and the wider environment. The sunscreen industry is huge – worth billions of dollars annually. It rose to mega-profitability when a link was made between skin cancer and over-exposure to the sun in the late 60’s/early 1970’s. Yet the incidence
of skin cancer continues to rise even though these products are widely used. The latest investigation by the Environmental Working Group of over 1,700 sunscreens and other sun-blocking products currently on the market found only one in five sunscreens earned high marks for safety and efficacy. Leading brands were again this year among the worst offenders.
It’s quite disturbing what’s in some sunscreen preparations. Millions of gallons of sunscreen are consumed each year. After application, it doesn’t mysteriously vanish – it winds up either soaking into our bodies or accumulating there or is excreted (into the environment) or washed off; again – into the environment.
I’m now a little cynical about the claimed benefits of sunscreen. Sure, it may stop us from burning; but isn’t that nature’s way of telling us “get the heck out of the sun and don’t stay out here this long again”?
And aside from all the chemicals, does it actually stop melanomas, the most dangerous type of skin cancer, from forming?
One of the other problems with sunscreen is in order to be effective against less serious forms of skin cancer; you need to use a lot of it, and far more often than what the manufacturers recommend and regardless of what the SPF rating is. If you’re in shorts and a t-shirt and working up a bit of a sweat, the amount you’d need to use over an 8 hour period is the equivalent to a 100 ml or 3.5 ounce tube. Imagine if you worked outside each day and followed “best practice” sunscreen application – it would cost you a fortune, not to mention having applied many pounds of toxic chemicals to your body every year. Let’s not forget about all that packaging too – mainly plastic tubes and pump packs that wind up in landfill – millions of them every single year.
After reading on the subject; the cheapest, most earth friendly and proven sunscreen solutions I could find are: stay out of the sun, stay out of the sun especially between 10 and 3pm, if you have to spend time in the sun, cover up, wear a wide brimmed hat and UV sunglasses.
It’s basically all just common sense. Some people just aren’t meant to spend lengthy periods in the sun – and light skinned Caucasians are a group most at risk. People with lighter features are 20 times more likely to develop melanoma than African Americans.
I know I have to stay out of the sun, and this from a reformed “sun bunny” who used to spend all day at the beach and taught swimming!
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What is the Quick Response Code and how am I using it???
As you most likely have seen, there is a newish vehicle available for people to obtain “instant information” on items for sale, coupons, etc. This code is being used in a number of different types of business, and in different ways. It is also used for real estate, and I am using it to promote my listings. On the For Sale signs I will now have a sticker with the coding for anyone who drives by one of my listings and has a “Smart Phone with a camera” to be able to capture or scan the code on the sticker and go directly to my web site and obtain all of the information on the property they are looking at. I in turn am able to obtain their information and get in touch with them. Here is a sample of what the code looks like.
