Timely Real Estate News…………………………………………… 15 January 2009
**********************************************************************************************************************************************
Happy New Year — Yogi Bera was right…..It ain’t over ’til it’s over….
“Gung Hay Fat Choy”….hold on to your New Years hats and horn blowers…we still have at least 15 more days to celebrate the New Year. The ball hasn’t dropped yet in Beijing, which will occur on January 26 when the Chinese New Year begins. The coming year will be the Year of the Ox (2008 was the Year of the Rat). Those born under the Ox sign means you are thought to be honest, pragmatic, reliable, hard working, and tolerant — with good, sound financial judgment.
According to Cooking Light magazine, the Chinese believe that you will have good luck by eating certain foods such as lettuce (growing wealth), shrimp (good fortune for the coming year), mangos (gold and riches), golden carrots (prosperity), and cooking a whole chicken is thought to insure good luck for the coming year. There is also a warning: … if you eat long-life noodles — cutting long noodles in half will shorten your life, but eating any noodles is considered good luck.
And the color red is considered lucky also. So, here’s the plan for your Chinese New Year celebration: Prepare a wonderful shrimp and chicken salad on a bed of lettuce and noodles served with sliced mangos and golden carrots, served in red bowl. If you do want some recipes, please check out the February issue of the magazine. And for 2009 — or 4706 on the Chinese calendar — we need all the good luck, good fortune and wealth we can get. Remember – you’ve got 15 days to celebrate. Happy New Year or as they say in China: Gung Hay Fat Choy!!!
***********************************************************************************************************************************************
Playing the numbers game….Westside remains relatively strong
After waiting to get the final statistics from the Multiple Listing Service for the four communities I specialize in (Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel Air and Brentwood), I was relieved to see that sales prices have not declined as far as I had anticipated, and I was encouraged by the strength of December sales. There is a silver lining after all, although you couldn’t tell that from the warm, cloudless skies we’ve had for the past several weeks.
November 2008 — let’s go back to November’s performance for these four communities before we tackle December. November’s MLS stats were not available until after January 2, so I missed passing these along to you, but here’s the scoop: There continues to be wild swings in the median sales prices in each of the four communities from month to month. Beverly Hills was down 12% for November 2008 compared to November 2007, but was nearly even for the year by being down only 1%;
Bel-Air had a great month — its median sales price was up 65% for November 2008 vs. November 2007, and year-to-date numbers show it was even with last year. Beverly Hills Post Office didn’t do well in November, down 21% compared to a year ago, and was down 16% for the year. And Brentwood was down 47% for November vs. November 2007; and down only 4% through November 30 for the year. Sales volumes for all for communities through November 2008 was down 35%, about the same average we have been maintaining throughout the year.
So with the exception of Beverly Hills Post Office, we’ve had very little negative movement in median sales prices through November.
What about December? If you look at the comparisons between December 2008 vs. December 2007 — and thought this was your ‘life story’, you might consider slashing your wrists. Comparing last month’s median sales prices with December 2007, Beverly Hills was down 33%, Beverly Hills Post Office off by 48%, Bel-Air down 68%, and Brentwood declined 42%. These are the worst numbers we’ve had this year in any one month. I know the percentages look alarming, but when you look at the number of sales in the month, for example, 4 in Bel Air, it tends to make the percentages more volatile.
But hold on: Let’s look at the year-end median sales prices! Beverly Hills is only down 4%, Bel-Air is down 3%, Brentwood down 4%, and Beverly Hills Post Office is still hovering around 17% down from 2007. Considering the meltdown in the economy during the last three months of 2008, and seeing the market decline and unemployment rising, combined with miserable retail sales performance, these numbers are relatively not-so-bad. When other regions are seeing declines in sales prices in the mid-30% and some in the low 40%, we need to understand that even though we had some big declines in some months during the past year, we’re still better off than most. Am I optimistic about 2009? Yes. I see more business coming my way than this time last year, and I maintain a positive attitude. The amount of activity I have seen for both myself and others in my office since coming back to work on January 5th is most heartening.
*********************************************************************************************************************************************
An offer you can’t refuse….$1,000 in your wallet!
Here’s the deal: You refer me (Carole Schiffer) to any client who either buys a home through me or lists with me — and it sells and closes escrow. On close of escrow, you’ll receive a $1,000 referral fee (if you are not a licensed real estate agent or broker). Hmmmm, what could you do with a $1,000? — a few examples: Buy your wife a stunning gold bracelet….or five 3G iPhones for the family…purchase four bottles of 1996 Opus One Napa Proprietary Red…or an exquisite dinner for four at French Laundry in Yountville….or 500 gallons of premium gas….or just pay some bills (what a concept). Call me!
***********************************************************************************************************************************************
Lower interest rates — are they real?
John Ciolino with First Capital Mortgage, my favorite mortgage broker told me that if you have an adjustable rate loan with Union Bank, and only Union Bank, and you are in your 6th year of the loan, you can have the option of converting that loan to a fixed rate loan. There is no limit to the loan amount, he heard about it from someone who had a loan for $1.2. so if you qualify and are interested in this you might want to give them a call. You can also give John a call at 310 656-8201.
***********************************************************************************************************************************************
Looking forward to 2009
With the inauguration of our new President, Barrack Obama, many of us in the real estate industry are looking hopefully to the future that interest rates and the markets will solidify soon and we can return to a more normal state. I would like all of you to just stop, look around our great community, and realize that we are living in one of the greatest places on the Planet. Yes, we’ve had some hard times these past few years, and we anticipate the first half of 2009 will still be in the recovery mode — but there is optimism for the last half of 2009…and we should all keep a positive attitude.
*********************************************************************************************************************************************
In the meantime, I do want to remind you that I have some wonderful properties available both for lease and for sale in Bel Air Crest and Mountaingate from $5,300 a month to $5,170,000, so please let me know if I can assist you in any way.