Timely Real Estate News…………………………………….15 December 2011
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Happy Holidays — we are feeling better, but are we becoming more cynical?
Perhaps a good-news present under our tree will be the recent poll showing that Americans are happier this holiday season than just three months ago according to Gallup’s confidence index (-39) which is the highest mark since optimism began recovering from a summer slump that began in July. The new seasonal cheer may be good for retailers and holiday spirits, too, but Gallup aptly pointed out that we have become more cynical, too, while the economy lingers and stumbles along, frustrating many. We’re still below the minus 32 rating recorded the same week a year ago. The highest recent rating was recorded in early 2008 at plus 7! So, perhaps there is good news — even if we’re in negative #s. There isn’t much we don’t or can’t measure these days — just take a look at how much more expensive the 12 Days of Christmas has become……
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Twelve Days of Christmas just got more expensive….
I know many of you put on your Christmas shopping list the 364 items that make up “The Twelve Days of Christmas” — from partridges and pear trees to seven swans-a-swimming. If you’re in the mood again this year, you’re in a for a big surprise (or maybe not): 2011’s list will cost you $101,119.84, the most expensive total ever according to PNC Wealth Management, which for some strange reason (publicity) tracks this every year for us.
Compiled on this 364-item list in this classic carol, the Twelve Days of Christmas Index (yes, that’s what they call it) is up 4.4%. Birds this year were a pricy proposition — cost of those seven swans-a-swimming soared $700 or 12.5% to $6,300, which is the largest dollar increase out of the song’s collection of gifts. A partridge is now 14.2% more expensive at $15….two turtle doves cost $125, a 25% increase because of the rising cost of feed and availability. Five gold rings were actually cheaper this season as high prices for the metal drove down retail demand by 0.8%. And if you’re wondering about your Thanksgiving Day dinner — it was 13% more expensive in 2011 than last year.
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Three special holidays during the holiday season……
This is a busy time of year for just about everyone — scurrying to get last-minute shopping done. So like many of you, I love to share the holidays with friends and family. Traditions seem to grow or stay the same each year — but for most of us, we will be celebrating any one (or all three) of the traditional holidays — Kwanzaa, starts its festive period December 26 and runs through January 1; Chanukah — begins December 20 and ends December 28; and Christmas, is celebrated on December 25, although we all know that Christmas selling season began in August when the big box retailers like Wal-Mart and Costco had all their Christmas stuff in the aisles. Whatever is
your choice (or non-choice), I want to wish you a wonderful Happy, Healthy Holiday and festive New Year.
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Have you ever wondered where the story of Santa Claus came from?
The American version of the Santa Claus figure received its inspiration and its name from the Dutch legend of Sinter Klaas, brought by settlers to New York in the 17th century. As early as 1773 the name appeared in the American pressas “St. A Claus,” but it was the popular author Washington Irving who gave Americans their first detailed information about the Dutch version of Saint Nicholas. In his “History of New York”, published in 1809 under the pseudonym Diedrich Knickerbocker, Irving described the arrival of the saint on horseback) each Eve of Saint Nicholas. This Dutch-American Saint Nick achieved his fully Americanized form in 1823 in the poem” A Visit From Saint Nicholas” more commonly known as “The Night Before Christmas” by writer Clement Clarke Moore. Moore included such details as the names of the reindeer; Santa Claus’s laughs, winks, and nods; and the method by which Saint Nicholas, referred to as an elf, returns up the chimney. (Moore’s phrase “lays his finger aside of his nose” was drawn directly from Irving’s 1809 description.)
The American image of Santa Claus was further elaborated by illustrator Thomas Nast, who depicted a rotund Santa for Christmas issues of Harper’s magazine from the 1860s to the 1880s. Nast added such details as Santa’s workshop at the North Pole and Santa’s list of the good and bad children of the world. A human-sized version of Santa Claus, rather than the elf of Moore’s poem, was depicted in a series of illustrations for Coca-Cola advertisements introduced in 1931 that introduced and made the red Santa Suits an icon. In modern versions of the Santa Claus legend, only his toy-shop workers are elves. Rudolph, the ninth reindeer, with a red and shiny nose, was invented in 1939 by an advertising writer for the Montgomery Ward Company.
Here also is a little link to one of the wonderful holiday songs … you can play it while you read this last edition of the SchifferLine for this year…..
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Something to cheer about? Perhaps….but real estate continues to challenge us all
It would be nice to wake up in the morning and discover that California’s unemployment fell to even under 10%….that the stock market was rocketing skyward….that there was peace everywhere in the world….and that real estate prices were near our record 2007 and 2008 levels, restoring the equity many of us have lost during the past three years. Yes, it would be nice. Just not this year, right?
The good news on the Westside is that real sales volumes have held their already-achieved increases over last year — and for the four communities I report on — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air, and Brentwood — year-to-date sales (through November 30) are still up over 13% at $1.833 billion, compared to $1.620 billion in 2010. We have seen several large transactions that account for much of the $213 million increase, but still, we’re up in three out of the four communities in total volume.
One of the most important battlegrounds in the Westside real estate market is the tracking of median sales prices. And although large sales can greatly influence our month-to-month statistical analysis, these sales tend to even out the monthly averages over time. It gets very frustrating to see unreasonable bumps in median sale prices for one of my four communities, because I know that one or two large sales can really give buyers and sellers an unrealistic view of home prices in their community.
Beverly Hills continues to lag behind 2010 median sales prices at 10% south of 2010 #s, which is where BH has been for the past six months; Beverly Hills Post Office has consistently performed well this year, and remains 11% ahead of 2010 MSP through the end of November 2011; Bel-Air has moved back just a touch — remaining even with MSP for 2011 vs. 2010; and finally, Brentwood, which suffered so much in this median-sales-price category for 2010 is still ahead by 2% over last year through November 30.
Recent monthly stats do not bode as well as our year-to-date #s, however. Beverly Hills was down 5% for November 2011 compared to November 2010 — and was down 17% when comparing October 2011 to November 2011 sales (this, of course, accounts for the negative 10% median sales price comparison with YTD numbers for this year vs. 2010). Beverly Hills Post Office, which continues to hold strong for its median sale price at 11% over 2010, was down 17% when comparing November 2011 to November 2010; and down 8% when matching November 2011 #s with October 2011.
Bel-Air, however, was down what appears to be a huge # — 40% — when comparing median sales prices for November 2011 to same month 2010; but was up 23% when tracking November 2011 to October 2011. And finally, Brentwood was up 7% for November 2011 over November 2010; while down just 5% when comparing November 2011 to October 2011.
Our final selling price compared to original listing prices still remains at around 84% — the same figure recorded in 2010 for this time of year. Final sales price reflects a buyers’ market still — which is understandable in our economic climate today.
If you are really concerned about the value of your home in today’s market, I will be more than happy to give you a thorough price analysis of your home based on comps and other statistical information I can provide you. Of course, there is no obligation for this….so please call me.
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So what does this all mean?
Let me share with you the feeling in the professional real estate trenches: At our Coldwell Banker office in Brentwood, you can tell when the business soft, terrific, or just plain rotten. Today? It’s buzzing — we’re seeing more qualified prospects at our open houses — which are humming today. We know that if you’re a seller — a real seller with a competitively priced home — you’re going to sell your home, fairly quickly. Buyers are real — and they’re coming from all over the world to Southern California, particularly to the Westside. We have the best communities, the most beautiful neighborhoods, and superior shopping, culture, and educational facilities in the world. What’s not to like?
I’m busier than ever — had two sales last week, and well, I’m very encouraged about 2012. We have a lot still to be thankful for. Cheer up. It’s the Holidays!
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What happens when you lose power? Be prepared, the Boy Scout Marching Song
Tom Lehrer, the famous balladeer from Harvard in the 1950s said it best: Be Prepared. That’s the Boy Scout Marching Song. With the severe winds howling down the canyons at speeds of up to 147 miles per hour in Pasadena (true story)….we experienced power outages throughout the Westside, but not like in Pasadena, where I have friends who were without power for five and six days! And it was cold, too. Santa Ana winds don’t always mean hot winds and high temperatures.
So, what do you have to do to Be Prepared? In reading the gamut of stories about what our friends had to go through during the power outages; the clear winner was: #1 Batteries! Have plenty of all sizes (AAA, AA, D, Cs) on hand; #2 Keep you cell phone charged. Charge your cell phone whenever and wherever you can (restaurants, movie theaters, car — they all chipped in to help in Pasadena) — plus have a phone on hand that doesn’t require electrical charging (that’s a must). #3 Manual can opener; #4 Cash; #5 Keep your car filled with gas at all times; #7 Extra blankets — in this cold time of year, you can’t stay warm in bed if you don’t have these extra wool blankets; #8 Have warm friends who will invite you for dinner; and let you charge your laptop and cell phones, and perhaps even an extra bedroom; #9 BBQs make great stoves — so get extra charcoal or propane tanks filled if you need them; and finally #10 — keep your friends and family informed of your whereabouts and condition. #11 – Have plenty of emergency lighting ready in your house.. .those flashlights that plug into the wall are great, but we need to keep checking the batteries. #12 – Have plenty of canned food and water available for humans as well as our beloved pets
******************************************************************************************************************************************** This is some information from a recent article in the LA Times re wind damaged trees. This information was provided by arborist Rebecca Latta.
Question: Is there any way to save a tree that has been uprooted by the wind?
It depends on how old the tree is and how much damage there is. If it’s a young tree, with a fair amount of the root plate (the anchor roots) intact, then you can sometimes re-stake or re-guy (rewire) it. I have seen trees re-root. With older, larger trees, it’s more difficult. If there is an uprooted street tree in the front yard and it looks like the root systems are in good shape — no big circling roots or crossing roots that may have caused it to fail in the first place — then it could be a good candidate. If severed roots can be cut cleanly and put back in, sometimes you can establish new roots to go back out into the soil. It’s fairly involved.
Are there certain trees commonly that are more susceptible to falling?
For street trees, I see a lot of pine, large pine, typically those that have a big sail, a fair amount of dense foliage. One of the common ways that trees are pruned here is that they are center stripped. That means taking all the center foliage out, and that encourages the tree to become very dense in the center, making it more susceptible to failure. When the wind hits, rather than going through, it’s like a wall. I saw a lot of cedars in Altadena that failed in the parkway because of root pruning probably done 20 or 30 years ago, when they were making curbing gutters or sidewalk improvements. I saw eucalyptus, mostly big branches dropping. Quite a few Chinese elm. Liquidambars.
Are there some trees that are surviving better than others?
That’s a hard question. Wind damage is often a factor of the age of the tree, decay and how it’s been pruned — or not. Some species don’t seem to drop branches as easily. Oaks seem to be able to take wind, particularly if they haven’t been center stripped. An oak with a full canopy that hasn’t been pruned badly seems to do pretty well. Older oaks go over because people have been watering the ground around the tree, the lawn. Lawns and oak trees are not a good combination.
What should you do with a tree that has a branch torn off?
You can cut it cleanly with a sharp, sterilized pruning tool back to another branch that is at least one-third of the size of the one you are taking off. Or you can take it back to the trunk if there is nothing else. If the broken branch is left hanging, it may fall off at some point. If the branch is not hanging but has a significant crack, that also can be a problem.
Can you put in guy wires or posts?
You can. It depends on the tree. I have seen leaning trees with a post installed underneath; these trees have done well. I prefer to use posts over guy wires because I’ve seen guy wires done badly. They have to be adjusted yearly. I don’t use cables or guy wires in trees very often. If the tree is leaning and it doesn’t look like it’s going to fall, you might put a post under it. The post has to be rated for the amount of weight and has to be designed with a sizable footing so it doesn’t tip. Trees are heavy. If you have a smaller tree that is leaning and it is possible to right it, do that. If it’s a bigger tree, leaning because of the wind, and it looks like it might reestablish itself in that position — and some trees do — that’s when you might want to have an arborist come look at it.
Is the danger to trees structural? Or is it a matter of long-term health?
Both are true. It can be long-term structural. If you have a big crack you can’t see because another tree hit it, that’s an invisible point of weakness inside the tree. Sometimes it will manifest itself in decay later on, a bump that comes out. Right now, the issue is structural. Do other trees that haven’t failed have the potential to fail? Are there trees that can be restored with a pruning? Or do they need to be removed?
Is a tree safer if it has lost limbs in the center?
Not necessarily. If the center has been blown out of the tree, then that means that you may have lower branches that are now big and heavy, so the tree might need a crown restructuring.
What should I look for when I’m checking my trees? Are there things I should look for on the ground?
Look to see if there is cracking in the soil and if there is any pulling of roots or mounding on the side of the tree. If you see mounding and the tree is starting to lean, the tree could be moving. Cracks on the trunk of a tree that is leaning, especially if the crack is on the leaning side, are of great concern. That’s bad. Sometimes a tree starts leaning after another tree falls. Sometimes when you change the environment, you will see things start to move. That’s when you want to pay attention: When trees adjacent start snapping out because they have lost their support. You can also look for unusual things on the tree — bumps, sapping. If the tree puts out dark sap on the trunk, that’s a sign it’s stressed.
Is there anything that people can do now for their healthy trees to protect them from future wind?
Prune in the right season. Pine trees and cedars need to be pruned in the winter. Make sure you don’t remove center foliage that is necessary for structural reasons. Concentrate on the outer two-thirds of the canopy. Don’t let people center strip or top. Those cause wind failures. You have to make decisions about how to prune the tree so it doesn’t drop more branches over time. If someone is going to come in and prune your tree, they should know why they are pruning your tree — not just reducing the height. Trees need the ability to move in the wind. If you shorten a tree, you actually make it more of an immovable object. It is better to have the tree pruned properly and have evenly spaced branches and leave foliage in the center of the tree rather than topping or center stripping. That’s the lazy man’s way to crown. Be there when people do the pruning and make sure they are not topping. Make sure whatever pruning they are doing is an effort to improve the structure of the tree to avoid limb failures.
If a tree has come out and you want to put in a replacement, should you take out the entire old root system?
I would strongly recommend it because there are some fungi that can invade the old stump, mostly oak root fungus. If you can get the old stump out without damaging other trees — remember the root systems of trees are interconnected — do that. Or plant the new tree away from that location if possible. When homeowners are replacing trees, there are some guidelines on how to select trees in the nursery.
Is it better to wait until spring?
Actually, the time to plant here is between October and March. Our limiting season is the summer. You want to get root systems established before the heat of summer. You can also buy bare-root trees now and then you know exactly what you’re getting. You can see it. If the tree is sold in a container, you can’t really see what the roots are doing.
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With this the last issue of The Schiffer Line for 2011… I want to once again take the opportunity to thank you for the opportunity to work with you and for all of the wonderful compliments you have given me. I hope you have a wonderful holiday and a healthy, happy New Year. I look forward to seeing you next year.
