Timely Real Estate News……………………………………………….15 August 2009
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Since so many of you have commented about the expense of my mailing you the information I send you regularly, (The SchifferLine and the Quarterly Report) , and also in order to be Greener, beginning September 1, I am changing how I will be sending you all of this information. I will still be creating the SchifferLine every two weeks, but will be sending it out via “snail mail” only once a month, and the rest of the time it will only be via e-mails.. So if you want to continue to receive the SchifferLine every two weeks, and I do not already have your e-mail address, please make sure that you get it to me….. ceschiffer@aol.com
It’s Back-To-School Time…..How different it is than when I grew up
It seemed simpler then. My Mom would take me down to get notebook paper for my new three-ring binder. I would have my Crayons in my new back pack, and it was very special when I got my very first fountain pen with real ink. Those were the days I remember most at this time of year. Today? Its Play station 3 or Xbox — plus all the new games. Make sure you have the latest version of Microsoft Office. And then there is the newest iPod (and of course, every kid needs an iPhone to stay connected — they’re very cool, aren’t they?) And having the latest Mac Book — if you kid doesn’t already have one — is at the top of the list. It was not only simpler then — I know one thing for sure — it was also a lot cheaper, too. Ah, the good ol’days. How we miss them.
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Lenders holding back on foreclosures…..more than 124,000 in the pipeline
So why are lenders holding back obvious foreclosures from the market? Good question. Theories abound but the most popular one is that if all the 124,000 “distressed properties” were put on the market after they had been repossessed, they would probably create mass chaos in the housing market, driving home values down even further, thus depressing the banks’ assets. According to the Los Angeles Times, June 12, these properties — called “shadow inventory”– are clogging the system. When they will be released? Stay tuned. Again, here is the normal process for the handling of a property that is being foreclosed by the bank…. Default notices are sent to the borrower when they are a few months delinquent in making their payments. This is the first stage of a disclosure and those numbers are up 12% in July ’09 compared to July ‘08. Then comes an auction notice in which the auction date is set. This is the second stage, and this number is about even with last year. There are times when after both of these notices have been sent that the sale can be postponed. This happens if the borrower declares bankruptcy, or the borrower and the lender are negotiating some kind of “mortgage relief” for the borrower. The last stage is the actual sale itself and because of all of the negotiations we read about between borrowers’ and lenders is actually down 40% from last year in the state of California.
So when we are hearing about sales volume picking up in our state, those numbers include all of the lower priced or foreclosed properties that are being sold. That increase in sales volume across the board will trickle up to us, but it will take a little longer as our prices obviously are higher than those in other parts of Los Angeles County which is seeing this great increase in sales volume.
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Let’s review the July MLS stats…..the good news is that sales volume is up 5% for the four areas I cover — Beverly Hills, Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air, and Brentwood. And year-to-date median sales prices for 2009 in three of the areas have improved as of July compared to the end of June, with Beverly Hills Post Office, Bel-Air, and Brentwood all moving nearer 2008 median sales prices. Bel-Air, however, is the only area with a positive of 2% in median sales price over 2008 year-to-date numbers. Brentwood is behind by 5%, BHPO is down 10% and Beverly Hills is down 22% from YTD stats vs. 2008. I regard year-to-date median sales prices as more indicative of the trends we’re seeing on the Westside. In sum, we are moving in the right direction. In looking at the stats, it is always a wonder to me as there are some very large sales that obviously skew the numbers.
To be honest with you, it’s difficult (but I do try…) to bring understanding and sense to the monthly numbers we see from the Multiple Listing Service. For example, Beverly Hills had a drop of 59% in the median sales price from July 2008; Beverly Hills Post Office was up 23% for the same period, Bel-Air was down 22%, and Brentwood was down 30%. These are relatively huge differences if you took them as a true indication of our state of market….so you really have to look at the year-to-date median sales price #s to get a truer picture of our market. As I mentioned before, we have some enormously large estates that fetch from $10 million to $38 million, so when one of these large sales is recorded, it throws everything off. Again, you have to drill down to your own neighborhood — the ‘comps’ that you have for your neighborhood are the only true indicators of how your home might be valued, but again, every home is different.
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Appraisals are affecting home values….be aware
I have previously discussed with you the issues we are having with appraisals. There are plenty of eager buyers out there, and god knows we have the sellers there too, but unfortunately, our partner in the escrow transaction, the appraisers are simply not on board, and it is creating very difficult situations for all of us. In some cases, the banks are bringing in appraisers that are from San Bernardino or Orange County, who simply don’t know our market, and frankly don’t know their right hand from their left (I heard of a horror story the other day where an appraiser from out of the area was standing in the master bedroom, talking to the listing agent, and called the room they were both in “the family room!. Quel dommage! This is the time when an experienced real estate (me!) really earns their salt as we can hopefully work with these folks and sometimes call the lender directly and ask for another appraiser if the first one is really blowing it. In days past, appraisers were our friends, not today…
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My Summer Contest – How Well Do You Know the Gardens in Southern California?
I did not want to make it too easy for you, so I originally did not include the answers to the questions as I had in the first contest. Also when I heard that the Hotel Bel Air was closing at the end of September for renovations for 18 months, I decided to re-issue the contest, by including the answers as I had the first time, extending the response deadline to 1 September, and changing the prize from your choice of the Hotel to now a $100 gift certificate for Whole Foods or Universal Studios… your choice.. so please have fun and take a few minutes to play and maybe you will be the lucky winner!!! Remember, only e-mail responses to be accepted …ceschiffer@aol.com.
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Morgan faces another year at USC….how time flies
I cannot believe it: My niece, Morgan, from Vancouver, BC, is coming back to begin her junior year at the University of Southern California. She is a pre-dental major. It seems like yesterday she faced her freshman year — a bit intimidated I think about coming to a ‘big-city school’ from her private school in beautiful West Van’ where she has grown up. I’ve seen this young girl become a young woman in the past two years — she has more than adjusted: She’s doing great in her studies and social life. What more could an Auntie (especially one from UCLA) want? Also, I don’t know if you saw the segment on the Today show just recently when they are highlighting the Winter Olympics in Vancouver which are just six months away! But the Today show staff will be headquartered at Grouse Mountain which is where Morgan worked this summer, harnessing the hikers to their equipment getting ready for the trail. Fun stuff
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The street life of Sepulveda Pass and the 405 Widening project
Included with this issue of the Schiffer Line is the notice we just received regarding the work that is currently being done and the street closures that will effecting a number of us in the next month. PLEASE BE SURE AND READ IT.
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Green Tips
Please don’t forget that you will need to give me your e-mail address if you want to continue receiving the SchifferLine every two weeks…..ceschiffer@aol.com
While you are busy buying all of that electronic stuff for the beginning of school, please don’t forget that UCLA has a recycling center on campus for all of our electronic refuse.
It is called the UCLA Safe Center, 550 Charles E. Young Dr., West .800-988-6942. They are located off of Gayley Ave, near Pauley Pavilion. Their hours are Thursday, Friday and Saturday 8:00 – 2:00 pm. Electronic waste on Saturdays only. All you have to do is pull up, open up your trunk, they will empty it for you and off you go.
Here is a list of what they accept: paint and solvents, used motor oil and filters, antifreeze, and other automotive fluids; cleaning products; pool and garden chemicals; aerosol cans; all medicine; auto batteries; household (alkaline) batteries; fluorescent tubes and bulbs, thermostats, and other mercury containing lamps. They also accept, computers, monitors, printers, network equipment, cables, telephones, televisions, microwaves, video games, cell phones, radios, stereos, VCR’s and electronic toys.. You will be limited to only six pieces of electronic waste per visit.
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Keep Those Cards and Letters Coming
Thank you for Loretta H for sharing her memories of growing up at the “Del” also! ”Loved hearing that the Del was your childhood home away from home…it was mine as well. My grandparents visited the “Del “with my mom when she was a little girl (which required traveling by train from NY) and my parents took my brother and me every summer throughout my childhood. My happiest memories are of the salt water pool surrounded by sand, the high diving board, the kiddie pool and playground, the Del jewelry store where I would always get a charm for my bracelet, movie night and dinners in the Crown Room, where my brother had to wear a coat and tie! I have brought my kids back several times and the feeling is exactly the same for me when I walk into the lobby”.
As we begin the last half of August, I want to remind you that real estate activity is alive and well, and please take a few minutes to check out my beautiful listings. My fabulous custom home on 11730 Stonehenge Lane in Bel Air Crest listed for $6.8 fell out of escrow the day before we were due to close, so if you have not yet seen it, or if perchance you know someone that might be interested in this great house, please let me know.
Have a great rest of the month, and please don’t forget to send me your e-mail address so that you can continue to receive all of the information I send you… ceschiffer@aol.com