The SchifferLine
Timely Real Estate News……………………1 November 2021
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Home price growth sets records
It is no surprise that home prices are continuing their upward march, setting records every month. August was no exception. According to Case-Shiller, which produces the leading home price index for the industry, reported its index rose 19.8% as demand remains robust despite rising prices pushing some buyers out of the market as demand from home buyers remained robust despite skyrocketing prices.
Demand to buy homes has surged since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic as households looked for more space to work from home and some workers were willing to move farther away to purchase their home.
The number of homes on the market has held well below historic levels, forcing buyers to compete in bidding wars and pushing up home prices. The Case-Shiller index, which measures repeat-sales data, reports on a two-month delay.
In more recent weeks, the pace of home-priced gains has slowed a little, the same axiom holds true, properties that are positioned well, meaning well priced and in good showing condition are still selling very quickly, and those properties that are not are ’lingering on the vine” . The median existing-home sales price in September rose 13.3% from a year earlier to $352,800, the National Association of Realtors said earlier this month.
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Mortgage rate increases surging, too
Mortgage rates have increased in recent weeks, which could slow home-price gains further by raising monthly payments for home buyers. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 3.09% as of last week — which is still low — according to mortgage-finance giant Freddie Mac. As I mentioned previously the new confirming rate for Freddie is $937,500 is now in effect, which will make it significantly easier to get a loan.
Mortgage rates have been on a tear this past month, rising yet again last week to the highest level in eight months. That caused mixed demand for mortgages last week, resulting in no change from the week before. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($548,250 or less) increased to 3.30% from 3.23%, with points decreasing to 0.34 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That rate was thirty basis points lower one year ago.
As a result, refinance demand fell 2% week to week, seasonally adjusted. Volume was 26% lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 62.2% of total applications from 63.3% the previous week.
I anticipate rates are going to climb further and the Fed has indicated that a rate hike is most likely in 2022, so if you are thinking of moving, now is the time to look at options with rate rises on the horizon.
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Home sales rebound in September
Existing-home sales rebounded in September after seeing sales wane the previous month, according to the National Association of Realtors. Each of the four major U.S. regions witnessed increases on a month-over-month basis. From a year-over-year timeframe, one region held steady while the three others each reported a decline in sales
Total existing-home sales completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and
co-ops, rose 7.0% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.29 million in September. However, sales decreased 2.3% from a year ago (6.44 million in September 2020).
“Some improvement in supply during prior months helped nudge up sales in September,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Housing demand remains strong as buyers likely want to secure a home before mortgage rates increase even further next year.”
Total housing inventory at the end of September amounted to 1.27 million units, down 0.8% from August and down 13.0% from one year ago (1.46 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.4-month supply at the present sales pace, down 7.7% from August and down from 2.7 months in September 2020.
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Bel-Air Park — above it all…
Where can one get away from it all, especially in metropolitan Los Angeles? Well, there is one place – you can just about reach out and touch it. It is one of LA’s best-kept secrets – Bel-Air Park. It is in my opinion, one of the most under valued communities in West Los Angeles.
Located in the realm of Sepulveda Pass and sitting atop a beautiful mountain crest overlooking the Getty Museum, Bel-Air Park (sometimes referred to as Upper Casiano) is a guarded community that features 145 single-family homes on wide streets.
Bel-Air Park is situated just off world-famous Mulholland Drive, where many of the homes feature large lots, some with magnificent views. Bel Air Park is adjacent to the world renown American University of Judaism and Stephen S. Wise Synagogue, and school and is a neighborly “community” unto itself.
I have been serving this wonderful ‘hideaway’ community for the past 25 years…and as properties rarely come up for
sale, this is a place ‘worth the wait.’ Please call me for more information on Bel-Air Park — call Carole at 310-442-1384.
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It’s a bird. It’s a plane. No, it’s rain!
Surprise, surprise, surprise. Gomer was right — rain finally made an appearance in Los Angeles, but it was our northern neighbors who got most of this ‘cyclone bomb’ (some called it), partially quenching California’s out-sized need for water.The atmospheric river which arrived on Monday, October 25, delivered huge amounts of precipitation in Northern California, including an all-time record in Sacramento, which saw more than 5 inches of rain.
But the totals were far lower in the Southland’s Los Angeles International Airport on Monday recorded 0.39 inches, which was a daily record but still a far cry from areas like Placer County’s Blue Canyon, which received more than 10 inches in the storm.
“Southern California always is a little bit different,” said Scott Stephens, a professor of fire science at UC Berkeley. “It’s nice that the rain did happen down there too, but Santa Ana winds and other events can dry things so quickly that I don’t think we could say this ends our problems here in Southern California. I do think potentially in Northern California we can.”
But there are warning signs: Drought-dried vegetation was a major element in this year’s fire season, enabling blazes like the Dixie Fire to move so aggressively. Some fuels will actually lose water at the samerate that they actually gain it. On a really dry, warm day, the fine fuels can be incredibly changed according to Stephens.
Were a warm Santa Ana wind event to move into the region, it would essentially act like a blow dryer for the moistened landscape, drying it out again and priming it for further ignition, he added. So please be careful — and follow the guidelines established by the LA City Fire Department for clearing brush from your yard and prepare for the always-present fire season.
My sister & brother who are visiting here again, are telling me that they received five inches of rain in Vancouver in 1 day. Their soil is better suited to absorb that kind of rain then ours which is more clay than actual dirt. The Northwest has suffered from the same drought we have had and have lost a lot of trees. One of the things I have always loved when I visit them is to see all of the magnificent trees. Hopefully by the time I go there next time, some of the damage will have refurbished itself.
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A paradigm shift to a ‘remote culture’?
The exodus started on March 11, 2020, when the World Health Organization officially announced we are in a global pandemic. We are still in it, and this has transformed most of the world as we see it today — workers remain remote, and many of them want to keep it that way. Are we creating a Remote Culture that will permanently change cities and the way we work forever?
One only has to read the appeals from small, Midwestern cities, many of which have lost population to more urban areas, are now aggressively marketing for remote workers to relocate, offering $10,000 to plunk down your laptop in their town. And it is working. Workers appear to stay put at home, some quitting their jobs in record numbers to avoid going back to the daily 9-5 grind and hour commutes. According to PwC, 41% of workers want to stay remote as of August, up from 29% in January.
This has resulted in owners of tall office buildings, for example, to begin addressing their workspace environments. They are realizing it may take a lot of convincing to get workers to leave their comfortable home offices to come back to the office increasingly taking on remodels to attract employees back, adding amenities such as outdoor terraces, private gyms, green spaces, lounge areas, and flexible conference centers.
On the other end, workers are now redesigning their homes and backyards — creating luxurious outdoor living areas with expensive, premium BBQ grills, pizza ovens, new patio furniture and fire pits. Is this going to be a permeant result of the pandemic? It is certainly trending that way.
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My Work a Day World
As you all know by now, I have a very busy Real Estate career, and it keeps me hopping and I Love it. Every day brings something and someone new – it keeps the juices flowing and I would not want it any other way .
At the moment, all my listings are in escrow, and I have tons of buyers with no place to put them! Please help me out! Here are a few of the buyers I am working with: – I have a couple who have two children and three grandchildren, some living in Culver City, and the others in Encino. The grandparents live in New York and need a home “in the middle’ for when they visit. I have another client who needs a three -4-bedroom home for herself, her “special needs” child and their caregiver. Another buyer I have has two friends, and the three of them want to purchase three different properties near one another in the Pacific Palisades, Westwood/Century City areas – 3 bedrooms.
One of the questions I get asked all the time, is this a good time to put my house on the market, and the answer is YES!! Not only do we get the “real buyers” who want to buy a house, perhaps to even spend the holidays in, but with the holiday decorations in most houses, it creates a warm, homey feeling and makes it easier for a potential buyer to picture themselves in the house. SO, if you are thinking of selling your house, please reach out to me…. Carole Schiffer, 310 442-1384
I am very much looking forward to Halloween this weekend and to see the kids and their parents out trick or treating again. Some of the decorations are amazing. I saw one last night on my way to Marina del Rey, which is well worth the drive. It is a house on Barrington, about a block south of Palms Blvd, on the West side of the street. You can’t mis it as there are crowds standing in front taking pictures. Really a lot of fun!
Please do reach out to me with any and all your real estate needs
Happy Halloween… .. Stay safe and careful!
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