Timely Real Estate News………………………………….1 December 2011
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Black Thursday, Black Friday, Cyber Monday — records set, but it ain’t over
Shopping hordes leaped from their Thanksgiving dinner tables and began a literal stampede over the four-day Black Friday shopping period, which now is a four-day event (not just three). Retailers were mildly enthusiastic about the record $52.4 billion consumers shelled out over last weekend, which is up 16% over last year’s $45 billion, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). More shoppers showed up as well — setting another record of 226 million consumers who visited stores from Thursday through Sunday, up from 212 million. Of course, the question is: Are these unduplicated shoppers or do we have the shopaholics going back again and again?
Bargains were the lure, especially electronics — video game consoles, LCD televisions, tablets according to a review of other ‘non-hot’ sale items, discounts averaged less than 15% across the board in most large retailers. Retailers have learned their lessons from last year — don’t go deep too early. And apparently they didn’t.
“It’s clearly a great start to the season, but,” warns Sherif Mityas, with the retail consulting firm of A.T. Kearney, “but we still have five weeks until Christmas.” The ability of retailers to keep up with this moment is the key, he stated. Shoppers may be worn out or out of money now that the first, big binge has taken place. “Retailers have to get people back into the stores and back online after this weekend.”
More importantly, how does this retail story play against the larger health issues of our economy? In a recent survey by Bankrate.com, only 13% of Americans feel more secure in their jobs now than they did a year ago. The strong holiday sales doesn’t guarantee those strong results will hold over for the next several weeks stated Greg McBride, Bankrate’s senior financial analyst. “Consumers are still worried about their savings, job security, debt and net worth,” he added. In the same survey, McBride pointed out that 42% of Americans said they intended to spend less this holiday season compared to last year, while only 10% of Americans said they would spend more.
We are tracking at 2.8% growth rate for November and December — “it’s good, but you’re not popping champagne corks,” Mityas said.
I don’t know about you, but I avoided the mad rush, the pepper spray, and the parking nightmare in the Mall lots. But is there ever a time during this holiday season when we are not dealing with traffic, finding a parking space, and getting to your favorite stores in time to get everything on your list? Of course not! We are a consumer nation, to be sure, and this holiday season appears to be off to a good — if not, great — start! As they say, “….it’s too early to tell!”
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How Did We Get to Black Friday Anyway?
According to Wikipedia Black Friday is the day following Thanksgiving Day in the United States, traditionally the beginning of the Christmas shopping season. On this day, most major retailers open extremely early, often at 4 a.m., or earlierr, and offer promotional sales to kick off the shopping season, similar to Boxing Day sales in many Commonwealth Nations. Black Friday is not actually a holiday, but some non-retail employers give their employees the day off, increasing the number of potential shoppers. It has routinely been the busiest shopping day of the year since 2005,] although news reports, which at that time were inaccurate, have described it as the busiest shopping day of the year for a much longer period of time.
The day’s name originated in Philadelphia, where it originally was used to describe the heavy and disruptive pedestrian and vehicle traffic which would occur on the day after Thanksgiving. Use of the term started before 1966 and began to see broader use outside Philadelphia around 1975. Later an alternative explanation began to be offered: that “Black Friday” indicates the point at which retailers begin to turn a profit, or are “in the black”.]
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Cyber Monday has greatest day in history
Cyber Monday 2011 was the heaviest online spending day in history, with the holiday season as a whole up 15 percent year to date to $15 billion this season-to-date. Americans went a bit crazy this year — as the average order increased 2.6 percent and mobile traffic to retail sites was up 3.9 percent over a year earlier. This translates to 33% increase over 2010 Cyber Monday which is tracked annually by IBM. Other sources (ComScore) pegged the increase over 22 percent. Online spending reached $1.25 billion — a record for online e-commerce sales.
Retailers and brand marketers are going wherever the customer is — and the customers are taking their credit cards out of their wallet and doing their Holiday Clicks. Interestingly, though, half of all Cyber Monday sales were done by consumers while still at work! What do employers think of that? –. Happy Shopping wherever you are!
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Here’s how to start the Holiday Season
This is always a special time of year — so it is also a time to appreciate the many blessings in our lives — from our family and friends and from so many others in our community and work. It is also a time to renew our spirits and souls, especially as we head into the holiday season and a new year. John Ciolino, one of my wonderful associates and mortgage consultants with whom I’ve worked with for years at Coldwell Banker and First Capital Financing, reminds us to consider dedicating specific times of the day or week to family activities that focus on the blessings of the season.
John recommends a website — Kaboose.com — which can help you find a list of special holiday activities to celebrate during our individual choice — Chanukah, Christmas, Kwanza, and New Year’s. You can easily find the right activity for your family by simply downloading a selection of
crossword puzzles, mazes, coloring pages — all for free and you can print them, too.
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Europe’s woes becoming our woes, too?
In a recent article from Iconowatch.com , our ties to Europe’s economy is clearly identified — so goes Europe, so (can) goes America. If global news is anything to go by, Europe isn’t having its finest hour right now, with economies failing, nations backbiting and some consumers raging. But while the politicians bicker about fiscal responsibility and the euro zone dream, more European consumers are quietly finding ways to cope with straitened times.
“Austerity” may be the watchword for politicians, but consumers are determined to avoid the Depression-era privations it suggests. To keep themselves in the style to which they’ve become accustomed, they’re making every purchase work harder, and demanding ever-greater value for money. Anti-waste campaigns and high food prices are taking effect as consumers cook and eat more wisely, and increasing interest in private-label brands shows that Europeans are getting savvier at the supermarket.
But in an unexpected combination of two of our Top Trends, “People Power” and “The Save Me Economy,” Europeans are also increasingly relying on their friends and family to keep home fires burning. Figures from UK insurer Aviva suggest that 31% of Britons are subsidizing their nearest and dearest by L422 a year (Guardian, 16 November 2011). Meanwhile, according to a pan-European study by Fundacion la Caixa, 25% of Spaniards have lent or given money to family members during the last five years (ABC.es, 22 September 2011).
Of course, this is partly down to banks being less willing to lend consumers money, but consumers are increasingly reliant on friends and family across the board. With the recession already forcing young people to live with their parents, and grandparents taking over childcare to help save money, it seems that family interdependency is set to grow further. As the power of friends and family grows, businesses will have to consider not just the influence of one member on another, but the power of a family bloc. Europeans are rightly nervous about the future of their Union as well as the individual economies as the EU leaders try to deal with the overwhelming debt. The good news is that recent political events in Italy and Spain have created a sliver of hope that the EU will eventually work out of this crisis, but it gets down to Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel and other leaders in pushing for stronger, more rigid reforms on spending and country budgets. We’ll see.
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Realtors give thumbs up to Congress for re-instating loan limits formula
The National Board of Realtors applauded Congress for reinstating the loan limit formula and maximum cap for Federal Housing Administration-insured loans for two years for FHA loans only. The loan limits for Fannie Mae- and Freddie Mac-backed mortgages will remain at 115 percent of local area median home prices, up to $625,500.
“As the nation’s leading advocate for homeownership, we applaud members of Congress for restoring FHA’s previous loan limits, which will help reduce consumer cost burdens, stabilize local housing markets and allow qualified, creditworthy borrowers to access affordable mortgage financing,” said NAR President Moe Vissi. “The reinstated loan limits will help provide much needed liquidity and stability to communities nationwide as tight credit restrictions continue to prevent some qualified buyers from becoming home owners and the housing market recovery remains fragile.”
The provision reinstates the FHA loan limits through 2013 at 125 percent of local area median home prices, up to a maximum of $729,750 in the highest cost markets. The floor will remain at $271,050..
NAR believes the reinstated loan limit formula and cap change will help make mortgages more affordable and accessible for hard-working, middle-class families throughout the country, not just wealthy individuals or those in costly markets. Nearly two-thirds of buyers who will be helped by the loan limits provision have incomes below $100,000.
“It’s a misconception that only wealthy borrowers benefit from the maximum cost loan limits; middle-class home buyers living in all areas of the country deserve the same access to affordable mortgage financing and the same opportunity to achieve homeownership that home buyers enjoy in the most affordable regions of the country,” said Veissi. The legislative action will have an impact even in communities with loan limits well below the maximum cap; the reset last month impacted 669 counties in 42 states and territories, with an average loan limit reduction of more than $68,000.
The bill also provides for a short-term extension of the National Flood Insurance Program through December 16, 2011. NAR strongly urges Congress to use the additional time to complete work on a five-year reauthorization of the program, which ensures access to affordable flood insurance for millions of home and business owners across the country.
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Traffic Woes on the Westside
As I drove around last night and this morning, dodging the tree branches and other obstacles in the streets, I thought about other issues we have in dealing with the construction projects going on in our âhoodsâ right now. As you may know, there is a twitter site that provides information on a regular basis as to the changes in the work schedules, etc. Even if you donât tweet, I do recommend that you google the twitter site, www.metro.net/projects/i-405/construction-info/. They actually recommend that we check every FIVE hours as that is how often their situation changes! I know it is not fun dealing with this situation now, but we will get through it, I promise!
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More on the various aspects of Naturalâ cleaning products
Among the most common claims found on cleaning products are the following:
â˘Â   Non-toxic. This implies that the product will cause no harm to the consumer or environment. However, there is currently no standard definition for the term “non-toxic”, and unless otherwise specified, there is no organization independently verifying the claim.
â˘Â   Natural. Though widely found on commercial cleaning products, the term “natural” doesnât necessarily mean much. Thereâs no standard definition for this claim in industry, so manufacturers can use it as they please. Whatâs more, just because something is “natural” doesnât mean itâs less toxic, or non-irritating. Even cleaners that are safe enough to eat, like lemon juice, can be irritating to the eyes or skin.
â˘Â  Environmentally friendly. While this label implies that the product or packaging has some kind of environmental benefit or that it causes no harm to the environment, there is currently no standard definition for term “Environmentally friendly”. Unless otherwise specified, there is also no organization independently verifying this claim.
Biodegradable. This term is somewhat meaningful, but it can be misleading. “Biodegradable”, which implies that a product or its packaging will break down in nature in a reasonably short period of time, has been only loosely defined by the federal government.
â˘Â   Be sure to check the ingredient list. Since manufacturers are not required to list all the ingredients in their cleaning products, unless they are active disinfectants or known to be potentially hazardous, it can be difficult to know exactly what youâre buying. And bear in mind that unlike food package labels, when a cleaning productâs ingredients are listed, the order doesnât necessarily represent relative amounts.
â˘Â  Avoid harmful ingredients whenever possible. Certain chemicals found in cleaning products can pose health and/or environmental risks. To minimize these risks and to choose the best cleaners for your household, avoid the ingredients listed
below.
â˘Â  Nonylphenol ethoxylates (NPEs). When theyâre released into the environment, these chemicals can break down into toxic substances that can act as hormone disrupters, potentially threatening the reproductive capacity of fish, birds, and mammals.
â˘Â   Antibacterials. Some antibacterial ingredients may cause skin and eye irritation, and certain types, such as triclosan, now found widely in the environment, may cause environmental harm by contributing to the emergence of antibiotic resistant bacteria. Some studies have also suggested that triclosan could form dioxin, a carcinogen, in the presence of sunlight, and chloroform, a probable human carcinogen, in the presence of chlorinated water. Whatâs more, thereâs a growing consensus that antibacterial household cleaners wonât keep you any safer from infectious illnesses than regular types. These findings may stem in part from the fact that most infections are caused by
viruses, not bacteria. In fact, experts say, itâs not the type of cleaner that matters in combating germs, but the frequency and thoroughness of cleaning; plain soap and hot water are generally enough to do the job.
â˘Â   Ammonia. Poisonous when swallowed, extremely irritating to respiratory passages when inhaled; can burn skin on contact. (Note: Never mix ammonia-containing products with chlorine bleach. That produces a poisonous gas.)
â˘Â   Butyl cellosolve (also known as butyl glycol, ethylene glycol, monobutyl). Poisonous when swallowed and a lung tissue irritant.
â˘Â   Chlorine bleach (sodium hypochlorite). Extremely irritating to the lungs and eyes. (Note: Never mix chlorine bleach products with ammonia. That produces a poisonous gas.)
.  Disinfectants. This is a catchall term for a variety of active ingredients, including chlorine bleach, alcohol, quaternary compounds, and pine oil and ethyl alcohol. They are regulated by the EPA as pesticides and all have some health effects. Most can also cause problems in waterways by killing helpful bacteria.
â˘Â   Fragrances. May cause water eyes and respiratory tract irriation. Some products are labeled “fragrance free”, which CU does not consider to be a meaningful label.
â˘Â Phosphates. Can reach waterways and contribute to the overgrowth of algae and aquatic weeds, which can kill off fish populations and other aquatic life. Some products are labeled “phosphate-free”, which is considered to be a somewhat meaningful label by CU.
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What is happening in my personal real estate world?
The monthly Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index released on November 30, 2011, showed that all of the California cities in the index posted price declines from August, including Los Angeles and San Diego, which were both down 0.8%, and San Francisco fell 1.5%. Despite these declines, however, home prices in California cities measured by the index are comparatively healthy despite the state’s high unemployment rate. The markets tracked by the index are close to key job centers such as Hollywood and Silicon Valley, which are strong economic engines, and are also near the ocean, where overbuilding has been relatively restrained.
The good news is that I am very busy; I just sold a beautiful home in Mountaingate, and am working with a number of real buyers and sellers. We will have a few properties coming on the market after the first of the year. Please do not hesitate to get in touch with me regarding any questions or real estate needs you may have.
