Timely Real Estate News……………………………………………….2 May 2011
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Media confuse us….but remember: Reality check starts at home
Many of us are just swept away with “information overload” on practically every level – world events, high gasoline prices, and the economy.
The LA Times reported last week that home prices had — again — bottomed out, announcing that all of the home price increases since 2009 had ‘vanished’. The Los Angeles metro area was down 2.1% from the previous year, meaning home prices were not moving upward, but downward — placing a pall over the enthusiasm we were beginning to feel with improving Westside home prices. So where does that put us now?
The reality is that these are aggregated, regional #s — not for your community, neighborhood or property. But when you open up the Los Angeles Times — as many of us still do — we are somewhat shocked when we see headlines that contain words like “vanish”. I have to not only read further — I have to check out our #s. In the past we have talked about the sensational headlines that news agencies use to attract “eyeballs”, and many times it is not until we get “into” the story that we get to the real story. So what is the real story?
What we have seen in 2011 so far (through March) is that some areas — Beverly Hills (up 3%) and Beverly Hills Post Office (up 35%) have seen median sales prices hold steady or post significant gains for the first three months of the year when compared to 2010. Sales volume, on the other hand the four communities I report on — including Bel-Air and Brentwood — is down 24% over 2010 for the first quarter.
What we continue to see each month are moderate-to-wild swings in our median sales prices because we don’t live in cookie-cutter neighborhoods. In the four areas I report on — we will have single family homes selling for $1.3 million in one section of the community, and a few blocks away, an estate will go for $23 million. You know the area as well as I do — and when a blockbuster sells, it can dramatically affect median sales prices. And likewise, when you have a blockbuster month in 2010 and don’t repeat it the next year, you can experience a serious drop in MSP. That’s just the nature of our market.
So how do you get your “reality check”? Call me! As we all know the pricing of a home is not an exact science, but using the tools I have at my disposal, gives me and my clients the best perspective we can possible get on the value of your home. Only an experienced, qualified Realtor who knows your neighborhood can do that. And I get these calls all the time.
For example, one of my neighbors called yesterday and said…”Carole, we want to sell our home and we want to make sure we properly price our home. “We read your SchifferLine all the time.” Of course, I’m flattered, but the truth is – properly priced homes DO sell quickly and efficiently, especially in this market. You may not be motivated to sell, and perhaps you can wait this market out — but who knows how long “this market” will last? While we don’t know answers to that, I think we all know that is not just around the corner. Does that mean the market is dead, or flat, not by any means! I was checking on showings on beachfront property activity in Malibu the other day, and the agent I spoke with told me that they had just sold a house for $28 million!
With so many foreclosed homes coming on the market (over 5 million in 2011 in the US)….this factor continues to affect real estate values. We’ve seen it all over the Westside. I recently attended a real estate conference at the Beverly Regent that was sponsored by First Republic Bank, and their speaker, one of the top ranked economists; Ken Rosen last week, expressed his opinion that the recovery is on its way, slower than most of us would like and there are a number of factors that potentially stall the recovery, but overall the outlook is positive. The Feds are keeping the interest rates down, which will really help get more traction to the housing market. –Call me — I will be more than happy to help you with your reality check!
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Insights from the top……A message from NRT’s CEO
Bruce Zipf — president and CEO of NRT, the holding company for Coldwell Banker, offered keen insights as to the ‘state of the real estate market’ in the United States last week. With more than 140,000 agents nationwide, Coldwell Banker is the nation’s #1 real estate firm. Here is Bruce’s take on where we are:
“Despite trailing last year’s pace, our overall business results have managed to exceed expectations, thanks in large part to a surprisingly resilient high-end market. NRT agents closed 32 homes over $10 million in March, up from 10 last year and six in March 2009.
“…There was particular strength in the high-end segment in the North East, California and Florida regions. Total homes sold over $2 million are up 12%.
“….Consumer perception and confidence have a strong impact on the strength of the real estate market and this perception can be significantly affected by the tenor of the news media. We closely monitor real estate media and we have seen great inconsistency, with some reports touting an improving real estate climate and others pointing to continued pricing declines.
“,…This is continuing to sow uncertainty and confusion out there among potential buyers and sellers…..and normally, we judge the strength of our markets by looking at current sales volume against the same time last year to gain a sense of how things are improving. For many real estate markets, we couldn’t properly compare data from this March and April due to the artificial stimulus effects of last year’s Home Buyer Tax Credit. In May, these effects should lessen and give us our first true glimpse of the market’s strength.” Thank you, Bruce.
As I have been pointing out to our SchifferLine readers for years, we continue to see mixed messages in the media — each reporting on the same state of affairs but using varying measurements or coming to dissimilar conclusions with the same data! It can be frustrating for all of us — and that is why I publish my newsletter twice each month to keep you abreast of the issues we are all facing every day in the market and real estate industry.
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Test your Westside IQ…..and win $100 gift certificate to Trader Joe’s
So you think you know the neighborhood? We’re going to give you a very simple test — and all you have to do is answer a few simple questions:
1. What year was the Santa Monica Pier built?
2. When was Will Rogers State Park created?
3. Who was the architect for the original Getty Villa?
4. Who was the first mayor of Beverly Hills?
5. What is the name of the movie that was based on the Malibu pier?
6. Who was the original developer of Bel-Air?
7. When was the University of California at Los Angeles current campus created?
8. What iconic building was used as one of the main sets in the classic movie, “Chinatown”?
9. Name two world-famous artists who live in Venice
10. Name two honorary mayors of Brentwood
You can find the answers on my web site, caroleschiffer.com. They are in the section describing each area. For example, the question about the Venice artists is in the section about Venice.
All answers need to be sent via email, to carole@caroleschiffer.com. Submit your answers to me by May 15, and if there are ties, I will randomly draw the winner who will receive a $100 gift certificate to Trader Joe’s
Good Luck and Have fun!
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Fewer Californians are entering foreclosure process….that’s good news!
By now, you’re probably wondering just what is the ‘reality’ in California — since learning that there are 5 million foreclosed homes going on the market in the US. But California may have seen the last of the worst of it! California foreclosures eased significantly during the first three months of this year, which lenders pushing the lower number of homeowners into the formal repossession process since just before the start of the credit crunch according to the San Diego-based research firm, Data Quick Information Systems. The first-quarter tally represents a 2.2% decline from the previous quarter and a 15.8% drop from the same time in 2010. Click here to see the Market Trends.
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New York, New York .
A few weeks ago, I spent a week in New York along with 28 other members of GALA which is the Glass Alliance of Los Angeles, a group of studio glass and art collectors. We all had a wonderful and action packed time. In the course of 5 days, we visited 6 personal glass and collections, including the personal residence of the Bronfman family as well as the Chazen family, 4 museums, the opening gala of the SOFA (Sculpture, Objects and Functional Art) show, 3 galleries and 1 hot shop where we were able to watch John Brekke a glass artist who just had one of his pieces accepted at the Rennick Gallery in the Smithsonian in Washington DC! The whole trip was a treat. Of course we all had to indulge in a little theatre as well as some retail therapy!
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Green wedding tips
With all of the excitement about the Royal Wedding, I thought it would be fun to look at weddings from a green perspective.
With weddings often being extravagant affairs, many couples wanting to tie the knot are looking towards making their nuptials more environmentally friendly. Weddings are generally a nightmare of hyper-consumption and produce a great deal of waste. There’s invitations, decorations, gifts, travel, clothing and the list goes on. Many of the items used at a wedding are only used once.
There’s an old saying in connection with weddings believed to have been coined in the Victorian era. It refers to the bride and how she can bring good luck to her marriage by wearing:
“Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue and a silver sixpence in her shoe”.
Invitations and paper Use recycled paper wherever possible for wedding invitations; most companies can offer this option. Also consider treeless paper made from materials such as bamboo, hemp and kenaf. Even the type of ink used for the invitation should be taken into account as some inks can be toxic. Weddings can generate a huge amount of paper consumption, so give careful thought to items that can be reduced. For example, instead of a program for everyone, perhaps one per couple or group.
Communications. Throughout the lead up to the marriage ceremony, you’ll no doubt have news to communicate with your guests about progress, venues etc. Instead of mail outs or bulky inserts accompanying the invitation, consider starting a web site or blog. If you’ve had no experience with setting up a site or blog, companies such as Blogger provide easy to use tools. If you can use a mouse and a keyboard, you can run a blog!
Catering. Where possible, use an organic catering company that sources local ingredients.
Flowers. Flowers used at weddings and receptions have a tendency to be out of season and therefore imported. Transportation and care of these flowers requires extra resources. Try to use locally sourced flowers. Perhaps use potted flowers as these can make a great addition to your home or garden after the big event.
Venue and travel. When selecting a venue, consider where your guests will be travelling from. Try and find a middle point if possible.
Photos Everyone likes a photographic record of a marriage ceremony, so instead of sending out hundreds of paper based photographs, save on postage, processing and toxic chemicals by storing digital images on your wedding blog for family and friends to download as they please.
Good luck in planning for your green wedding, for the big day itself. and may you be luckier than I was and enjoy many years of wedded bliss
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Rolling Spring Break
This year, we have had what I call a “rolling spring break” with it lasting for the entire month of April. As a result it created a somewhat quiet market place, but now that it is finally over, things are gearing up again. I have a good inventory of properties available for ones consideration: my fabulous home on the beach in Malibu now priced at $7,950,000, three canyon homes in Bel Air Crest, one lot in Bel Air Crest, two homes in Mountaingate and one lease in Mountaingate. So please let me know how I can help you.
